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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #2851

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Both games tied at 7 - 7 in the 2ndQ.  Would not have expected that, but mounting injuries for Dolphins and Packers.Adding LIVE BET mid 2Q score tied....timeout after turnover to Giants: NYG +10.5 -350Looks like DOLPHINS lose Tyreek HillDOlphins lose their center and are now without 3 OLine starters!!With 7 mins left PACKERS lines now DOWN to -3  or just -170 ml2 min warning and Dolphins line - tied 7 - 7 with FGA coming to -10 or -850 mlFortunate break for Titans as they get a rare blocked FGA to keep the game 7 - 7 with less than 2 mins left.......If you backed Dolphins on spread over 12 that looks in serious jeopardy now...
PACKERS got major lucky when NYG went on 4th and 1 on their side of the 50 then ran a sweep right to LOSE a yard....

 
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Posted: #2852

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Both games tied at 7 - 7 in the 2ndQ.  Would not have expected that, but mounting injuries for Dolphins and Packers.Adding LIVE BET mid 2Q score tied....timeout after turnover to Giants: NYG +10.5 -350Looks like DOLPHINS lose Tyreek HillDOlphins lose their center and are now without 3 OLine starters!!With 7 mins left PACKERS lines now DOWN to -3  or just -170 ml2 min warning and Dolphins line - tied 7 - 7 with FGA coming to -10 or -850 mlFortunate break for Titans as they get a rare blocked FGA to keep the game 7 - 7 with less than 2 mins left.......If you backed Dolphins on spread over 12 that looks in serious jeopardy now...PACKERS got major lucky when NYG went on 4th and 1 on their side of the 50 then ran a sweep right to LOSE a yard....
.....then Jordan Love tosses a bad throw for a GIANTS int to their own 44 with 4 mins  left

 
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Posted: #2853

@fubah2

 

 Do you think 2H under a good idea with hill and o line starters out?

 
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Posted: #2854

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Both games tied at 7 - 7 in the 2ndQ.  Would not have expected that, but mounting injuries for Dolphins and Packers.Adding LIVE BET mid 2Q score tied....timeout after turnover to Giants: NYG +10.5 -350Looks like DOLPHINS lose Tyreek HillDOlphins lose their center and are now without 3 OLine starters!!With 7 mins left PACKERS lines now DOWN to -3  or just -170 ml2 min warning and Dolphins line - tied 7 - 7 with FGA coming to -10 or -850 mlFortunate break for Titans as they get a rare blocked FGA to keep the game 7 - 7 with less than 2 mins left.......If you backed Dolphins on spread over 12 that looks in serious jeopardy now...PACKERS got major lucky when NYG went on 4th and 1 on their side of the 50 then ran a sweep right to LOSE a yard.........then Jordan Love tosses a bad throw for a GIANTS int to their own 44 with 4 mins  left
LIVE BET early 3Q after only 4 1/2 mins, Miami driving, timeout for injury:  DOLPHINS -2.5 - 290

 
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Posted: #2855

Quote Originally Posted by Triman2022:

@fubah2    Do you think 2H under a good idea with hill and o line starters out?

Good Q........  NO.....Miami O vs that lucky D suggests more scoring!!

 
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Posted: #2856

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Triman2022: @fubah2    Do you think 2H under a good idea with hill and o line starters out? Good Q........  NO.....Miami O vs that lucky D suggests more scoring!!
In fact the alt-line total is down to 31.5 and I am considering taking the OVER  ....undecided....

 
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Posted: #2857

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Triman2022: @fubah2    Do you think 2H under a good idea with hill and o line starters out? Good Q........  NO.....Miami O vs that lucky D suggests more scoring!!
....and now that Dolphins phuckitup on first down inside the 8 yd line, I'm obviously not so sure.....Dolphins ripe for a loss now, as they surely WILL NOT cover DD spread......hedge time coming for me....

 
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Posted: #2858

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

LIVE BET mid 2Q score tied....timeout after turnover to Giants: NYG +10.5 -350

WINNER! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #2859

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Triman2022: @fubah2    Do you think 2H under a good idea with hill and o line starters out? Good Q........  NO.....Miami O vs that lucky D suggests more scoring!!....and now that Dolphins phuckitup on first down inside the 8 yd line, I'm obviously not so sure.....Dolphins ripe for a loss now, as they surely WILL NOT cover DD spread......hedge time coming for me....

DOlphins got bigtime LUCKY with gaining two fumbles deep in Titans end to score 2 easy TDs......LUCK in a tie game.....BUT Levis and Titans *EARN* two TDs in final 5 mins to take the lead......

 
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Posted: #2860

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Fubah's NFL week 14:

an_police NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression. In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...

As I wrote above, I fully expected REGRESSION this week (no *Best bets) - so I chopped my bet sizes almost in half - and just as predicted, regression happened, losing -8.9 units......but thankfully I was wise enough to minimize the losses by cutting bet sizes....This almost ALWAYS happens during a HOT streak like the 60 - 14 streak I was riding....hence the cut in bet sizes expecting losses to follow! an_lightRecord-wise, I am still well over +100 units  on 176 winners vs just 80 losses

 
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Posted: #2861

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Fubah's NFL week 14:

an_police NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression. In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results... As I wrote above, I fully expected REGRESSION this week (no *Best bets) - so I chopped my bet sizes almost in half - and just as predicted, regression happened, losing -8.9 units......but thankfully I was wise enough to minimize the losses by cutting bet sizes....This almost ALWAYS happens during a HOT streak like the 60 - 14 streak I was riding....hence the cut in bet sizes expecting losses to follow! Record-wise, I am still well over +100 units  on 176 winners vs just 80 losses

....and upon further review, I expect  regression to continue.  This could take the form of several big losses all at once this coming week, or a couple net losses this week and a couple more net losses in succeeding weeks......but from my nearly 30 year experience the next few weeks are likely to flirt with a net overall loss... However, with that anticipation due to my superHOT streak, I will continue to chop down my bet sizes so as to minimize real $$ losses an_2drinks

 

 
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Posted: #2862

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression. In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results... As I wrote above, I fully expected REGRESSION this week (no *Best bets) - so I chopped my bet sizes almost in half - and just as predicted, regression happened, losing -8.9 units......but thankfully I was wise enough to minimize the losses by cutting bet sizes....This almost ALWAYS happens during a HOT streak like the 60 - 14 streak I was riding....hence the cut in bet sizes expecting losses to follow! Record-wise, I am still well over +100 units  on 176 winners vs just 80 losses....and upon further review, I expect  regression to continue.  This could take the form of several big losses all at once this coming week, or a couple net losses this week and a couple more net losses in succeeding weeks......but from my nearly 30 year experience the next few weeks are likely to flirt with a net overall loss... However, with that anticipation due to my superHOT streak, I will continue to chop down my bet sizes so as to minimize real $$ losses
I still expect the 49ers to be a good bet on the ML this week, but passing on an ATS play due in part to so many lafavs failing to cover.

 
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Posted: #2863

Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs

Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge. 

Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge?

This one is a true coin flipper.

 

We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube...

....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises

 

Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend.

BoL with your bets fellas  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #2864

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas
WOW!

Two TDs scored by LV mid-way through the 1st Q (one off a fortunate fumble rec)

then they gain ANOTHER fortunate fumble rec on Charger side of the field and in FGA position at the least! an_getaway

 
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Posted: #2865

Good luck fubahpeace_5 

BACK PATTING and KISSING threads are like passing HAM SANDWICHES around over and over-wall
 
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Posted: #2866

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise

I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas

u shoulda bet the raiders !

 

 

 

 

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #2867

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise

I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas

u shoulda bet the raiders !

 

 

 

 

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #2868

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas

 

u shoulda bet the raiders !

My crystal ball not working so I couldn't.   Trying to get it fixed

35 - 0 in the first half  despite all their injuries.

 

 
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Posted: #2869

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas   u shoulda bet the raiders ! My crystal ball not working so I couldn't.   Trying to get it fixed 35 - 0 in the first half  despite all their injuries.
HT 42 - 0  Yeesh!

Anyway I forgot my NFL ratings this week.   Will have them up later...

 
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Posted: #2870

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas   u shoulda bet the raiders ! My crystal ball not working so I couldn't.   Trying to get it fixed 35 - 0 in the first half  despite all their injuries.HT 42 - 0  Yeesh! Anyway I forgot my NFL ratings this week.   Will have them up later...

 

56 - 7    and we still have a whole Q to go an_getaway

 
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Posted: #2871

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Chargers @daaaRaaayyduuhhs Plenty of key injuries makes this very difficult to evaluate for a real edge.  Sure I could guess but what's the point without an edge? This one is a true coin flipper.   We don't have to bet just because a game is on the tube... ....although I always reserve the option to bet ingame if a decent play arises   Otherwise I'll PASS and look for better opportunities this weekend. BoL with your bets fellas   u shoulda bet the raiders ! My crystal ball not working so I couldn't.   Trying to get it fixed 35 - 0 in the first half  despite all their injuries.HT 42 - 0  Yeesh! Anyway I forgot my NFL ratings this week.   Will have them up later...  

 

56 - 7    and we still have a whole Q to go

...And not even 10 seconds of game clock later  63 - 7

 
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Posted: #2872


Fubah's Week 15:  

YTD   176 - 80  an_2drinks  over +108 units

Vikings @BENGALS

Vikings are changing their QB from a career backup (Dobbs) who is a dual threat!!, to another career backup who is not a dual threat whatsoever. While the move is to shakeup the team, it may backfire now with much fewer dual threat rush yards coming their way. Mullens is unimpressive/mediocre. Vikings could only muster a measley 3.3 ypp against a bad Raiders team, then needed +3 net turnovers, to win 3 - 0. Prior to that they lost AT HOME to an even weaker team (Chicago) Now, they are removing their dual threat from the offense and facing the toughest team they have played on the road since week 2 (a 6 point loss) an_lightPLUS, Vikes just lost their star RB (Mattison)


Meanwhile, despite losing Burrow the Bengals are humming just fine. After a 6 pt loss in his first ever start, the rookie Jake Browning, then led his team, ON THE ROAD, to a convincing victory over a good team (Jags) - which only went to OT because a tipped ball INT gave Jags a freebie from the 9.  Otherwise, Bengals outplayed Jags by +115 net yds despite that INT!


Then last week, at HOME against the then 7 - 5 COLTS, in only his 3rd start of his career, Browning leads his team to a 34 - 14 blowout win on +113 net yds and a whopping 6.8 ypp!
Browning has not looked BAD in any of his 3 starts, and won the most recent two by generating 34 pts each.

Meanwhile, the Bengal defense, ON HOMEFIELD, limited the Steelers to just 16 and then only 7 vs the Colts!
Now that tough homefield Bengals defense faces a shaky/mediocre Vikings offense who are WITHOUT their best RB (Mattison) and without an important dual threat at QB!

Of course, anything can happen in football on any given day. Net turnovers, other lucky breaks, key injuries, etc. And that could happen Saturday too with the hometown Bengals getting upset by bad luck!
But all else being equal, the Bengals should have a decided edge here and should prevail (notwithstanding aforementioned breaks, etc)

BENGALS -163      *BB  3u


More NFL to come ...

 
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Posted: #2873

@fubah2

 really good write up on bengals !! thumbs_up   ill grab them too 

 

 

 

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Posted: #2874

Fubah's  super-duper-pooper, deep-dive-forensic, totally friggin awesome, fully guaranteed NFL Ratings for Week 15:
(in ranked order left to right within each tier)

Top tier:   an_2drinks  49ers, Dallas, Balt ....... Philly ...... KC

2nd tier:  thumbs_up   Miami, Detroit, Buffy, Cinci,

Mediocre: an_popcorn   Houston, Cleve, Jags, Minny, GB, Sea, NOR, Pitts, Indy, Denver, Tampa, Rams, Atlanta,

4th tier:   thumbs_down  LV, AZ, Chicago, Tenn, Jets, LAC, Wash,

Bottom:   an_getaway   NYG, NE, Carolina

 


More to follow ...

 
 
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Posted: #2875

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Fubah's  super-duper-pooper, deep-dive-forensic, totally friggin awesome, fully guaranteed NFL Ratings for Week 15:(in ranked order left to right within each tier) Top tier:     49ers, Dallas, Balt ....... Philly ...... KC 2nd tier:     Miami, Detroit, Buffy, Cinci, Mediocre:    Houston, Cleve, Jags, Minny, GB, Sea, NOR, Pitts, Indy, Denver, Tampa, Rams, Atlanta, 4th tier:     LV, AZ, Chicago, Tenn, Jets, LAC, Wash, Bottom:      NYG, NE, Carolina   More to follow ...
 

I like that top tier sequence, Fubah. Either San Francisco or Dallas might get to the big dance and grab the Lombardi Trophy, it has been very long time for both cities to hoist that Trophy since '90s. 2024 is prolly their year of champion for either city, we shall see. 

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