TNF - Saints / Rams....

Van,

I am just curious how much do you bet per unit I will follow next season with the same amount you win year after year it is crazy!!

Van, Like the play. Got TB to win the division but I jumped on NO tonight when it hit 4.5 and for no other good reason other than the line looks fishy. Glad to see you on them for a real reason.

BOL Brother

@vanzack

 Let's get um Van.

GL big dawg no play for me but Im rooting for you  

This is a tough one leaning toward just taking the over . Not the same saints team in years past , saints in their last 6 are allowing 150 yards per game on the ground so that should give them significant edge toward rams great rushing attack last 6 games . Rams rushing attack averaging 168 yards per game last 4 games 

@Sebastian2019

 A good gambler never openly discloses the size of his unit.

dogsforourbrave.com

Hi Van,

I'd love to learn the basics on how you get to the final of +3.5 is a play but +3 would be a no play.  Does part of your model determine that Saints may lose -3.27 or something and thats the reason? Or would it be something like -2.27 and you give yourself 1 point cushion to whatever the current line is to make it have 'value'?   I started looking at your posts trying to get an understanding of what statistics/data points to start gathering, to try and come up with a system as well.  Long time forum lurker, slow cooking overall loser, inspired to turn it around by your story.  Thanks a bunch.  I did send a friend request as well if helping starting off with some tips is something you'd be willing to do.  Not asking for the secret recipe, just some tips for a noob trying to get it turned around.

Thanks for all you do!

@bitty11

 God bless you. Me and the wife have had five dogs total over our time together. Four rescues. We give to guiding eyes for the blind out of New York. We live in Chicago but we have no kids and will leave everything to them in time. But anyone who can support a shelter/ organization is great. We have family money down the line and will donate all we have. But anyone who can even donate a toy or products to them is great. Have nothing against donating to anyone or anything else. It's just our mission. God bless

@weathersharp

 What's wrong with discussing the size of ones unit? Mines about 8in, that wasn't so hard, no pun intended  

Still stupid I see.

This ideology will keep you from winning.

Good question. I will get back to this when I can answer it in full.

@Cooler999

 Still letting me rent space in your head I see      Everything will be alright little fella 

@vanzack

 love your rationale - as explained above.   Different sides tonite but either way BOL to ya

One other thing I forgot to mention...

A 5:00 p.m. local kickoff prime time game for the Rams is probably the smallest home field advantage in the NFL.

@vanzack

 The 405 Rush Hour Parking Lot  

@DoYouMind69

 Any freeway  in LA as far as that goes

On it @ +5................

95% of my posts here are finished sausage.  This is going to be a 5% how the sausage is made post.  If you aren’t interested in sausage making, skip this sure to be longwinded post….

A fundamental to being a profitable sports bettor vs a rec (losing) sports bettor is that everything is designed to win over the long term.  Define long term as you want – but it is definitely not defined as “this bet”. So you need to throw out the idea that you want to win the single bet in front of you, and develop a repeatable process that gets you over the Mendoza line between winning and losing.

I know – not think – but I know that over 100 bets I have a very high confidence (above 85%) that I will be over 54% W/L.  I also know that my staking will improve on whatever my W/L is.  But I do not know what my next bet % is, or my next 10.  In fact, I don’t care.  This season I am right around 58% W/L, and my units (staking) brings that up a little bit.  I have bet right at 100 games so far.  Every year for the past 20 years roughly the same.  There have been years where I have been down (slightly), but those are rare.

Another fundamental to being a profitable sports bettor is understanding and ACCEPTING that the line / price pair are inextricably connected.  You cannot look at line without price, and you cannot look at price without line.  For the finished sausage, I throw out a line without a price.  But in the sausage making – they pair becomes one. 

The rec gambler says “I need to win this game tonight, and I need a line that will make me win tonight”.  They aren’t concerned with price, and they aren’t concerned about tomorrow.

My repeatable process involves the following steps:

1. For each game, assign every line / price combination a value from 1-100.

I go 3 points up from the widely available “middle” line, and 3 points down.  The point of this exercise is to say that for this particular game, -3 -105 is a better bet than -2.5 -118.  But for the next game, it can be the opposite.  That is where my predictive modeling comes in.  It looks at every game in a vacuum and gives me key predictive point probabilities for that game.

2. Take the value between 1-100 and look at over 20 books for a price on each point spread to see where I get the most value in price.  If my -3 1-105 is a 22, and my -2.5 -118 is a 20, and I bet the line / price combination with the highest score and make that wager.

So tonight…  The probability of the Rams winning by exactly 3 isn’t baked in to the price I have to pay to get 3.5 – which makes it value to play it.  I am looking for edge values in Line / Price combinations that I can bet over the next 100 bets, creating a profitability edge.

The finished sausage is a narrative about defense and spots and coaching and pressure rates.  The sausage making has all of that in it, which is giving me a finished sausage that has repeatable small edges in profitability.

Remember – I don’t care if I win or lose tonight.  I want to be on red when red has 20 spots and black has 18.  So I don’t care about this spin – if I have a repeatable process that gives me those 20 spots on the wheel – lets spin as much as you will let me.

Happy to discuss / answer questions.

@vanzack

 How do you go about grading these price/line combinations. So you have a scale of 1-100. What is the starting point? Is it 1? Is it possible to have a line/price so bad that it’s a 1 or so good that it’s a 100? The examples you gave are one value of 22 and another of 20. How did you arrive at that? Is there a formula that you use? I’m not sure I’m interpreting this correctly so maybe these are silly questions. 

80% of the public is on the Rams 
Last time I saw a number like this

Eagles over Seahawks

How'd the public fair there ?? LOL 

Sharp play my friend 

Van, appreciate that sausage analysis. For those that haven't followed you long, would you agree that to do what you do...

You must have accounts with multiple books (particularly exchanges where +odds are more available). You must have a good feel for which way lines will move and you must be diligent in buying and selling lines as soon as they open until they close. In other words, you work on your games all week. It's not like your predictive model spits out a number, you play it, and call it a day.

I could be way off, but this has always been my interpretation of your process.

BOL tonight VZ and thanks for sharing with us.

@Karmabear1

 Thank you for the nice words. Happy holiday