Trends & Things week 6 NFL 2009

 

 

 

Drawn from this list >>>

 

MIN is 4-12 ATS at home after an away game; 0-1 TY
NYG is 22-4 ATS in their L26 road games; 3-0 TY
NO is 14-5-1 ATS in their L20 games; 4-0 TY
DEN is 4-14-1 ATS in their L18 Div encounters; 1-0 TY
DET has produced 22 OVERs and 5 UNDERs in their L27 road games; 2/0 TY
CLE is 24-3 ATS when they score 24+ points; none TY

Washington is 1-8 ATS when hosting AFC opponents.

The Redskins have produced 1 over and 10 unders in their last 11 home games.

The Bengals are 1-12 ATS following a divisional encounter in October vs. a less than .500 opponent.
The Vikings are 4-12-1 ATS following a SU win of 14+ points.
Jacksonville is 14-2 ATS before a matchup with Tennessee but they have a bye next week.
The Jaguars are 1-11 ATS as favorites following a non-divisional encounter in October vs. a less than .500 opponent.
The Giants are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. .666 or better opponents.
New York is 10-1 ATS on the road in October following back-to-back SU/ATS wins.
The Saints have produced 11 overs, 2 unders and 2 pushes in their last 15 home games.

New Orleans is 9-1 ATS when hosting .666 or better non-divisional NFC opponents.
Green Bay is 0-12 ATS as favorites of more than 11 points.
The Eagles are 10-0 ATS in October vs. less than .500 opponents coming off a road game.

Oakland is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog.
New York has produced 10 overs and 2 unders in their last 12 games following a SU divisional loss.
The Jets are 11-2-1 ATS after an appearance on Monday night.

The Patriots are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a 9+ point favorite.
Denver is 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 divisional encounters.
San Diego is 22-9-4 ATS in their last 35 divisional matchups.
The Seahawks are 0-8 ATS following a double-digit SU win in October vs. an opponent coming off a SU win.

 

Picks by Lukester from where I gathered these trends :

Winner's Edge Picks for Wk 6:

AZ @ SEA: Take SEATTLE
BAL @ MIN: Take the UNDER
HOU @ CIN: Take HOUSTON

Winner's Edge Record (so far): 6-2

Wk 1: 0-1
Wk 2: 2-0
Wk 3: 2-1
Wk 4: 2-0
Wk 5: ???

 

Last week was the first time in a while that we saw a glut of favorites in the NFL of nine-points or higher…five of them, to be exact. The lines were put out that high because there is a more noticeable talent gap this season.

What’s even more surprising than the heavy “chalk” was the fact that they went 4-1 straight up and against the spread. The only loser was Baltimore, who was listed as a 9 ½-point home favorite against the Bengals.

There isn’t any signs of these big numbers going away at the moment as there are six tilts this Sunday that have favorites of at least nine points.

Of course, those lines could be easily attributed to the quality of talent on the teams and gives you a greater chance of cashing in at the betting shops. Chip Chirimbes explains, “Nine points in the NFL is a 'monster' to beat and I have always looked to take that many points. The problem with this years NFL teams is that there are that many bad teams. St. Louis (0-5) can't score, Oakland (1-4) has a win but are one of the worst teams in years. Tampa Bay (0-5) has a new coach and rookie quarterback and has NO defense to stop anybody. Kansas City (0-5) has been terrible for a number of seasons now and the Cleveland Browns (1-4) have no offense scoring only 11 points per game. Now those are teams that we should probably 'play against' and that brings up to Tennessee (0-5) a team that won their first 10 games last year and now after five games they are winless. “

“Throw into the mix the Giants (5-0), Vikings (5-0), Colts (5-0) and Saints (4-0) and the upstart Broncos at 5-0 means that there will be plenty of 'high' priced games.

More random trends :

 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NY GIANTS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
( conflicting )

CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons

NY JETS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY: 8-0 ATS after allowing 25+ pts BB games
WASHINGTON: 9-0 Under as a favorite
ST LOUIS: 0-7 ATS after allowing 35+ points
JACKSONVILLE: 9-0 ATS after scoring 6 pts or less
DETROIT: 6-0 ATS Away after 1st month of season

Detroit is 4-12-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
GREEN BAY: 5-17 ATS as DD favorite
PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play
OAKLAND: 1-8 ATS in non-conference games
ARIZONA: 12-1 Over off an Under
SEATTLE: 1-14 ATS off home win by 21+ points
CHICAGO: 9-0 Over after a game with a TO margin of +2 or better
ATLANTA: 8-20 ATS at home off DD win

 

 

 

 

 

 

A reminder of why the trend against New England mentioned earlier will be tough to back :

 

" New England has been excellent coming off a straight-up loss, putting up a 17-3 ATS mark in this spot since 2003. Also, Bill Belichick is nearly automatic in his career as a favorite against an opponent off a SU division loss, going 14-1 ATS. "

You guys are welcome to come up with trend pick suggestions based on information available here :

Or add information if you want ...

 

I'll make some on saturday

this is awesome stuff

 

i like it will follow some of your picks for sure

TREND PICKS week 6 :

 

New Orleans

San Diego

Green Bay

 

These would all make it on the favorites after bye-week trend ...

hitting over 70 % past 4 seasons

 

 

This team would make it because of

The Eagles are 10-0 ATS in October vs. less than .500 opponents coming off a road game. they are also a strong NFC team playing a bad AFC team .

Green Bay would be in  there because it is favored coming off a bye However  Gb has a strong trend against it : Green Bay is 0-12 ATS as favorites of more than 11 points.( not confirmed )

Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater ( from covers )

Packers are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.( from covers )
Regardless , the inabity by one team to cover big spreads , and the recent  history of the other covering large spreads makes this would be pick dicey.

Also New Orleans has been money @ home , but the NYG have been outrageously good on the road .

 

It is probably best if you play the after bye-week trend to take them all and not break them apart .

San Diego seems the best  of the 3 when considering other trends .

 

Personally , I am considering  Detroit , New orleans , San Diego , Kansas City , Houston , Philadelphia ( not trend picks ! )

 

nice shit

Roberto,

Good stuff as always some additional trends:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keep up the great work Roberto

 

I am leaning to that direction myself too. Keep up good work Roberto!

Thanks for your work

holy shit how long did that take to write? it took me almost 20 minutes to read  WOW what a write up but now what i have no clue now so confused  what would the good plays be??

 

  great tread dude

Always look forward to your posts Roberto, Thank You!

Dustman1

POST YOUR BEST PICKS ROBERTOFIORY. THANKYOU.