Just gonna try to pick an underdog every week that not only has a good chance to cover, but also to win outright.
Week 1: PHI @ WAS
Line: PHI +3.5
PHI +160 ML
I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that
teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous
season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite
vulnerable. I think that accurately describes the Redskins.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.
PS: Posted this earlier but was moved to promotions forum. Whatever. If you happen to be interested in finding my blog you can find it in my covers space.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Just gonna try to pick an underdog every week that not only has a good chance to cover, but also to win outright.
Week 1: PHI @ WAS
Line: PHI +3.5
PHI +160 ML
I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that
teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous
season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite
vulnerable. I think that accurately describes the Redskins.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.
PS: Posted this earlier but was moved to promotions forum. Whatever. If you happen to be interested in finding my blog you can find it in my covers space.
Last week's win was a good start, but it's a long season.
Week 2: NO @ TB Line: TB +3.5 TB +145 ML
Looking back, I found that home dogs tended to perform pretty well in week 2. This makes sense because some teams look so good in week 1 at home (or bad on the road) that bettors misjudge the team as well as forget about the home-away disparity that occurs in the NFL.
The Bucs lost to the Jets on a stupid penalty on the penultimate play of the game, but otherwise pretty much had that game won. Winning a road game is always difficult in the NFL, even if it was against the lowly Jets. The Saints, on the other hand, won at home (where Brees has been significantly better during his Saints tenure), but needed a final goal line stand against a Falcons team that's also been much better at home historically.
I'm trying my best to get my pick out before Thursday's game every week, but tonight's Patriots-Jets game might reveal more about the Bucs. Furthermore, with the Saints being a team that the public loves to bet on, the line could easily get better by kickoff on Sunday. Speaking of public teams, Covers.com Consensus picks has New Orleans at 78%, which is a very high number.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, at least two home underdogs have won outright in week 2 each year.
PS: I actually like all four home dogs to some degree. I wrote about each one on my blog which you can find on my covers space.
0
Record: ATS 1-0 ML +160
Last week's win was a good start, but it's a long season.
Week 2: NO @ TB Line: TB +3.5 TB +145 ML
Looking back, I found that home dogs tended to perform pretty well in week 2. This makes sense because some teams look so good in week 1 at home (or bad on the road) that bettors misjudge the team as well as forget about the home-away disparity that occurs in the NFL.
The Bucs lost to the Jets on a stupid penalty on the penultimate play of the game, but otherwise pretty much had that game won. Winning a road game is always difficult in the NFL, even if it was against the lowly Jets. The Saints, on the other hand, won at home (where Brees has been significantly better during his Saints tenure), but needed a final goal line stand against a Falcons team that's also been much better at home historically.
I'm trying my best to get my pick out before Thursday's game every week, but tonight's Patriots-Jets game might reveal more about the Bucs. Furthermore, with the Saints being a team that the public loves to bet on, the line could easily get better by kickoff on Sunday. Speaking of public teams, Covers.com Consensus picks has New Orleans at 78%, which is a very high number.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, at least two home underdogs have won outright in week 2 each year.
PS: I actually like all four home dogs to some degree. I wrote about each one on my blog which you can find on my covers space.
Almost managed to start the season 2-0 in my outright underdog picks,
but Tampa Bay managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the
final minute for the second week in a row.
Week 3: KC @ PHI
Line: KC +3 KC +150 ML
Even though the NFL season only consists of 16 regular season games, it
is a long grind. So it's not that surprising to me to sometimes see
unlikely teams string together wins to start the season. Examples
include last year's 4-0 Cardinals, the 3-0 Bills from the year before,
and the 3-0 Chiefs three seasons ago. Looking at some of the teams that are 2-0 so far this season, only the
Chiefs are currently an underdog this week, while both HOU and MIA are
only 1 point favorites.
I think this is a very good situation for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles' running and Alex Smith in a West Coast offense could
slow the game down, while on the defensive side Kansas City boasts 4 pro
bowlers from last year and held MJD to 15 rushes for 45 yards in their
week 1 game.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least one 2-0 underdog has won outright in week 3 each year.
0
Record:
ATS 2-0
ML 1-1 +60
Almost managed to start the season 2-0 in my outright underdog picks,
but Tampa Bay managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the
final minute for the second week in a row.
Week 3: KC @ PHI
Line: KC +3 KC +150 ML
Even though the NFL season only consists of 16 regular season games, it
is a long grind. So it's not that surprising to me to sometimes see
unlikely teams string together wins to start the season. Examples
include last year's 4-0 Cardinals, the 3-0 Bills from the year before,
and the 3-0 Chiefs three seasons ago. Looking at some of the teams that are 2-0 so far this season, only the
Chiefs are currently an underdog this week, while both HOU and MIA are
only 1 point favorites.
I think this is a very good situation for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles' running and Alex Smith in a West Coast offense could
slow the game down, while on the defensive side Kansas City boasts 4 pro
bowlers from last year and held MJD to 15 rushes for 45 yards in their
week 1 game.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least one 2-0 underdog has won outright in week 3 each year.
Week 4:
PIT @ MIN (in UK)
Line:
MIN +2.5
MIN +120 ML
In general I've found that people love fading streaks. They like to
think that a team on a long losing streak is "due" for a win or vice
versa. That is usually a quick way to go broke. Over the past 5 seasons, 5 winless teams have been favored with an
overall record of 1-4. This week features two such teams in the Steelers
and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a mess and have just benched
Freeman, so I'm going to stay away.
I like this matchup for the Vikings as they have been able to put up
points and have playmakers such as Peterson and Jennings. Their main
problem has been on defense, and I don't think Pittsburgh, which has had
problems scoring so far this season, will be able to take advantage of
that. The Vikings have a clear advantage in the running game, and that
might come into play if the weather in London is poor. The line has been
in flux as Vikings QB Ponder is listed as questionable, but I don't
think that Matt Cassel is too big of a downgrade if Ponder can't go.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 years, the Dallas Cowboys have been 1-4 as a favorite in week 4.
0
Record:
ATS 3-0
ML 2-1 +210
Week 4:
PIT @ MIN (in UK)
Line:
MIN +2.5
MIN +120 ML
In general I've found that people love fading streaks. They like to
think that a team on a long losing streak is "due" for a win or vice
versa. That is usually a quick way to go broke. Over the past 5 seasons, 5 winless teams have been favored with an
overall record of 1-4. This week features two such teams in the Steelers
and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a mess and have just benched
Freeman, so I'm going to stay away.
I like this matchup for the Vikings as they have been able to put up
points and have playmakers such as Peterson and Jennings. Their main
problem has been on defense, and I don't think Pittsburgh, which has had
problems scoring so far this season, will be able to take advantage of
that. The Vikings have a clear advantage in the running game, and that
might come into play if the weather in London is poor. The line has been
in flux as Vikings QB Ponder is listed as questionable, but I don't
think that Matt Cassel is too big of a downgrade if Ponder can't go.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 years, the Dallas Cowboys have been 1-4 as a favorite in week 4.
Another good win last week, but I'm really going out on a limb here this week.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line: DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with
Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter
of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents
so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss
to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been
tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good
team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough)
versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a
fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points
were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were
7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the
road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too
much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5
years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4
straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the
last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
0
Record:
ATS 4-0
ML 3-1 +330
Another good win last week, but I'm really going out on a limb here this week.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line: DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with
Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter
of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents
so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss
to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been
tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good
team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough)
versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a
fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points
were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were
7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the
road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too
much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5
years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4
straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the
last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
Another good win last week, but I'm really going out on a limb here this week.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line: DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with
Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter
of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents
so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss
to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been
tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good
team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough)
versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a
fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points
were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were
7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the
road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too
much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5
years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4
straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the
last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
0
Quote Originally Posted by NBA2H:
Record:
ATS 4-0
ML 3-1 +330
Another good win last week, but I'm really going out on a limb here this week.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line: DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with
Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter
of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents
so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss
to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been
tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good
team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough)
versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a
fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points
were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were
7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the
road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too
much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5
years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4
straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the
last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
Even though Dallas didn't pull out the victory, last week's pick was the
one I'm proudest of so far this season. Not only were they the biggest
underdogs I've picked so far since I started this, but it was astounding
the amount of flak I got when I was telling people that Dallas had a
good chance to win that game. I also want to point out that I spend a
good amount of time on the "Interesting Stat of the Week" in addition to
the weekly pick, and you would've hit a big winner if you followed last
week's stat. By the time Monday rolled around, no underdog of 6.5 or
more points had won straight up yet, and a play on the Jets to win
outright as 10 point underdogs would've netted a tidy profit.
Underdog of the Week:
CIN @ BUF
Line: BUF +7
BUF +260 ML
How do bad teams upset good teams? One of the simpler answers is
turnovers, something that is nearly impossible to predict. Yet over the
past 6 seasons, 7 favored teams lost in week 6 because their QB threw 3
or more picks. This has happened regardless of whether the QBs were bad
(Tim Rattay, Mark Sanchez), slightly above average (Alex Smith, Andy
Dalton, Eli Manning), or fantasy studs (Philip Rivers, Drew Brees).
Buffalo is a big home underdog here because they are starting their
practice squad QB, Thad Lewis. However, I think it's the Cincinnati QB
who's going to have a bad game. Dalton has a history of throwing picks
early in the season, having thrown at least one pick in each of his
first 8 games last season and in 4 of his first 5 games this season. Add
to that Buffalo's league leading 9 interceptions and 3rd ranked 18
sacks, and Dalton could be in for a long day.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there were no closing lines between 7.5 and 8.5
inclusive. Of the lines that were 9 or more points, favorites were 5-12
ATS and 12-5 SU.
0
Record:
ATS 5-0
ML 3-2 +230
Even though Dallas didn't pull out the victory, last week's pick was the
one I'm proudest of so far this season. Not only were they the biggest
underdogs I've picked so far since I started this, but it was astounding
the amount of flak I got when I was telling people that Dallas had a
good chance to win that game. I also want to point out that I spend a
good amount of time on the "Interesting Stat of the Week" in addition to
the weekly pick, and you would've hit a big winner if you followed last
week's stat. By the time Monday rolled around, no underdog of 6.5 or
more points had won straight up yet, and a play on the Jets to win
outright as 10 point underdogs would've netted a tidy profit.
Underdog of the Week:
CIN @ BUF
Line: BUF +7
BUF +260 ML
How do bad teams upset good teams? One of the simpler answers is
turnovers, something that is nearly impossible to predict. Yet over the
past 6 seasons, 7 favored teams lost in week 6 because their QB threw 3
or more picks. This has happened regardless of whether the QBs were bad
(Tim Rattay, Mark Sanchez), slightly above average (Alex Smith, Andy
Dalton, Eli Manning), or fantasy studs (Philip Rivers, Drew Brees).
Buffalo is a big home underdog here because they are starting their
practice squad QB, Thad Lewis. However, I think it's the Cincinnati QB
who's going to have a bad game. Dalton has a history of throwing picks
early in the season, having thrown at least one pick in each of his
first 8 games last season and in 4 of his first 5 games this season. Add
to that Buffalo's league leading 9 interceptions and 3rd ranked 18
sacks, and Dalton could be in for a long day.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there were no closing lines between 7.5 and 8.5
inclusive. Of the lines that were 9 or more points, favorites were 5-12
ATS and 12-5 SU.
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was a good start, but it's a long season.
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