Vegas Cleaned Up

Not surprising though.  NFL nearly impossible to cap.  Almost pointless.

100%

Read the lines that dont make sense. Bears +3, Bills +2 stuck out to me this week 

We do it again after tonight.  

Garbage 4th quarter.  My gosh.  All them TD in the 4th?  

@TxRangers

 You have to take into consideration live game bets, not just pre-game.  Hill being hurt crushed a lot of props too.

@TxRangers

Philadelphia Eagles 

@bpcuno

 Also:

parlays

teasers

if you think line movement doesn’t matter you are going to be a losing gambler. I bet 49ers this week at -10.5 as soon as I could. They win by 12 and all the last minute squares that took 49ers lost. Line movement is everything.

Vegas want's money evenly distributed on each side.  The lines move to try and balance the money distribution if it tilts to one side.  With 10cent juice its guaranteed profit for Vegas.  Don't overthink it.

absolutely.

Also notice that almost none of the books would make the move to 14 even though Miami money continues to pour in. They are very precise in how they operate and know just how to attract action on each side while protecting themselves.

6%-8%

You people are hilarious with a "smart money" and line movement theories. Do you even know what smart money is? It's a dude who has more money to bet on than we do! It's all it is. It shouldn't be called "smart money", it should be called "more money". Because they gamble with more money than we do. They lose just as often as we do. They don't know anything more than we do. All they do is BET more money, so that's why it's called smart money. But there's nothing smart about it

Last week "smart money" pushed the line to Dallas -9. How'd that turn out? Dallas won by 6. But you line movement freaks were freaking out when Vegas moved the line more with Dallas. That was hilarious. Everybody lost. Well, besides me because I had Dallas moneyline.

@TxRangers

 Assuming you are talking about the thanksgiving game- so the line move didn’t matter in that game. Dallas covered the opening and closing line. If you bet that game early and got Dallas -9.5 or 10 you’re in a way better position before the game kicks off, but you don’t see it that way. Ok no problem.

now we know (I’m assuming you know) that the spread on average is only a factor 12-13% of the time. Now if you go back and look at the games where the spread does matter, and look at games where the opening line wins and closing line loses you would find that there is a small advantage in knowing when to bet and how important it is. That small advantage is huge in the long run. Am I wrong?

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes it is especially when up to three points differential comes into play for both over/under and or a side

Vegas sometimes does take a risk by backing a side to make extra money.   They were backing the Titans big time to cover.

public won last 2 weeks, so inevitably they were going to clean up tonight lol 

@brn2loslive2win

I agree, but in that particular case with SF/Seattle, we had no idea Geno Smith wasn’t going to start until Sunday making the line move from -10.5 to -13.5 even -14 San Fran. once Drew Lock was announced as the stating QB

@porkdinner56

 Right but I was under the assumption that either way the line wasn’t going down, so I got in as early as I could. If it did go down I would have bet more. Regardless of the quarterback. I don’t believe Geno would have played any better than lock did (maybe worse). So IMO if you were betting the 9ers getting it as early as possible was important. 

They made plenty tonight. A lot of teasers and ML parlays were tied into these games tonight rolling over from the weekend. Balanced books is a myth. They have people coming and betting 300k on a single game. They were definitely rooting for titans outright and they got it. Its no secret now days. They flat out tell you who they need and want to win.