TNF - Steelers / Browns....

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week.  It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense.  The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers).  I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it.   I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run.  The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively.  They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game.  My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units).  Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all

Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: NFL Season Record +12.5 Units The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf. I like that this happened to them last week.  It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense.  The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers).  I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it.   I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run.  The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight. The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively.  They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL. I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game.  My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%. Browns -4 (2 units).  Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105 GL all In reality Pitt has been pretty good vs the run this year.. Last week shut down the Pats run game till that last 6 minute  drive when they ran it down their throat.. But at that point the defense  were gassed.. After a good stop  then a 40 second drive by Mitch and a quick punt.. being so early inn the season nobody is ready to play the minutes Pitt's defense was ask to play.. That being said Chubb always rolls vs Pitt but this years defense has been light years better than last years.. Off season pick ups and a healthy Lualua ....LOL.. have paid off IMO.. GL.. One of us has a winner.. Plus its do or die for Mitch tonight.. Why leave anything in the bag..I expect many deep throws tonight for better or worse.. He was raked this week in every media outlet for being a dump off king...Five yard Mitch.. Got a gut feeling tonight it changes tonight.. GL..

Quote Originally Posted by BigFrank420:

What about at -4.5 van?

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I actually wrote a big post on this exact subject.....  The value of points and half points.   Lets look at Nitrogen for a minute as an example... Browns -4.5 -101    OR    Browns -4 -118 Clearly, if these are your options - you should lay the 4.5 all day every day.  It is not worth 17 cents to get to -4.  But every situation is different.  At the time I am typing....  The best Browns line out there is Pointsbet at -4 -107 AND Nitrogen at -4.5 -101 (they are essentially the same line).  The best Steelers line out there is Lowvig at +4.5 -107. GL

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by PapiChullo: @vanzack  Nothing lol.  Was more a comment on my personal confidence in my betting. Got ya.  I know I dont need to say this....  But be a goldfish.

Quote Originally Posted by NYMoneyTeam:

Fanduel has it at -4.5 -106  now.   I jumped early on the first half spread Clev -2.5 -125... it's now -3 HT

Quote Originally Posted by camby700:

TJ Watt being sidelined should be a huge factor as well.... Brownies for me as well.... Bol Van

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game

Quote Originally Posted by EuroPro:

wowwwwww cmon van milk the fukkking clock boys.