TNF - Saints / Rams....

Van more specifically a 5pm weekday start time!!!

Not silly at all...

Its just a scale for relativity.  It allows me to see which line price combos are better, and by how much.  100 is an easy scale because 25 is 5% better than 20.  Easy brain math for me when I am actually working the activity of placing wagers.

So it doesnt matter if something is 80 or 20.  If 20 is the highest value I have, it is the best wager for me to make based on predictive analysis that has already been done.

Keep in mind - this is not predictive.  That is done before this - and the predictive analysis assigns a probability to each result.  Then a price is assigned to that result from the marketplace, and then a relative value to that result / price / line combination.

@vanzack

 To start, thank you for sharing so much valuable information and time with those of us like myself that tend to let emotion guide my bets. I find myself tempted by teasers far too often, and would appreciate your insight/opinion on betting teasers?

Thanks 

Yes, yes, and yes.

You nailed it.

PS:  exchanges are key

I describe sports betting as a pizza with a million slices.  Become king of one of those slices.  Dont try to be mediocre at all of those slices.

I am king of my slice.  My slice aint teasers.  I purposely leave a lot of these things out because my box is full and anything else in my box distracts me.  I like to learn about it - but honestly I couldnt tell you the current odds on a teaser.

I can tell you...  That fundamentally a teaser is a parlay of a derivative line.  So I can come up with a line / price value, then do the math on that parlay to tell you if there is value.  If my slice of the pizza was teasers - you can bet your ass this is exactly the calculations I would be going through before I made a wager.

Thanks VZ!

Cheers,

@vanzack

 Great info as always. You giving out the small details of what seems to be a very intricate system is extremely helpful and important to many of us. Thank you 

@vanzack 

What is the similarity between Carr and Stafford?  Both perform very well in clean pockets, and decidedly worse under pressure.  The Rams are towards the bottom of the league in pressure rate and are worst in the NFL on 15+ yards in air pass defense.  The Saints should be able to throw the ball downfield tonight, and avoid turnovers.

The Rams should have success on offense - but they will have to establish the run first because in pass only expected situations they have not been good.

I am not questioning the pick -- I started the week off with NO on the ML (I see great value there).  But because of a couple of reasons that changed my mind, I have throughout the week adjusted the other way.  So, I have no issue with the pick.  But my question is what you are basing the differences in QB performance under pressure on?  Most of my advanced/adjusted/situational stats show them about the same and not much of a drop off -- and even some relative improvement, because they are both experienced QBs.

I agree the Rams have been weak on Pass Rush, but so has NO.  But NO has a tremendous Pass Defense.  But with injuries in the secondary now I think Stafford might be able to get to them.

Either way good luck to you tonight! 

For example, just for comparison:

No pressure/with pressure

ANY/A 

Tua 3rd/6th

Stafford 8th/9th

Allen 11th/12th

Carr 14th/15th

Mahomes 18th/11th

Dak 22nd/2nd

Rtg

Tua 3rd/6th

Mahomes 7th/18th

Allen 9th/14th

Dak 10th/2nd

Carr 11th/16th

Stafford/16th/11th

PE/Play

Tua4th/11th

Mahomes 5th/5th

Allen 8th/3rd

Stafford 10th/7th

Carr 12th/10th

Dak 13th/1st

WAR

Tua 1st/11th

Mahomes 2nd/5th

Allen 4th/4th

Dak 7th/1st

Carr 10th/9th

Stafford 13th/7th

Line hit 4, how much did you buy back, this is the same scenario as the other night the way the line moved..

Thanks for posting Van, love the explanations and insight. Managed to snag +4 -105. If Rams get ahead a TD in the 1Q, looking to hit NO live as well, depending on the line/juice. GL tonight 

I really don’t understand the Saints coach with 56 seconds left in the first half. 

They played a terrible 1 half and could probably have gone to half down 7-10. Instead he goes for 4 down and 5 - around the 40. Carr get sacked and we know the rest.

I think that single idiot-decision lost the game for them. (Maybe they have lost it anyway - but that was really stupid)….

Infrequent loss of late. Ya crunch numbers and go with the result. Next.

The end of the first half decided the game for the most part.

Terrible.

100% coaching decision end of 1h just ended it. On to the next my friend!

The onside kick with almost 4 minutes left in the game was brutal as welll! 

exactly. probably would have covered the 3.5/4 without that terrible play calling at the end of the 1st half.

Saints put up 15 pts in final 6 minutes, i.e. garbage time.  This game was effectively over at half; hindsight being 50/50 the go-for-it on 4th down wouldn't have mattered for Saints backers.  If Kupp wasn't as inebriated as he was, the score could have been worse, so there's that too...

Been saying all year the NFC South teams all should be faded every out of div game vs a decent team - esp on the road.

It's a division of cobbled together trash heap teams with no chemistry and no leaders and no good coaches. When they win a game it's like some 17-16 luckbox job.

Look into the whole division you won't find an emerging star WR like Nacua or RB like Kyren Williams. Pitts should be but there is no one to throw to him. It's all retreads and underachievers and coaches that no one heard of til they got hired. None of these teams can score in the red zone. They probably couldn't score in a brothel with their cocks sandwiched between two Amex black cards.

NO BETS ON SATURDAY (Bengals / Steelers and Bills / Chargers)

I will post Sundays games this afternoon.

Happy Holidays VanZ… one helluva run, I’m thankful for your honest capping and willingness to share your hard work.  
One of a kind Vanzack, Covers is lucky…and so have been those that have tailed you. 
Have a great end of the season, playoffs, and holidays.  Mahalo plenty brutha, I hope Santa hooks you up major.  

Thanks, much appreciated.

Happy holidays to you and yours also.

@vanzack

 Thanks for the great insight on your picks brother.  Always check out your thoughts, it’s much appreciated to see the someone’s thought process.  Happy Holidays

Merry Christmas 

Shame we live on different sides of the world van as I would love to have an in depth chat with you. 

im a pro gambler myself in the uk (haven’t worked a straight job in 20+ years) I mainly bet on worldwide football with uk horse racing and a couple of other sports thrown in. 

I will be honest I gave up betting nfl on my own opinion and have followed you for the last 2 years. The reason for that is I could tell by your conversations on here and twitter that not only do you get the sport you understand gambling and are the best I ever seen at putting the 2 together to make substantial units year after year on a sport that obviously 99% of people fail on.

Like you said exchanges are the way forward. I use Betfair in the uk as I’m banned from all other betting firms (including family members names) where as there are no limits on exchanges and liquidity on most sports is very good.

anyway keep up the good work sir and have an awesome Christmas 

from an admirer in the uk