I could honestly see this going either way with the Vikings winning this game SU or the Rams covering the 7 if the defense gets some turnovers, but considering all of the circumstances & the line value, I'll take the Vikings +7
The most important factor to me here is that the Rams have played pretty bad teams so far vs 0-3 Oakland, 0-3 Arizona, & the Chargers & now coming off those wins everyone seems to be crowning them the SB favorites already (even though they def are a key contender) & saying that the Vikings have lost it after not showing up in 1 game against the Bills. As a result, we are getting some line value being given a full 7 points in a big pre-playoff matchup.
Aside from the addition of Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are pretty much the same team from last year aside from missing Everson Griffin for this game, which yes hurts them, but the Rams missing 1 of their top CBs in Talib & the other best corner in Peters who will be active, but in no way fully healthy evens things out. LB Mark Barron is out for the Rams as well.
The Vikings got as far as they did last year without Dalvin Cook & his return is HUGE for this game against a Rams D who's weakness has always been against the run & now with possible big issues at corner as well. It seems clear to me that the Vikings overlooked the Bills last week looking ahead to this game & then next week's revenge in Philly & rested some of their key players thinking that they could coast through that one, but they got punched in the mouth. Josh Allen looked like a star in the making & put the team on his back last week & the Bills DL whipped up this Vikings OL, but although the Rams DL is legit, currently they have some of the fewest sacks in the NFL & either way I expect the Vikings OL to step it up this time around. It hurt them a bunch last week that they were in such a big hole off the bat & they had to drop back all game & couldn't even try to run. This week with Cooks back I expect them to set the tone on the ground & chew up the clock & do their best to keep a not deep Rams D on the field & the electric Ram's offense off of it.
The Vikings have by far & away the best defense the Rams have seen all year & with Cooks back & the Rams short-handed I expect them to be able to keep this one close & even if they do end up down 2 scores the cornerback issues for the Rams leave open the possibility of a back door cover.
IMO though I could see the Vikings challenging for the outright here. Think that defense will be FIRED UP & the OL as well. Rams also don't cover the TE well, so Rudolph should be able to get himself some redzone work tonight & Cooks is big bc they are also bad at covering the RB out of the backfield. In a big NFC matchup that could have bye implications I could see both teams trying to establish the run a bit more tonight as well. If so, that would help the underdog in terms of covering a higher number than maybe we should have had.
Honestly the thing I'm most nervous about is LC on the Rams haha, but gotta go with my gut!
Vikings +7 - 4*
(I also sprinkled a little on the ML bc if the Vikings come to play they are coming for the W not just the cover)
GL ALL!
,Let the conspiracy theories start....
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