NFL Season Record +12.5 Units
The Browns lost a game last week against the Jets that they had in the bag. Literally, they gave it away. All they had to do was run out the clock when they were up by 7, and they would have won. But we know what happened - typical NFL mistakes - and they end up losing and getting booed off the field on their home turf.
I like that this happened to them last week. It can only mean good things for this week coming up against a wounded team that is struggling big time on offense. The Browns are very quietly (and very early) the leading rushing team in the league through 2 weeks (against the Jets and Panthers). I am not putting too much stock in that - but it does show that they can potentially move the ball without relying on Brissett to do it.
I think tonight is a run until they stop us type of deal for the Browns, and without Watt - the Steelers defense struggles to stop the run. The Patriots were successful last week running the ball - and I think the Browns will be also tonight.
The Steelers have relied on turnovers and big plays to stay close in both of their games so far - but scoring points is and will be a problem for them. Trubisky is turnover prone, and they have been fortunate to be in the two games only gaining 267 and 243 yards respectively. They are tied for last in the NFL in YPP. They have been very efficient in turning those yards in to points - and keeping games close - but this is not a recipe for success long term in the NFL.
I don't love this game, or the spot - but I do think the Browns are a bit of a bargain at -4 and should win a 23-14 type of game. My simulation model has the browns covering the -4 56%, Steelers +4 40%, and push 4%.
Browns -4 (2 units). Might even be able to get 3.5 closer to game time - Bookmaker currently has -4 -105
GL all
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