"I have tracked how teams have responded after losing a close game ( specifically by <= 3 or in OT by 6 ) for the 2006-2007 & 2007-2008 seasons , and found some interesting trends , though I remarked that a bigger sample should be used.
The biggest surprise was in the record of Underdogs of more than 7 ( the game following their loss by <= 3 ) . These dogs went 1-11 ATS in 2007 , while going 4-11 ATS in 2006. This year , it has ocurred 3x and these underdogs failed to cover only the first game ( Oak vs SD ) . This ocurred when Oakland who lost by one point in week 3 , lost by 10 and failed to cover in week 4 vs San Diego ." But the next 2 Dogs of >= 7 have covered ...
In 2006 teams that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) went 24-33-2 ATS ( 42.1 % ) following game <= 3 ( or in OT )
In 2006 any Dogs went 15-20 ATS ( 42.8 % ) that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game
In 2006 Dogs of > 3 went 11-14 ATS ( 44 % ) after losing by <= 3
( or in OT ) prior game
in 2006 Dogs of >= 7 went 4-11 ATS ( 26.7 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game
In 2007 Teams that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) went 23-26 ATS ( 46.9 % ) following game
in 2007 any Dogs went 11-18 ATS ( 34.5 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game
in 2007 Dogs of > 3 went 6-15 ATS ( 28.6 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game .
In 2007 Dogs of >= 7 went 1-11 ATS ( 8.3 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game.
Underdogs of 7 or more have proven to be good teams to fade if they lost their prior game by 3 points or less or in OT
This year :
Week 2 :
SD lost 38-39 @ Denver ....Push
San Diego has lost 24-26 on week 1 to qualify
Week 3 :
Chicago L 24-27 vs TB ( Lost ATS ) chi -3
Minnesota won 20-10 vs Car ( Won ATS ) -3.5
Seattle won 37-13 vs St Louis ( Won ATS ) Sea - 9
San Diego won 48-29 vs NYJ ( Won ATS ) SD - 9
Week 4 :
NO - 4 vs SF won 31-17 ( Won ATS )
Cincinnati - 1 vs Cleveland won 20-12 ( Lost ATS )
Oakl + 9 vs SD lost 28-18 ( Lost ATS )
Week 5 :
Houston + 3 lost 27-31 vs Indi ( Lost ATS )
Indi -3 won 31-27 vs Hou ( won ATS )
Dallas -16 won 31-22 vs Cincy ( Lost ATS )
Baltimore + 1 lost 10-13 vs Tenn ( Lost ATS )
Week 6 :
Baltimore + 4 vs Indi LOST ATS
Green bay + 1 vs seattle Won ATS
Tampa Bay -1 vs Carolina Won ATS
New Orleans - 7.5 vs Oakland Won ATS
Week 7
Chicago -3 vs Minnesota Won ATS
Miami - 2.5 / 3 vs Baltimore Lost ATS
Washington - 7 vs Cleveland Lost ATS
Detroit + 11 @ Houston Won ATS
Dallas - 9 @ St Louis Lost ATS
Week 8
NY Jets - 14 vs KC Lost ATS
Cleveland + 7 @ Jac Won ATS
Week 9
N/ A
Week 10 ( teams that lost in week 9 by 3 pts or less or in OT )
Jacksonville - 6.5 @ Detroit
Kansas City + 16 @ San Diego
Green Bay + 1 @ Minnesota
New England - 3.5 vs Buffalo
YTD > All teams ... 11-11 ATS
Favorites only ... 8-7 ATS
Underdogs only ... 3-4 ATS
Underdogs of > 3 ... 2-2 ATS
Underdogs of >= 7 ...2-1 ATS
Trend is as follows :
Underdogs of >= 7 are 6-23 ATS ( 20.7 % ) since 2006
Kansas City is an underdog of >= 7 that lost by 3 or less ( or in OT )
prior game.
Play on : San Diego ( against KC )
Note : These underdogs are actually 2-1 ATS TY , so this will be a pivotal game to continue tracking this trend or bury it...
Let's see what happens this week !
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