Underdog of the Week

I like the Bills as well. 

Love your play every week

nice!!!

Record:
ATS 6-0
ML 3-3 +130

Another week, another big underdog pick that just couldn't pull out the win. Buffalo had a chance there at the end in OT, but the basis of my pick was turnovers, which are just too hard to predict. On the other hand, if you faded all the big 9 point or more favorites as indicated by the stat of the week, you would've gone 4-1 ATS.

Week 7:
BAL @ PIT
Line:
BAL +1 (some books even have it at 2.5)
BAL +110 ML

Week 7 can be a tough one for underdogs. Last season, only one underdog won straight up, and they did so by only one point (Tenn@Buff). My guess is that as the good teams start to pull away from the bad ones record-wise, it's tough for certain teams to find motivation. One good way for a team to be motivated, however, is to play a divisional match up. Over the past 6 seasons, road underdogs in week 7 division games were 6-9 straight up and 10-5 ATS, whereas non-divisional road dogs were 8-22 SU and 16-14 ATS.

There are two teams that fit the category this week in Baltimore and Dallas, but I prefer Baltimore. Despite the difference in record, the Steelers are a deserving favorite because their stats are actually better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage for Baltimore in the direct comparison so far this season has been turnovers, which as mentioned above are hard to predict. Pittsburgh, however, continues to face a rash of injuries while I can only imagine that Jacoby Jones and Ray Rice improve and open up the Baltimore offense as the season goes on. I also want to point out that the Steelers' lone win of the season came after a bye week, while the Ravens will be motivated to go all out with their bye week coming right after.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 seasons, it wasn't just divisional road dogs who performed well in week 7. Divisional road favorites were even better, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS.

not sure how i missed this thread.  nice work.  like the ravens.

Oh well, all streaks come to an end at some point. Just have to start a new winning streak.

Underdog of the Week:
ATL @ ARI
Line:
ATL +2 (some books have it at 2.5)
ATL +120 ML

While most of my picks so far have been based on previous years' trends, we're far along enough in the season to start looking at trends that have developed during this season. I originally read this trend in Bill Simmons' article on Grantland, but it has since been written about elsewhere and makes a lot of sense. Fade the team that played against Seattle's bruising defense the previous week.

Some would chalk the trend up to coincidence, but I vaguely remember similar trends from back when Baltimore and Pittsburgh had brutally punishing defenses a few years ago. Of course, it's possible that this streak will stop simply for the reason that Arizona is on 10 days' rest, but they also played a bruising 49er defense the week before playing Seattle.

I'm also curious about the line. While Atlanta is a more high profile name, Arizona has played well with excellent defense at home. Add to that Atlanta's road woes, and I would originally guess that sharps would be all over Arizona at home giving less than a FG. Yet the line hasn't moved to the key number of 3. In terms of the actual match up, while Atlanta has a losing record, all their games have been close, and none of the teams that they've lost to have been revealed to be particularly bad. If it comes down to the last possession or two, Matt Ryan vs. Carson Palmer is not much of a contest.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
So far this season, all the teams that have played Seattle have gone on to lose the following week, going 0-6 ATS and 0-2 straight up as a favorite.

Record:
ATS 6-1
ML 3-4 +30

hi, nba is coming, will you be posting nba picks

I might. Last night was good for me but overall need at least a month in the NBA before things develop. I might help out and start posting again if pho's system continues to do poorly.

There are a lot of 1 point spreads this week. I'm going to wait until Sunday morning for some clearer line action to post this week's pick.

i love ur picks sir. looking forward to it

 

Record:
ATS 6-2
ML 3-5 -70

Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ OAK
Line:
PHI +2
PHI +115 ML

Conventional wisdom has home field advantage worth about 3 points. Home teams that are about even or slightly worse than their opponents will still end up favored in the spread. However, that home field advantage hasn't seem to help those teams during week 9. In the past 5 seasons, home favorites of 3 or fewer points have gone 1-8 both straight up and ATS.

Philadelphia fits the criteria this week, being a small underdog despite scoring ten total points in their last two games combined. However, it's possible the Eagles just play better on the road, having been winless at home so far this season. The return of Nick Foles should help to jump start that offense as well.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past five seasons, home favorites of 3.5 points were 0-4 ATS and 0-2 SU.

Sorry posted this so late. Good luck all!

missed!

Had some stuff to take care of last week, but back to normal posting schedule this week.

Record:
ATS 7-2
ML 4-5 +30

Week 10:
SEA @ ATL
Line:
ATL +5.5
ATL +210 ML

As the season is now past the halfway point, it's easy to have the recency effect take over and only focus on what happened the previous week as opposed to earlier in the year. Teams coming off a bad loss may appear much worse than they actually are. Over the past 5 years, teams that have lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were a TD or less underdog in week 10 went 9-7 SU.

Atlanta has looked horrible the last two weeks, including week 8 when I took them against Arizona. However, both of those were on the road whereas they've had two wins at home as well as a close loss to a Jets team that's now proving to be not as bad as everyone first thought. I think Atlanta is in a good spot here this week. Seattle has been playing poorly the past two weeks, barely eking out wins against weak teams. Atlanta is still missing a couple of their top playmakers, but a few weeks of playing together and a return home should help the substitutes step up.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
Sometimes, bad teams are just bad, regardless of the recency effect. Over the past five seasons, those teams that lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were an underdog of more than a TD in week 10 went 2-6 ATS.

My two best underdog picks this week are Tampa Bay -1 on MNF to get its first win and Dallas +7 as Dallas rarely fails to cover as a dog of more than 4 points.

Seattle has been flabbifying but it wants revenge for the playoffs and it may turn out Atlanta is just plain bad. 

BTW, last week Philly opened as a favorite by the oddsmakers briefly before Oakland was made the favorite by bettors.

Record:
ATS 7-3
ML 4-6 -70

That's it, I'm done with Atlanta.

Week 11:
CLE @ CIN
Line:
CLE +5.5
CLE +210 ML

I really have no numbers or stats for this week. Last year, week 11 saw only one underdog win outright. The only team that might have had a trend, the Rams, is on a bye.

The Bengals have won all their home games so far this season. On the road, every game they've played has had a final differential of a FG or less, except for their loss to the Browns. I think that means something. People will point at the Browns' QB situation, but the focus should really be on their defense which was the only team so far this season to hold Cincy to single digits. If it does end up being a 9-6 type of game, I think the Browns can pull it out coming off a bye.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 6 seasons, a winless road team visiting an undefeated home team in week 11 has only happened twice. The home team won both times, but was only 1-1 ATS.

Record:
ATS 7-4
ML 4-7 -170

Week 12:
JAC @ HOU
Line:
JAC +10
JAC +385 ML

I like to look back at what happened the same week in previous seasons to help with my picks, but I don't think that will work this week. This year is one of those rare occasions when week 12 does not fall on Thanksgiving week. It's only happened one other time during the past seven years, back in 2008. So what happened then? The biggest underdog of the week, an offensively-challenged Raiders team led by Jamarcus Russell, went on the road and beat up the Denver Broncos, a middling division rival that year. Can something similar happen this year? I say it will!

The stories are very similar. Jacksonville is the biggest underdog this week, an offensively-challenged team visiting a mediocre division rival. Looking just at the stats, Houston is rightfully a double digit favorite. But the Jaguars have played better on the road than at home, having covered the spread in their last two away games. I continue to think it's because of those horrible black home uniforms. Couple that with Houston, who hasn't covered any spread at home this season, and there's a recipe for a big upset. There's a lot of internal strife in Houston right now, and the pressure of playing at home in front of booing fans may be too much to handle.

While Houston has very impressive stats on both sides of the ball (their main failure has been turnovers), they do appear to have one weakness, and that is defending tight ends. Perhaps Marcedes Lewis can regain some of the form from that one random 10TD season he had.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Couldn't find the data, but I'd have to imagine a 2-8 team as a double digit favorite is pretty rare.

I too like Jacksonville and the 10 points. 

Also like the NYJets as a 4 pt. dog because it is their turn to win this week.  (They have won every other game so far this year.)

 

You were shot your wad early on ATL get it back tonight

Record:
ATS 8-4
ML 5-7 +215

I finally hit a big underdog who won outright! Although some of you who tailed me early might have already given up after my mid-season slump and not cashed in on that Jacksonville play.

Week 13:
NO @ SEA
Line:
NO +5
NO +180 ML

Thanksgiving is one of the few public holidays in the US that begin in the middle of the week, so it drastically affects a lot of people's schedules. In the same way, my guess is it affects how NFL teams prepare, and a team with a few extra days might have a nice edge. The Saints and the Falcons played each other in last week's Thursday game, and both are underdogs this week.

Since I've already said that I'm done with the Falcons, I'm left with the Saints. There's plenty of motivation here as this is practically a playoff game for the Saints, with Carolina breathing down their necks and a chance at home field throughout if they can get the win here. There might also be a revenge factor at play as the Saints' last visit to Seattle was a playoff loss as a heavy favorite three seasons ago. The Saints also get Sproles back, who is essential as the short passing game with him is pretty much their equivalent of a running game.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Since Thursday night games became a staple of the schedule, Thanksgiving week underdogs who played the Thursday night game the previous week have a 5-3 straight up record.

Record:
ATS 8-5
ML 5-8 +115

Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.

Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
Line:
DET +2.5
DET +125 ML

With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.

Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.

My underdog picks of this week are Jax +3 vs. Houston and Seattle +2 at SF.

Record:
ATS 8-6
ML 5-9 +15

One thing that got lost among last week's crazy finishes was that if Antonio Brown had kept his toe in bounds, all favorites would have won straight up last week.

Underdog of the Week:
NO @ STL
Line:
STL +5.5
STL +210 ML

To me, this is the perfect let down spot for the Saints. They could easily be looking ahead to next week's game at Carolina, which rates to be their biggest game of the regular season. The public should be all over them as they just had a dominating win against those same division leading Panthers, but they do head into this week's game on short rest. Add to that New Orleans' big home-road disparity, and this is a recipe for an upset. St Louis has also been fairly frisky all year, and their last two losses were both on the road against teams in the playoff hunt with stellar defenses.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, week 15 favorites have only won without covering twice. As they either covered or lost outright, maybe we shouldn't worry about back door covers this week.

Record:
ATS 9-6
ML 6-9 +225

Sorry for the late post, and happy holidays to all!

Week 16:
CHI @ PHI
Line:
CHI +2.5
CHI +115 ML

While much has been made about the Eagles' "high powered offense" under Chip Kelly, it's unclear how well Philly actually does in a shootout, and they weren't up to the task last week at Minnesota. On the other hand, whether it's been Cutler or McCown under center, the Bears have been able to score. Chicago should also be more motivated, as the NFC North playoff picture is still unclear while the NFC East will come down to the week 17 game regardless.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the last 2 seasons, week 16 home favorites favored by a FG or less went 1-5 SU and ATS.

Record:
ATS 9-7
ML 6-10 +125

It's hard to believe that I've been at this for 17 whole weeks! It's been a fun, if not particularly profitable, ride. I want to thank those who've kept up with this thread, whether you tailed or not.

Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ DAL
Line:
DAL +6.5
DAL +230 ML

Much of the attention has been on the whole Romo (and Orton) thing, but how come noone talks about these two teams' earlier meeting this season? Foles started that game and they couldn't get anything going. Sure there's no Sean Lee now on Dallas' defense, but Romo didn't play particularly well that game either. While Orton may not be able to lead a huge comeback, he's also been a very consistent player throughout his career. Murray was also not in that first game, and his return will be big for Dallas here in the rematch. If the Eagles can't jump out to a big lead, they could easily be the ones in trouble in a close game late.

Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 seasons, there's been one winner-gets-the-division game each year and they were all won by the home team. This year we have two and the road team is favored in both!