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Trends & Things week 3 NFL + MNF week 2

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Posted: #26
Jacksonville @ Houston
 
Jacksonville is 2-15 ATS last 17 on grass !
Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS last 9 games overall
Houston is 7-2 ATS last 9 games overall
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS last 6 meetings
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS last 6 meetings in Houston
 
Recent meetings :
 
JAC 17 - HOU 30 on 12/1/08  Hou + 3 W
HOU 27 - JAC 30 on 9/28/08  Hou + 6.5 W
 
Early rankings :
 
Jacksonville 24th on offense & 24th on defense
( 17th in points allowed) 
Houston is ranked 23rd on offense ( 13th in points scored )
and 32nd on defense  
 
Statistically, the Jaguars score their highest marks in opponent yards per rush attempt (3.4, #5 rank), first downs per game (19.9, #9 rank), and opponent field goal conversion percentage (76.5%, #9 rank).
Statistically, the Texans score their highest marks in yards per pass attempt (7.8, #3 rank), yards per game (376.0, #4 rank), and average time of possession (net of ot) (31:14, #7 rank).
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
Houston :  18.32 + 3.18 = 21.50
Jacksonville : 17.34
spread would be >>> 4.16   Houston -4
Current spread Houston - 3.5/4
 
Covers concensus : Houston 72.28 % Jacksonville 27.72 %
sportsinsights :  Houston 80 % Jacksonville 20 %
 
Note : Trends favor Houston
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Posted: #27
Incedible amount of work you put into this. Thank you for sharing all of this with us.. 
 
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Posted: #28
Tennessee @ NY Jets
 
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in september
Tennessee is 17-5 ATS last 22 as underdog
Tennessee is 10-4 ATS following  a SU loss
Jets are 0-5 ATS last 5 as favorites
Jets are 5-1 ATS following an ATS win
 
Last 8 meetings Tennessee has been the favorite
This marks the first time the NY Jets are favored since '94
 
NY Jets have won 4 of the last 5 contests SU all as underdogs ,
 and NY Jets also covered the game in which they lost
 
So, the underdog has covered last 5 meetings in which the Titans went 0-5 ATS
 
After victories over New England and Houston , the NY Jets are highly rated >>
NY Jets is ranked 13th on offense and # 1 on defense
Tennessee is ranked 7th on offense ( 16th in points scored )
Meanwhile , Tennessee's defense is ranked 26th ( 20th in points allowed )
Do you think they miss Albert Haynesworth ?
 
That being said >>>
Statistically, the Titans score their highest marks in opponent yards per rush attempt (2.7, #1 rank), opponent red zone scoring percentage (26.7%, #1 rank), and opponent touchdowns per game (1.6, #2 rank).
Statistically, the Jets score their highest marks in field goal conversion percentage (100.0%, #1 rank), opponent yards per pass attempt (5.8, #4 rank), and opponent red zone scoring percentage (42.1%, #5 rank).
 
Rookie Mark Sanchez has a higher QB rating( 91.3 ) than Kerry Collins ( 85.4 % )
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
NY Jets : 24.66 + 3.18 = 27.84
Houston : 18.32
spread would be >>> 9.52  NY Jets - 9
current line : NY Jets - 1/-3
Difference : 6 +
 
The betting population is evenly divided as far as backing either team both in the covers consesus and sportsinsights percentages ....
 
The opening lines of 3 have received enough $ however to move it down  from that key number , and Pinnacle presently shows the NY Jets as 1 point favorite.
 
After the win over their arch-nemesis New England Patriots , The NY Jets are deserving of the 3 points awarded to home teams and since Tennessee failed to beat Houston , a 3.5 point spread or higher would better reflect the present status of these teams .
 
A possible emotional letdown by the NY Jets who are now being distracted with tampering chargers by the 49ers over Michael Crabtree as well as an expected all-out effort by a desperate 0-2 Titans team certainly is a factor .
 
Tennessee had a very tough close loss vs The SB champions , followed by another nailbiter vs Houston , where despite rushing for 240 yards against the Texans , Matt Schaub had a career day throwing for 357 yards with 4 Td's and no picks .
 
Tennessee has relished the role of underdog as well as bounced back strongly after a loss , while the NY Jets have nothing to show their backers in the last 5 intances they were made favorites .
 
Interesting matchup
I think the trends favor Tennessee
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Washington @ Detroit
 
Washington is 3-13-3 ATS vs a team with a losing record
Washington is 1-5-1 ATS as favorites
 
Detroit is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 home games
Detroit is 3-13 ATS in the last 16 games on fieldturf
Detroit is 0-7 ATS last 7 home games as dogs of 3.5 to 10
 
When I see a matchup like this with such negative trends pointing to both clubs < I like to focus on the favorable trends .
 
Detroit is 5-0 ATS after scoring less than 15 points
Detroit is 4-1 ATS following a DD home loss
Detroit is 5-2 ATS last 7 games following an ATS loss
 
It shows that for a team this bad , this may not be a bad spot for them!
 
Detroit did go 1-7 ATS @ home last year , while Washington won 4 games SU on the road last year by an average of 4.75 points , their last victory an 8 point victory @ Detroit
 
Interestingly , covers concensus has Detroit backers outnumbering the Redskins backers 59 to 41 %
While sportinsights bet tracker shows precisely the same percentages early in the week .
 
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If I may add to the Trends on this game
Not sure if you have decided on your pick so consider this

Washington vs Detroit.

Detroit has not won SU since 2000 
Detroit is 2-14 SU in the past 16 meetings
Detroit is 4-11 ATS with one tie

Washington has traditionally had this teams #
So the line falls in with the these Trends
everyone is making a big deal about last week vs St.Louis
Ignore last week, it has nothing to do with the next

Houston could not score, then the next week they explode 
Cinci did the same thing. so please ignore week 2

GL 
 
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Posted: #31
Roberto thanks for your GREAT info.. keep going.. btw what you think about Saints and Bills game.. i like Saint -6 and over..
 
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Posted: #32
Hard not to look New orleans right now , the way they are playing stussy.
New Orleans is not visiting Buffalo in december and the balmy weather seems well suited for the most potent offense thus far led by the very best quarterback ...Drew Brees
 
Let's see what we got ...
 
New Orleans @ buffalo
 
Saints are 7-0 ATS last 7 as favorites
Saints are 4-0 ATS last 4 in september
Saints are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 road games
Saints are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 games overall
Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as RF
 
Bills are 6-1 ATS in september
Bills are 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall
Bills are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as Home dogs
Bills are 2-8 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Bills are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 home games vs a team with a winning road record
 
New Orleans is ranked # 1 on offense ( 1st in points scored )
& 21st on defense
Buffalo is ranked 14th on offense ( 6th in points scored )
& 28th on defense ( 16th in points allowed )
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
New Orleans >>> 24.43 + 3.18= 27.61
Buffalo>>>19.49    Diff : 8.22
Spread would be: New Orleans - 8
Current line : New Orleans - 6     Diff of 2
 
Buffalo could and should be 2-0 after a devastating loss to the New England Patriots in week 1 giving up 2 TD's in the last 2 minutes of the fourth quarter .
That being said , it was the Patriots that dominated offensively , paticularly in first downs , passing yards , and time of possession .
The Bills did hold NE to only 73 yards rushing .
On offense Trent Edwards was effcient and did not turn the ball over .
Against Tampa Bay , the Bills outrushed the Bucs by over 150 yards and beat them soundly 33 to 20
 
However , with Tampa Bay having key injuries including in the all important center position and with a defense ranked nearly dead last in the league ...we may have to wait until this Sunday for a true measure of where they stand .
New Orleans offense is in mid-season form and the defense has proven opportunistic , though hardly intimidating .
 
Can the Buffalo defense stop the high powered offense of NO with a much improved run game and balance ?
 
With New Orleans averaging over 40 points a game , and the over/under @ 52 ( & NO a 4 point fav at open ) , oddsmakers are asking the Bill's defense to hold the Saints offense to no more than 28 points ( 28-24 )
 
While New orleans faced a terrible Detroit defense in week 1 , the littany of points Philadelphia's defense surrended to the Saints makes it reasonable to expect New Orleans to be capable of scoring more than 4 TD's on the Bills .
Regardless of the opposition , Bills passing defense ranks 31st in the league and come Sunday there is a dinstinct possibilty that they will be ranked dead last at the end of the game .
 
 As for the trends , I think it is pretty clear where the advantage lies :
on the New Orleans Saints
 
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Posted: #33
Thanks for the great info! Keep up the good work and BOL!


 
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Posted: #34
 
San Francisco @ Minnesota
 
Both teams are 2-0 ATS TY ( one will be 3-0 ATS )
 
After the Bye last year San Francisco  has been a solid team to back ATS .
the 49ers finished off the year in 2008-2009 by going 5-2-1 ATS and began this year going 2-0 ATS for a total of 7-2-1 ATS since that bye ...
Prior to that SF was 2-6 ATS in 2008-2009 & 5-11 ATS in 2007-2008 for a total of 7-17 ATS
 
Minnesota was a poor 6-10 ATS in 2008-2009 , the year before that Minnesota was 7-7-2 ATS
 
SF is 4-0-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record
SF is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as underdogs
SF is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games overall
SF is 4-1 ATS last 5 games in sept
SF is 7-2 ATS last 9 games on turf
 
Minn is 2-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Minn is 3-10 ATS last 13 games following a SU win
Minn is 4-11 ATS @ home after an away game
Minn is 3-8 ATS last 11 vs the NFC
Minn is 1-4 ATS last 5 home games
 
San Francisco ranks 26th on offense per yards ( 12th in points scored ) & defensively SF ranks 7th on offense per yards ( 4th per points )
Minnesota ranks 27th on offense per yards ( 4th per points scored )
& defensively Minn ranks 4th on offense per yards ( 8th per points allowed )
 
" The San Francisco 49ers (2-0, #4 Overall power ranking) hit the road in Week 3, going 1,581 miles to battle #11 ranked Minnesota (2-0).
In their last game, closing point spreads saw the 49ers as a 1 point home favorite against #22 ranked Seattle.
San Francisco outperformed that expectation, winning by 13, 23-10, after being up by 3 at the half. The 49ers are now 2-0-0 ATS.

Recently, San Francisco has gone 2-0 and now ranks #3 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The 49ers went 2-0-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the 49ers score their highest marks in opponent points per game (13.9, #1 rank), opponent yards per pass attempt (5.4, #1 rank), and opponent third down conversion percentage (30.8%, #1 rank).

The Minnesota Vikings return home after a 27-13 away win against the Detroit Lions. In their last game, the Vikings were a 10 point away favorite vs. #32 ranked Detroit.
Minnesota slightly outperformed that expectation, winning by 14 after being down by 3 at the half. The Vikings are now 2-0-0 ATS.

In recent games, Minnesota has gone 2-0 and now ranks #11 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The Vikings went 2-0-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the Vikings score their highest marks in opponent red zone scoring percentage (31.2%, #2 rank), penalty yards per game (30.0, #3 rank), and third down conversion percentage (48.4%, #3 rank) "
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
Minnesota : 23.99+ 3.18 = 27.17
San Francisco : 23.32
Spread would be : 3.85    Minnesota - 4
Current line : Minneosta - 6.5
Diff : SF + 2.5
 
Covers consensus :
San Francisco 53.2 % Minneosta 46.8 %
 
sportsinsights bet tracker :  
San Francisco 61 % Minnesota 39 %
 
Not since the the the Bill Wash era has there been a coach who has been able to turn around a 49ers team from a perennial loser to one that walks on the field with the confidence of a winner.
The winning stats thus far prove that and the trends back them up .
 
Whether this team , under his leadership turns out to be a playoff caliber team ( now or in the next couple of years ) ,                   and a threat to go to the Super Bowl just as the great Walsh  did in 1981 remains to be seen .
 
For the time being , San Francisco might do just enough to be competitive in games it loses , and win some within its grasp .
 
 This game on the road against a tough Vikings defense and a superstar running back will be perhaps the biggest hurdle yet under  Mike Singletary's watch .
 There will be many more ahead , but first and foremost will be the men on purple and gold .
 
Between them , in this matchup the trends do favor the
San Francisco 49ers
 
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Posted: #35
THANKS BETO WHAT ABOUT BENGALS - STEELERS? I LIKE THE BENGALS + 4.5
 
GL
 
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Posted: #36
Roberto, good work as always, I love reading your write ups.  Keep up the good work.  My best bet is BAL -13, after that I like MIA + 6.  GL to all.
 
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Posted: #37
roberto can you confirm this trend that who defeats  the superbowl champs that team will lose ats on the road next game
                                                   thanks carnzey
 
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Posted: #38
 
We all know that teams get particularly pumped up when playing against the Super bowl champions , so beating them ...particularly if unexpected could carry over an emotional letdown factor along with line value the following week of play .
But, if 1 or even 2 games have taken place after this defeat ( before they play on the road ) , it takes this emotional letdown factor out of the equation already .
 So , a better barometer would be the game inmediately following the win against the reigning SB winners.
I also think when the victory takes place is a factor .
Does this take place early in the season or late when more or possibly less is at stake ...
Does it take place against a divisional opponent ?
Is it represent the first loss for the reigning SB champion ?
It would be interesting to see how SB winners respond following their first loss of the season ...
 
But , to answer your question strictly from a trends point of view :
 
Chicago after losing to div rival Green Bay is coming off a hard fought and emotional win vs the SB champions Pittsburgh Steelers .
 
That being said , Chicago was only a 3 point dog @ home vs the Champs .
Now, Chicago travels on the road to visit Seattle and the oddsmakers made them favorites by one point . ( Seattle's loss to the 49ers coupled with chicago's ensured this  ) 
 
Last year , the first team to beat the SB champs ( NYG ) was Cleveland who did this as a 9 point dog on Monday night football and beat them soundly 35-14 ( This was a resounding upset  )
 
Oddsmakers weren't too impressed with this feat however , as Cleveland traveled on the road to Washington and were made 7 point dogs vs the Redskins .
 Washington (4-2 at the time ) playing @ home  was off a loss to St Louis by the score of 17-19 .
The Rams lost all but 2 games the entire year !
Next game , Cleveland fresh off the upset of the NYG did lose to Washington 11-14 , but pretty easily covered the hefty 7 point spread thus winning ATS
 
The next team to beat the SB champs NYG was Philadelphia 20-14 .
Philadelphia then went on to beat Cleveland 30-10 @ home and going on the road next did drop a game against div rivals Wash 3-10 .
Given that Phil had beaten the NYG and followed that with a sound victory over Clev , the Eagles were made favorites by 4.5 in the game So, the Eagles lost ATS vs Wash
 
Dallas , who also beat the NYG 20-8 , played on the road against Baltimore as 5 point favorites and lost to the Ravens 24-33
Dallas lost ATS
I won't count week 17 losses by SB champs
 
In 2007-2008
 
Indianapolis SB winners the prior year were home entertaining the NE Patriots and went on to have their first loss against New England by the score 20-24  .
The cicumstances in that game were that New England was coming undefeated just as Indi , but was absolutely crushing the opposition earning their Road favorite status .
The line would end up with New England the favorite by 5 points , a spread that Indi covered in their loss .
Now, New England gets a bye , and goes on the road  to play the Buffalo Bills as 16 point favorites !
Final score : New England 56-10 ( 35-7 at halftime )
New England won ATS
 
I think that's when you stop looking ...
I hope that helped ....
 
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Posted: #39
Games Covered :
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Washington @ Detroit
Jacksonville @ Houston
Tennessee @ NY Jets
New Orleans @ Buffalo
San Francisco @ Minnesota
 
other games :
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay @ St Louis
Kansas City @ Philadelphia
Atlanta @ New England
Chicago @ Seattle
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Denver @ Oakland
Miami @ San Diego
Indianapolis @ Arizona
Carolina @ Dallas
 
Here are 2 pre bye-week trends for week 3 :
 
Underdogs are 12-2-1 ATS in Philadelphia's l15 pre-bye week games
Play on : Kansas City
 
Underdogs have covered 12 straight ( 12-0 ATS ) in Carolina pre-bye week games .
Play on : Carolina
 
 
 
Game : Kansas City @ Philadelphia
 
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS off a division loss
Philadelphia is 8-0 ATS off home loss + 21 points
 
This is a showcase between an NFC team vs an AFC team with the current line around 7.5 to 9 points  in favor of the home team Philadelphia
 
Kansas City was unable to win either of the first 2 games to start the season , and in fact could not even win any of the 4 preseason games and lost the last 4 reg season games last year , and had lost 7of 8 before that , and 3 of 4 to start last season . Ouch .
That's 10 losses in a row including preseason . Overall , since the start of last regualr season , and inclusing this year's preseason . The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 20 of their last 22 games !
Move over Detroit ...you got company !
 
Despite all this ....
Kansas City is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 reg season road games .
 
Kansas City covered half of is games on the road last year , and though they lost ATS to start this year . KC has proven to be a competitive team and an attractive choice when given more than a touchdown .
No trend advantage
 
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Posted: #40
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
 
NY Giants are a stunning 16-3 ATS in road games
NY Giants are 14-5 ATS overall
NY Giants are 12-3 ATS against conference opponents
NY Giants are 43-26 ATS off a win against a div rival since 1992
NY Giants are 6-1 ATS as road favorites
 
Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last  5 games on grass
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
NY Giants 25.22
Tampa Bay 16.12 + 3.18 = 19.30
diif is 5.92
spread would be : NY Giants - 6
actual spread : NY Giants - 6.5 / -7
 
The early rankings give a high grade to Tampa Bay's offense despite losing Jeff Faine to an injury . Tampa Bay ranks ahead of the NY Giants based on rushing and about equal based on passing .
But , its is in points scored where this ranking tails off behind NY ( 28 points av) against TB's 20.5 av .
 
Again , far to early to weight these , but Tampa did play decent teams in Dallas and Buffalo . Meanwhile , NYG played Dallas and Washington in their first two games .
 
Where the biggest difference ocurrs is on the defensive side of the equation with the NY Giants find themselves in the top 3 in yards allowed ( a big drop off at the 21st placing  in points allowed )
 
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has started the year nearly dead last ( 31st ) in both yards allowed and points allowed .
 
Trend advantage : NY Giants
 
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Posted: #41
roberto r there any trends for ats winners for prime time games?
namely sunday nyt football and monday nyt football games.
 
im only asking since for this season
week 1 sunday nyt winner (ATS) losses next game (ATS)
greenbay won (ATS), lost to cini next game (ATS)
week 1 sunday nyt loser (ATS) wins next game (ATS)
chicago lost (ATS), won vs pits next game (ATS)
 
for week 1 mnf
ats winners (ATS) wins next games as well (ATS)
buffalo and oak wins against tb and kc (ATS)
ats losers (ATS) loses next game as well (ATS)
ne and in loses against nyj and bal (ATS)
 
if that is the case
dal and ind should be the play (ATS)
tb and sd as well since nyg and mia  (should lose (ATS)
 
any trend to support this primetime game winning and losing trend?
 
many thanks for all the time and effort that you put in making this threads
 
bol bro
 
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Posted: #42
 
The best you got >>>
The longest standing of your Sunday& Monday winners/ losers ATS trends is the one for the Sunday night winners .
The streak is at 5
So,
Sunday night winners ( ATS ) are 0-5 ATS following week of play
 
week 2 :   NYG won ATS then ???? ATS ( week 3 )
NYG - 6.5 vs TB
 
week 1 :   GB won ATS then Lost ATS ( week 2 ) 
 
week 16 :  NYG won ATS then Lost ATS ( week 17 )
week 15 :  Dallas won ATS then Lost ATS ( week 16 )
week 14 :  Bal won ATS then Lost ATS ( week 15 )
week 13 :  Minn won ATS then Lost ATS ( week 14 )
week 12 : Indi won ATS then pushed ATS ( week 13)
week 11: Dallas won ATS then won ATS  ( week 12 )
week 10 : NYG won ATS then won ATS ( week 11 )
 
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Posted: #43
Game : Green Bay @ St Louis
 
St Louis is 6-15 ATS last 21 home games
St Louis is 6-20-1 ATS last 27 games in Sep
(1-9 ATS ) last 10
 
GB is 14-5-1 ATS last 20 road games
GB is 0-4 ATS vs a team with a losing record
GB is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Fav is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings
 
Jeff Sagarin rating :
 
Green Bay : 18.98
St Louis 13.21+ 3.18= 16.39
Diff is 2.59  spread would be >> Green Bay - 2.5
Current line is Green bay - 6.5/7
Diff : St Louis + 4.5/5
 
There is a sense here that Green Bay will bounce back from their loss against Cincinnati last week.
These two teams played Jekyl & Hyde through the first 2 weeks .
 
As helpless as St Louis seemed against Seattle in week 1 getting shut out completely , they nearly won the game against Washington the following week .
As much as Washington was to blame for their red-zone inefficiency , it was the St Louis Rams that were protecting their endzone .
On the other side , we have a Green Bay Packers team that played a good game against Chicago , who just beat the SB champs , only to stink it up against Cincinnati the following  week .
 
Truth is neither team is as bad as their worst perfomance or as good as their best performance .
Green Bay has trouble protecting their quarterback as they are leading the league in sacks allowed already in DD
Washington should have beaten the Rams by DD and the Rams have only scored 7 points total in 2 games .
A wait and see what emerges out of this game seems the right approach , but having said that a 7 home dog going against a team that just got beaten SU as a 9 point favoite the week prior seems only logical to take .
 
Trends say that St Louis is particularly bad covering the spread at home , while Green Bay has been particularly good on the road .
 
St Louis has also been particularly bad in the first month of the season , and Green Bay has struggled to cover the spreads lately , and are on bad pattern of not covering against lesser opponents .
 
Trends : No advantage
 
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Posted: #44
Game : Atlanta @ New England
 
Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in pre-bye weeek games since '01
Atlanta is 0-6 ATS off bb wins
Atlanta is 11-4 ATS as a RF of 3.5 to 10
New England is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at home
Bill Bellichick is 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS last 14 after a loss
New England is 19-7 ATS as a fav of 3.5 to 10
Atlanta coming coming off bb SU & ATS wins are 0-10 ATS
Mike Smith is 0-5 ATS off 2 straight wins
NE is 0-5 ATS last 5 home games against a winning road team
wow..we got some trends all over the place here ...
 
Clearly New England has been $ coming off a loss and rebounded very well .
 On the other hand , they have been a really poor play @ home for the past 14 home games .
Atlanta has not put long streaks of winning and the moment you jump on their wagon , they seem to disappoint .
Theres is a sense here that New England rebounds strongly as they have so many times in the past , but this team is coming off 2 ATS losses , and is lucky they are not coming off 2 SU losses as well .
 
Let's see what Jeff Sagarin ratings indicate :
Atlanta : 19.22
New England 24.43 + 3.18 = 27.61
diff is : 8.39  spread would be >> New England - 8.5
current line : New England - 4.5
Diff : New England + 4
According to this , you have line value if you take  England
 
Trends advantage : None
 
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Posted: #45
Game : Chigago @ Seattle
 
Chicago is 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games as RF of  .5 to 3
Chicago is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games overall
Chicago is 7-19-2 ATS last 28 following a SU win
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS last 6 following an ATS win
Chicago is 3-11 ATS off SU win
 
Seattle is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 games following an ATS loss
Seattle is 10-4-1 ATS last 15 home games 
Seattle is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 games as Home dog of .5 to 3
 
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
Seattle : 21.05+3.18 = 24.23
Chicago : 19.16
Diff: 5.07   spread would be : Seattle - 5.07
current line : Seattle + 1/2.5
Diff : Seattle + 6 / 8.5
Note : Injury to Matt Hasselbeck , with Seneca Wallace at QB
 
 Despite Seattle having a negative trend as Home dogs...
 trends favor : Seattle
 
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Posted: #46
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
 
Road team ( Pitt ) is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings
Pitt is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati
Pitt is 9-4 ATS last 13 meetings following a SU loss
Pitt is 0-5 ATS last 5 games in Sep
Pitt is 1-5 ATS last 6 games as RF
 
Cincinnati is 8-21 ATS @ home in sep
Cin is 4-1 ATS last 5 games overall
Cin is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as dogs of 3.5 to 10
 
Hard not to say that Pittsburgh has an edge in the trends here .
Head to head , there is no question...though recent success by Cincinnati overall and in the role of underdog mirrors a moderate lack of success by Pittsburgh in the RF role . But Pittsburgh has come back strong from defeats , so with the past success that the Steelers own over the Bengals ,
Trends favor Pittsburgh
 
Jeff Sagarin ratings :
 
Cincinnati : 20.42+3.18= 23.60
Pittsburgh : 20.33
Diff: 3.27  spread would be : Cincinnati - 3
current line : Cincinnati + 3.5/4
Diff: Cin + 6.5 /7
 
A sizeable difference is noted in favor of Cincinnati
 ...not affected by recent injuries
 
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Posted: #47
Denver @ Oakland
 
Denver is 0-8 ATS off a home win
Denver is 3-14-1 ATS last 18 vs AFC West
Denver is 1-5 ATS last 6 meetings ( validates above trend )
Denver is 8-20-1 ATS last 29 following a SU win
Denver is 6-21-1 ATS as a favorite
 
Oakland is 2-11 ATS last 13 games as Home dogs of .5 to 3
Oakland is 8-21 ATS last 29 home games
Oakland is 4-0 ATS last 4 overall
Oakland is 4-0 ATS as an underdog
 
Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings
Road team ( Denver ) is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings
underdog ( Oakland ) is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings
 
These 2 squads have been money burning machines for quite sometime now .
And one of them will continue to take your money after sunday.
 
Recently Oakland has had the upperhand in their meetings .
Denver has been also been bad coming off home wins .
Also, overall recent play is on the side of Oakland .
 
That being said , with Oakland having a 2-11 ATS as home dogs in this spot ...this calls for a Pass
 
Trend advantage : NONE
 
 
Jeff Sagarin Rating :
Denver 24.37
Oakland 15.92=3.18= 19.10
Diff : 5.27 spread would be : Denver - 5.5
current line is Denver - 1/2.5
Diff : Denver + 3/4.5
 
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Captain
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Posts: 5456
Posted: #48
Miami @ San Diego
 
Miami is 6-0 ATS away vs conference
Miami is 5-1 ATS last 6 as road dogs
Miami is 5-1 SU last 6 games on the road
Miami is 3-8 ATS last 11 games overall
Miami is 1-9-2 ATS last 12 gmes in sept games
 
San Diego is 20-6 ATS last 26 as home fav of 3.5 to 10
San Diego is 19-9-1 ATS last 29 games vs AFC
San Diego is 2-6-1 ATS last 9 games in sept games 
San Diego is 2-7 ATS last 9 as a favorite
SD is 1-4 ATS vs a team with a losing record
SD is 1-4 ATS follwoing up a SU loss
 
Two recent matchups were won by Miami , both as underdog
Though San Diego has traditionally been quite good covering the spreads at home , their slow starts ( sept games )  and  more recent
2-7 ATS record simply as favorites doesn't inspire much confidence
. 
Miami's overall 3-8 ATS does not either and neither does the Dolphins record during the warmest month ( 1-9-2 ATS )
 
There is cross country travel as Miami travels to the West coast  
 
Jeff Sagarin rating :
 
San Diego 22.40+3.18= 25.58  
Miami 15.34
Diff : 10.24 spread would be : San Diego - 10
current line : San Diego - 5.5/6
Diff: San Diego + 4/4.5
 
 
Trend advantage : None
 
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Captain
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Posts: 5456
Posted: #49
Indianapolis @ Arizona
 
Colts are 12-2-1 ATS last 15 games as underdogs of .5 to 3
Colts are 15-7-1 ATS last 23 games in Sep games
Colts are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 road games
Colts are 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games following an ATS win
 
Arizona is 8-0 ATS last 8 games as a favorite
Arizona is 4-0 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Arizona is 6-1 ATS last 7 games overall
Arizona is 4-1 ATS last 5 home games
 
Good looking trends favoring both squads here
 
This matchup features one of the top AFC teams vs the reigning NFC champion
NFC teams finished 35-29 ATS ( 36-29 ATS counting SB )
NFC teams lead 4-2 ATS over AFC thus far this year
 
Colts have been very impressive underdogs , not to be taken lighlty, however , where Indi has failed is in putting consecutive ATS wins , negating their exceelent road dog status .
Arizona has been excellent in the favored role and represent the leading NFC conference in these inter-conference matchups .
While Arizona has an edge here , That 12-2-1 ATS trend the Colts own can't be denied .
Pass
Trend advantage : None
 
Jeff Sagarin rating:
Arizona 21.36 + 3.18 = 24.54
Indianapolis : 22.72
diff : 1.82   spread would be   Ariz - 2
current line Ariz  -1.5/-3
Diff : None
 
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Veteran
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Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 2671
Posted: #50
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