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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question tonight MNF

    MLStreaker
    trainwreck66
    fadeORdie
    guyhopestowin
    TheAction
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2666
    Posts: 21
     
    MLStreaker
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 7:37 AM ET #1


    Should I hedge half and collect $800 or will the under hit??

    $10.00 to win $1,582.87












    Pending
    8 Team Parlay




    Win10/4/15 9:30am  NFL Football  251 New York Jets -135* vs Miami Dolphins 




    Win10/4/15 1:00pm  NFL Football  256 Atlanta Falcons -245* vs Houston Texans 




    Win10/4/15 1:00pm  NFL Football  259 New York Giants +205* vs Buffalo Bills 




    Win10/4/15 4:05pm  NFL Football  268 San Diego Chargers -275* vs Cleveland Browns 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  269 Green Bay Packers -330* vs San Francisco 49ers 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  271 Minnesota Vikings +7½ -130* vs Denver Broncos 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  273 St. Louis Rams +255* vs Arizona Cardinals 




    Pending10/5/15 8:30pm  NFL Football  277 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks Under 43 -110* 
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Should I hedge half and collect $800 or will the under hit??

    $10.00 to win $1,582.87












    Pending
    8 Team Parlay




    Win10/4/15 9:30am  NFL Football  251 New York Jets -135* vs Miami Dolphins 




    Win10/4/15 1:00pm  NFL Football  256 Atlanta Falcons -245* vs Houston Texans 




    Win10/4/15 1:00pm  NFL Football  259 New York Giants +205* vs Buffalo Bills 




    Win10/4/15 4:05pm  NFL Football  268 San Diego Chargers -275* vs Cleveland Browns 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  269 Green Bay Packers -330* vs San Francisco 49ers 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  271 Minnesota Vikings +7½ -130* vs Denver Broncos 




    Win10/4/15 4:25pm  NFL Football  273 St. Louis Rams +255* vs Arizona Cardinals 




    Pending10/5/15 8:30pm  NFL Football  277 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks Under 43 -110* 
     
    trainwreck66
    trainwreck66
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 8:03 AM ET #2

    for a $10 bet...I would be hedging to guarantee you some money...I would place 582.87 on the over imo....bol either way
    Reply
    for a $10 bet...I would be hedging to guarantee you some money...I would place 582.87 on the over imo....bol either way
     
    fadeORdie
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 8:13 AM ET #3

    The real question is: do you want to hedge, sit back, relax and enjoy the game OR let your ticket ride and have to deal with constant anal-clinching moments? You might actually end up in ER from anal hemorrhage.

    You be the judge 
    Reply
    The real question is: do you want to hedge, sit back, relax and enjoy the game OR let your ticket ride and have to deal with constant anal-clinching moments? You might actually end up in ER from anal hemorrhage.

    You be the judge 
     
    guyhopestowin
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 11:45 AM ET #4

    Hedge man you never know over under sundays game went under this week too many unders if it was say seattle mlbi would say let it ride but if it is spread or total definitely hedge and wait until game starts to hedge like over 42 or sth you may hit both
    Reply
    Hedge man you never know over under sundays game went under this week too many unders if it was say seattle mlbi would say let it ride but if it is spread or total definitely hedge and wait until game starts to hedge like over 42 or sth you may hit both
     
    TheAction
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 12:08 PM ET #5

    Hedge 1/3 of it, and keep the other 2/3 riding. Win-Win and you still have something to root for during the game.

    Honestly should have left today's match out of it if you were going to hedge :)
    Reply
    Hedge 1/3 of it, and keep the other 2/3 riding. Win-Win and you still have something to root for during the game.

    Honestly should have left today's match out of it if you were going to hedge :)
     
    CRS
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 12:11 PM ET #6

    If you have a chance to be on a positive money side....grab the money...don't be greedy. 
    Reply
    If you have a chance to be on a positive money side....grab the money...don't be greedy. 
     
    irage
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 12:13 PM ET #7

    Don't hedge, worst case your out 10.00. Like someone said already, sit back enjoy the game and you might be up 1100. That would be sweet!
    Reply
    Don't hedge, worst case your out 10.00. Like someone said already, sit back enjoy the game and you might be up 1100. That would be sweet!
     
    mograwadi
    mograwadi
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 12:16 PM ET #8

    Bet on Seattle ML. $500
    Reply
    Bet on Seattle ML. $500
     
    Unplug
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 12:53 PM ET #9

    Hedge, always.

    Why not guarantee your self money..
    Would you rather have a chance of winning 1100
    Or would you like to get $500
    Reply
    Hedge, always.

    Why not guarantee your self money..
    Would you rather have a chance of winning 1100
    Or would you like to get $500
     
    Rookieguru
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 1:33 PM ET #10

    Hedge the hell out of it....the fact you only bet 10 bucks, assuming your bank account us limited. Hedging half make an economic sense. Either way you win. If you want action, hedge 1/3. This bet is on your hand to lose. You got control, bet wisely.
    Reply
    Hedge the hell out of it....the fact you only bet 10 bucks, assuming your bank account us limited. Hedging half make an economic sense. Either way you win. If you want action, hedge 1/3. This bet is on your hand to lose. You got control, bet wisely.
     
    LICappers
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 1:38 PM ET #11

    Anyone who doesn't hedge is most likely a loser in gambling. When you can gamble and guarantee yourself profit, it's a no brainer. HEDGE.
    Reply
    Anyone who doesn't hedge is most likely a loser in gambling. When you can gamble and guarantee yourself profit, it's a no brainer. HEDGE.
     
    Illinoisboy2323
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 1:39 PM ET #12

    Are you up on the week?? If so, I would let it ride for the big payday!! If you're even or down.. I'd Hedge!! 

    Gl either way. Wish I was in this spot

    Reply

    Are you up on the week?? If so, I would let it ride for the big payday!! If you're even or down.. I'd Hedge!! 

    Gl either way. Wish I was in this spot

     
    irage
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2015 - 10:58 PM ET #13

    Did you hedge? The majority seem to feel it's better to hedge, I disagree. There are couple of factors that would cause me to pause.

    1. What is my risk vs reward?
    2. What is the strength of the pick (how confident am I)

    You're 7 of 8, that's amazing in it's self. I'd say you're hot and ride the wave, but I am gambler, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.

    You gotta be feeling pretty good right now, no matter what you chose.
    Reply
    Did you hedge? The majority seem to feel it's better to hedge, I disagree. There are couple of factors that would cause me to pause.

    1. What is my risk vs reward?
    2. What is the strength of the pick (how confident am I)

    You're 7 of 8, that's amazing in it's self. I'd say you're hot and ride the wave, but I am gambler, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.

    You gotta be feeling pretty good right now, no matter what you chose.
     
    guyhopestowin
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 1:54 AM ET #14

    very happy you won man, hedged or not

    please give your parlays from now on
    Reply
    very happy you won man, hedged or not

    please give your parlays from now on
     
    GoldMine9
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 2:07 AM ET #15

    Nice1
    Reply
    Nice1
     
    naesiy
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 2:17 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by irage:

    Did you hedge? The majority seem to feel it's better to hedge, I disagree. There are couple of factors that would cause me to pause.

    1. What is my risk vs reward?
    2. What is the strength of the pick (how confident am I)

    You're 7 of 8, that's amazing in it's self. I'd say you're hot and ride the wave, but I am gambler, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.

    You gotta be feeling pretty good right now, no matter what you chose.

    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by irage:

    Did you hedge? The majority seem to feel it's better to hedge, I disagree. There are couple of factors that would cause me to pause.

    1. What is my risk vs reward?
    2. What is the strength of the pick (how confident am I)

    You're 7 of 8, that's amazing in it's self. I'd say you're hot and ride the wave, but I am gambler, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.

    You gotta be feeling pretty good right now, no matter what you chose.

    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.
     
    MLStreaker
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 6:47 AM ET #17

    thanks for all the support fellas

    i ended up hedging $800 on the over and cashed $800.  knowing that i would win at least $800 each way made it zero stress

    i did however take seattle ML for -400 for $400 so that was pretty stressful until megatron cashed me in :)
    Reply
    thanks for all the support fellas

    i ended up hedging $800 on the over and cashed $800.  knowing that i would win at least $800 each way made it zero stress

    i did however take seattle ML for -400 for $400 so that was pretty stressful until megatron cashed me in :)
     
    irage
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 12:11 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.

    You are spot on. Everyone's betting style is different and it's hard to argue when you have an opportunity to hedge and win. Never the less I also believe to beat Vegas you have to be bold. Very few grind out a living betting on sports. For me it comes down to this.

    When you're hot, do you walk away or double down?

    I am always glad to hear that someone made money.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.

    You are spot on. Everyone's betting style is different and it's hard to argue when you have an opportunity to hedge and win. Never the less I also believe to beat Vegas you have to be bold. Very few grind out a living betting on sports. For me it comes down to this.

    When you're hot, do you walk away or double down?

    I am always glad to hear that someone made money.
     
    NinjaNight
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 3:29 PM ET #19

    Grats OP
    On a quest to be the very best
    Reply
    Grats OP
     
    Ed-Collins
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 5:56 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.


      The only person here who got it right.  Congrats.

    You NEVER hedge.  (Unless something in the game or the line has changed.)

    Hedging REDUCES your long-term profits.  Why is this simple concept so hard to understand?  You make LESS MONEY when you hedge.

    If you always hedge and I never hedge I will have MORE money than you do, after a very short period of time.

    If you are going to even CONSIDER hedging, then just leave that LAST LATE game OFF the card!  Don't even include it!

    Hedging comes at a price.  Guess who has to pay that price?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


    I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

    Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.


      The only person here who got it right.  Congrats.

    You NEVER hedge.  (Unless something in the game or the line has changed.)

    Hedging REDUCES your long-term profits.  Why is this simple concept so hard to understand?  You make LESS MONEY when you hedge.

    If you always hedge and I never hedge I will have MORE money than you do, after a very short period of time.

    If you are going to even CONSIDER hedging, then just leave that LAST LATE game OFF the card!  Don't even include it!

    Hedging comes at a price.  Guess who has to pay that price?
     
     
    porcelainfist
    porcelainfist
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2015
    Posts: 3012
    Posted: Oct. 6, 2015 - 6:16 PM ET #21

    Lol it sure is easy to tell other people to let their cash ride... dude f this sentiment of "giving back to the house" etc etc. These people are really missing the point. 

    you are betting TEN DOLLARs and you have already taken them to the cleaners on this ten dollar bet. You are now going to sit back and allow a 100% WIN become a 50/50? You just cashed HARD. Imagine this problem from the Book's perspective... do you want this guy to hedge? no, you definitely don't. You want him to keep his money riding because you have a CHANCE that he loses. If he hedges, you have just lost a bunch of money on a ten dollar bet. 

    If you win, get out with a profit. If you just multiplied your investment by 80 you have just won. People will talk about how it could have been 160 but those people didn't have to play your card. 

    I will, 100 percent of the time, if I am lucky enough to have a Monday night game on a so far perfect card, hedge the bet, and I strongly suggest you do the same. There is a strong chance that if you don't, Tuesday you will be kicking yourself directly in the nuts, which is a feat only possible if you leave $800 on a table for no good reason. This isn't doubling down, you have ALREADY WON. 
    Reply
    Lol it sure is easy to tell other people to let their cash ride... dude f this sentiment of "giving back to the house" etc etc. These people are really missing the point. 

    you are betting TEN DOLLARs and you have already taken them to the cleaners on this ten dollar bet. You are now going to sit back and allow a 100% WIN become a 50/50? You just cashed HARD. Imagine this problem from the Book's perspective... do you want this guy to hedge? no, you definitely don't. You want him to keep his money riding because you have a CHANCE that he loses. If he hedges, you have just lost a bunch of money on a ten dollar bet. 

    If you win, get out with a profit. If you just multiplied your investment by 80 you have just won. People will talk about how it could have been 160 but those people didn't have to play your card. 

    I will, 100 percent of the time, if I am lucky enough to have a Monday night game on a so far perfect card, hedge the bet, and I strongly suggest you do the same. There is a strong chance that if you don't, Tuesday you will be kicking yourself directly in the nuts, which is a feat only possible if you leave $800 on a table for no good reason. This isn't doubling down, you have ALREADY WON. 
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