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#1
Hey everyone ...
I thought I would get a jump on week 3
While week 2 won't officially end until the conclusion of tonight's game between Indianapolis@ miami some updates and observations can be made .
I will also update week 1& 2
Since it's Monday , let's start with MNF
One of the most remarkable trends throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season appeared on Monday night games ...
Overs began the year on an 8-0-1 tear and finished strong going
12-3-2 for the year on the high side .
In week 1 last year , Minnesota visited Green Bay while Denver visited Oakland .
With 20 points scored in the fourth quarter in the first game , and 28 points scored in the fourth quarter of the second game , the year began with overs going 2-0 .
Interestingly , both of these games began as low scoring affairs with Green bay and Denver combining for only 13 points in the first half and only 17 points were scored by halftime in the Denver-Oakland game .
Last Monday 22 points & 24 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone in the Buffalo-NE & SD-Oak games respectively .
A scoring frenzy took place during 4th quarters on MNF games last year driving the vast mayority of the games easily over the set total.
By the numbers : 312 points combined were scored in the fourth quarter of all MNF games last year .
This amounts to an average of 18.3 PPG ( During 4th Quarters on MNF )
Who cares about what happened last year , right ?
Except that we started the year right where we left off .
Overs are now on a 14-3-2 run on MNF since the start of the
2008-2009 NFL season .
That's a trend , insignificant as a capping tool as it may seem , it is there plain and simple.
In week 1 , I chose 3 trends representing the underdog ,favorite , and totals .
The Totals trend chosen was Buffalo-New England Under because of this :
In week 1 , with a total of 44 or higher the under was a solid
6-1 and 6-0 if over 44 .
On sunday 5 of the 6 totals ( 5-1 ) 44 or higher went under the number bringing this up to 11-2 and it was clearly validated .
Everyhting seemed in order as New England and Buffalo managed to score only 27 points through 3 quarters with the total set at 47.5
Needing 3 TD's it looked like a solid under , and with only 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter only 3 points had been added ...
bringing it up to 30 points total , and still needing 3 touchdowns to go over .
Then , It happened ...3 TD's in the last 5 Minutes of play !
So, having failed to account for the MNF Over trend doesn't seem like such a good idea now .
Here we are , MNF for week 2 is all set with the total set at around 41 , having dropped from the opening line of 42.5
Understandable , given that Miami and Atlanta combined for only 26 points going nearly 20 points bellow the total .
Furthermore , Indianapolis and Jacksonville accounted for only 26 points among them for another easy under with nearly 20 points to spare .
The way too early to look at rankings pits the # 1 defense of indianapolis vs the # 7 defense of Miami
Then we have the Under trends ...
Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games overall
Under is 10-2 in Dolphins last 12 games in week 2
Under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 sept games
And yes , there are a couple of over trends ,
but I am tring to make a point .
And the point is :
This game caps as an under and should be low scoring , but if the Buffalo-NE game last week is any indication , this inexplicable Over trend on MNF games does not want to go away quite yet .
So, don't count your money halfway through the fourth quarter .
The teams may just be warming up !
RF
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Colts!
roberto
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