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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #1426

NYG start from their own 5 with 3:14 left down 18 pts

....and they go  3 & out ...

 

an_lightTOTAL DOMINATION by Niners.... as predicted pre-game  an_clap

 

 
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Posted: #1427

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Niners, a top NFL team ranked either #1 or #2, defeated Steelers by 21 and Rams by 7 - BOTH ON THE ROAD! - and importantly, both teams rated significantly higher than the NYG!   Meanwhile, NYG - when they played an equally high rated Dallas team, lost that 0 - 40 ON HOMEFIELD -- and that was WITH Saquan Barkley and a fully intact offensive line! Tonight: no Barkley, and the all important left side of the OL will be staffed by backups.   Now, on a short week to prepare, Giants must travel minus 3 offensive starters anda LB, to play a team rated at least as good as Dallas!  

 

Ok, I'm sold SF  -570

@Zeus4par 

Good call an_clap     LOL

 
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Posted: #1428

Quote Originally Posted by :

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:Ok, I'm sold SF  -570

 

@fubah2      good writeup to make the case

ya count me in too     

niners -535

lets get em tonite !

@KellyM_1964

Great call, Kelly!      an_clap    

LOL

 
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Posted: #1429

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Decent prop for TNF which I am considering is 2nd half to be highest scoring half for -105 as I feel that on a short week teams will be a little less crisp offensively but just as strong defensively......at least for a half..... I don't expect 49ers to have a huge lead by HT.....and if they are behind or tied, then the 2H will definitely be the higher scoring half...... If I don't play it pregame, it's worth watching for an ingame opp

Though not posted here,  this prop paid off as did my other one for Niners to score over 23.5 an_boggienight

....but neither officially posted here.

 
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Posted: #1430

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

End of 3 Qs.

7 full drives each    (kneel down doesn't count as a drive)

SF 21 first downs, NYG only 8

SF 353 yards,   NYG only 127

SF 5.9 ypp,      NYG only 3.7

Drives of 49+ yds:  SF 5   vs. NYG 1

No turnovers.
One "significant lucky break" each

BTW, these type of stats -- clearly favoring the home team over the lower rated visitors -- is more or less what I am predicting we should see in the Steelers @RAIDERS  Sunday night game....albeit maybe to lesser margins

I have no idea what the actual score will be.  And there's no guarantee the RAIDERS will prevail at home over a weaker team, because who knows, the lucky Steelers just might gain fantastic good fortune once again!  It happened last week, it could happen again! 

No promises on the RAIDERS!! fingershake  They could do a nose dive off the 10 meter board into an empty pool like I did with colleges last week! an_speechless

cool Still I like my chances. My money is already on duhh Raaayyyduhhs an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #1431

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Niners, a top NFL team ranked either #1 or #2, defeated Steelers by 21 and Rams by 7 - BOTH ON THE ROAD! - and importantly, both teams rated significantly higher than the NYG!   Meanwhile, NYG - when they played an equally high rated Dallas team, lost that 0 - 40 ON HOMEFIELD -- and that was WITH Saquan Barkley and a fully intact offensive line! Tonight: no Barkley, and the all important left side of the OL will be staffed by backups.   Now, on a short week to prepare, Giants must travel minus 3 offensive starters anda LB, to play a team rated at least as good as Dallas!     Ok, I'm sold SF  -570 @Zeus4par  Good call      LOL

@fubah2

Thanks for the 49ers tip!   moneybag an_cheers

 

 
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Posted: #1432

Wonderful night Fubah2an_worship

 
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Posted: #1433

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Steelers completed 31 passes for 232 yds AT HOME and only scored 7 against SF, and lost by 23. Rams completed 34 passes for 307 yds AT HOME and scored 23 against Sf, but still lost by 7   Giants completed only 17 for 110 yds playing AT HOME vs tough Dallas D, and lost 0 - 40! Giants were losing 28 - 7 in mid 3rd Q on the road playing arguably one of the WORST teams in the NFL... Tonight NYG are on the road against a very tough Niners D... much stronger than Cards. Another way to look at this TNF matchup is this: Niners, a top NFL team ranked either #1 or #2, defeated Steelers by 21 and Rams by 7 - BOTH ON THE ROAD! - and importantly, both teams rated significantly higher than the NYG. Meanwhile, NYG - when they played an equally high rated Dallas team, lost that 0 - 40 ON HOMEFIELD! Now, on a short week to prepare, Giants must travel to play a team rated as good as Dallas!        

  NINERS -555 su    *Best Bet

Winner  moneybag

 

 
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Posted: #1434

Good luck on Sunday, I like your picks and writeups. You are one of the best!moneybag

 
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Posted: #1435

Start week YTD  9 - 5


WEEK 3 NFL:


W     Niners -555                    *BEST BET moneybagan_2drinks

Raayduhs +1 -115                  *BEST BET
Las Vegas -125 ml                   *BEST BET
Lions -1 -165
Dolphins -2 -270
Vikings -110
Packers -125                          *BEST BET


an_light*Caveat: nothing is a sure thing! Beware: These might lose! an_nailbiter... Which is why I NEVER suggest members tail my bets. Proceed at your own risk.

 

PS. I will respect our forum by NOT cluttering-it-up with a whole bunch of unnecessary new threads every week, but instead I post all my bets conveniently in just THIS thread.

 
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Posted: #1436

bol my friend

 
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Posted: #1437

WEEK 3  continued from above... 10 - 5 YTD

 

cool Some thoughts to share, according to my particular handicapping style

Comments are welcome!

For my style, these incredients are keys:
  • my team ratings (not #ranking, which can be misleading)
  • the venue (and previous venues)
  • quality of opps your opponent played and the outcomes
  • if the outcomes truly reflect the strength of play or "lucky breaks" (and for this I study the game stats and the play-by-play of every drive!)
  • key injuries

TNF. Already posted lengthy diatribe about how I thought the NYG were over valued from escaping with a fortuitous win over the bottom-dwelling Cards.
My BEST BET on the 49ers won easily.

 

Texans @JAGUARS I'm passing here. I expect the Jags will win su but that line is high and right where it should be.... and the moneyline is too high even for me. LOL

 

Falcons @LIONS We all know from the last half of their season last year and including beating the SuperBowl champs in KC that the bigger surprise might have been coming home and playing EVEN UP with the mediocre Seahawks but suffering a letdown inovertime in front of their rabid home believers, must've been humiliating.....It's rebound time for an above average team!!
And Detroit faces a Falcon squad not only that are rated very slightly lower, but who are now due for a loss - after beating a weak Panthers squad then narrowly escaping with a 1 pt win over the Packers - enjoying the benefit of home field for both. Now they are the roadie. On a neutral field I would rate Detroit as a one point fav over Atlanta. But at home the 3/3.5 line is spot on -- so I won't touch it.....but I do like the LIONS to win it. Yes, Mongomery is out but Gibbs should fill in fine.
I already posted my bet on Detroit.

 

Titans @BROWNIES   PASS!!! an_police  Definitely! And YOU should too.  Browns without top RB CHUBB and nobody on the roster can even come reasonably close to filling his shoes!! Any guesses as to how the Browns will fare without CHUBB are just that -- GUESSES.  Not sound handicapping.  Good luck with your guess, I suppose, but I'm staying away from a coin-flipper.  There's no "value" in a coin-flip bet.  Waaay too iffy for me, and that's coming from a guy who has no issue with risking huge chalk!  Gotta pick my spots and this one is a coin-flipper.

 

More to come....   I am a slow typist and I'm really tired at this ungawdly hour not having slept yet

Comments welcome! football_c1

 

 
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Posted: #1438

continued...

Colts @RAVENS This one is easy for me to pick (but I do NOT guarantee the results) A Colts team rated in the bottom quarter of the league traveling to face a team skirting the edges of the top 6 elite teams. Colts will be without the skill set AND dual-threat legs of Richardson at QB and settle for moustache Minshew. Colts were outplayed and lost AT HOME to mediocre Jags, then hit the road to face a weakling and win. But now they are still on the road but facing a much, much, MUCH tougher opponent then either Houston of Jacksonville! Ravens whacked Houston and then beatup Cincinnati! They should be 3 - 0 after Sunday. Sure they could be upset. Sht happens sometimes, and we never know about the "lucky breaks." But I'm fine with the moneyline risk here...
Adding RAVENS -375


BILLS @COMMANDOS Buffalo, arguably one of the top 6 teams in the NFL. Washington is mediocre. Bills got their wakeup call in game 1 when they lost in OT to the lucky JETS who had lost their starting QB! That outcome was all wrong and the Bills came back determined to prove they were still an elite team - crushing the Raiders. They are still determined and focussed as an elite team -- there will be no let down here! But the Commandos are coming off 2 wins on a soft sched. They barely defeated the weakass, undermanned Cards by 4 at home then needed a net of 2 turnovers to edge the very mediocre Broncos on the road by only 2 pts. Well, now they face an elite team still determined and smarting from that shocking first game loss on the road to a mediocre JETS team. The line of 6 is spot on and I won't touch either side of it, but I don't see this mediocre team upending the powerful BILLS, who are focussed on not letting a repeat of game 1 occur again.
I am adding: BUFFALO -240 to my bets

Also adding Miami -260 and Packers -1

 

More to come.... Comments Welcome football_c1

 

 

 
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Posted: #1439

Covers will not let me log in so I can't see my E-mails from you. I put the money line bets in. Thanks for sharing you are one of the best on covers

 
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Posted: #1440

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

continued... Colts @RAVENS This one is easy for me to pick (but I do NOT guarantee the results) A Colts team rated in the bottom quarter of the league traveling to face a team skirting the edges of the top 6 elite teams. Colts will be without the skill set AND dual-threat legs of Richardson at QB and settle for moustache Minshew. Colts were outplayed and lost AT HOME to mediocre Jags, then hit the road to face a weakling and win. But now they are still on the road but facing a much, much, MUCH tougher opponent then either Houston of Jacksonville! Ravens whacked Houston and then beatup Cincinnati! They should be 3 - 0 after Sunday. Sure they could be upset. Sht happens sometimes, and we never know about the "lucky breaks." But I'm fine with the moneyline risk here...Adding RAVENS -375 BILLS @COMMANDOS Buffalo, arguably one of the top 6 teams in the NFL. Washington is mediocre. Bills got their wakeup call in game 1 when they lost in OT to the lucky JETS who had lost their starting QB! That outcome was all wrong and the Bills came back determined to prove they were still an elite team - crushing the Raiders. They are still determined and focussed as an elite team -- there will be no let down here! But the Commandos are coming off 2 wins on a soft sched. They barely defeated the weakass, undermanned Cards by 4 at home then needed a net of 2 turnovers to edge the very mediocre Broncos on the road by only 2 pts. Well, now they face an elite team still determined and smarting from that shocking first game loss on the road to a mediocre JETS team. The line of 6 is spot on and I won't touch either side of it, but I don't see this mediocre team upending the powerful BILLS, who are focussed on not letting a repeat of game 1 occur again.I am adding: BUFFALO -240 to my bets Also adding Miami -260 and Packers -1   More to come.... Comments Welcome

Commanders my friend, not "Commandos" an_roll_laugh

I also took the Bills on the moneyline.  peace_5

 
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Posted: #1441

Quote Originally Posted by Danburke:

bol my friend

And BOL to you too!  clover an_cheers

Although my Packers bet is looking like a big fat loser already. ugh

 
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Posted: #1442

You can't win them all, get them in the afternoon games.moneybag 

 
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Posted: #1443

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

You can't win them all, get them in the afternoon games.

Yeah, sht....I've already written off my Packers as a big fat loser.

 

Also concerned with the RAVENS, struggling at home vs the very mediocre Colts.....but that as a DIRECT result of two fortuitous Ts going in favor of the Colts.....so on balance the Ravens are still in it and a TD puts them ahead (I hope!!) an_nailbiter

 

Added: SEAHAWKS -215

 
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Posted: #1444

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1: You can't win them all, get them in the afternoon games. Yeah, sht....I've already written off my Packers as a big fat loser.   Also concerned with the RAVENS, struggling at home vs the very mediocre Colts.....but that as a DIRECT result of two fortuitous Ts going in favor of the Colts.....so on balance the Ravens are still in it and a TD puts them ahead (I hope!!)   Added: SEAHAWKS -215
Panthers will be without Bryce Young behind center.  Mixed views on that.  Dalton is a savvy vet and reasonably accurate on throws downfield.  BUT....the already weak Panthers offense will surely miss the dual threat of Young, which as we all know puts added pressure on defenses, normally in favor of any offense!  Don't get that with aging Andy Dalton!   Ta boot, I have Seahawks already rated much higher than the Panthers - probably even a little higher now with Young out - and the venue is comfy homefield for Carroll and co.

Of course, this is NFL and anything can happen on any given Sunday.  Lucky breaks or Ts could easily flip this to favor Panthers.  But I figure that is their only path to a win as they are over matched in Seattle.  I almost made this a *BEST BET......maybe as the game proceeds I may, but I am wary of an unanticipated letdown by Seahawks - when they really shouldn't....

BOL with your bets today, fellas! clover thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #1445

an_light CHIEFS star RB, Pacheco, is confirmed OUT this afternoon.

 
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Posted: #1446

HOLY SH!T BATMAN....is it possible?!?!? surprised

 
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Posted: #1447

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

HOLY SH!T BATMAN....is it possible?!?!?

TOUCHDOWN PACKERS!!

             new_jaw_drop

 
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Posted: #1448

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

You can't win them all, get them in the afternoon games.

MANDY, buddy!!

          an_cheers

 
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Posted: #1449

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

WEEK 3  continued from above... 10 - 5 YTD   Some thoughts to share, according to my particular handicapping style Comments are welcome! For my style, these incredients are keys:  • my team ratings (not #ranking, which can be misleading)  • the venue (and previous venues)  • quality of opps your opponent played and the outcomes  • if the outcomes truly reflect the strength of play or "lucky breaks" (and for this I study the game stats and the play-by-play of every drive!)  • key injuries TNF. Already posted lengthy diatribe about how I thought the NYG were over valued from escaping with a fortuitous win over the bottom-dwelling Cards. My BEST BET on the 49ers won easily.   Texans @JAGUARS I'm passing here. I expect the Jags will win su but that line is high and right where it should be.... and the moneyline is too high even for me. LOL   Falcons @LIONS We all know from the last half of their season last year and including beating the SuperBowl champs in KC that the bigger surprise might have been coming home and playing EVEN UP with the mediocre Seahawks but suffering a letdown inovertime in front of their rabid home believers, must've been humiliating.....It's rebound time for an above average team!! And Detroit faces a Falcon squad not only that are rated very slightly lower, but who are now due for a loss - after beating a weak Panthers squad then narrowly escaping with a 1 pt win over the Packers - enjoying the benefit of home field for both. Now they are the roadie. On a neutral field I would rate Detroit as a one point fav over Atlanta. But at home the 3/3.5 line is spot on -- so I won't touch it.....but I do like the LIONS to win it. Yes, Mongomery is out but Gibbs should fill in fine.I already posted my bet on Detroit.  

Winner!  moneybag an_2drinks

 

 
 
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Posted: #1450

UN-believable!!!

You'll see the replays and read the comments online but the Colts just TACKLED an open Ravens reciever on 4th and 3 and the refs refused to throw a flag.......On air official Gene Saratore  disagrees with the onfield refs -- saying it should have been a penalty and the Ravens would have advanced the ball into FGA territory with a first down.....

Instead that disgrace allowed the Colts to move downfield into FGA range.....

 

The Canadian League allows challenges on pass interference.  If we had that, it would have been over turned. Travesty!

 

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