It seems to me (and I've been betting awhile now...... decades) that when an NFL line gets to and absurd number like, say, 13 and up the fave almost NEVER loses and rarely covers. Even the worse players on the dog are still NFL level players and seem to find a way to sneak within the number. I'll throw a little pizza money taking the points on these almost blindly and they almost always win.
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
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It seems to me (and I've been betting awhile now...... decades) that when an NFL line gets to and absurd number like, say, 13 and up the fave almost NEVER loses and rarely covers. Even the worse players on the dog are still NFL level players and seem to find a way to sneak within the number. I'll throw a little pizza money taking the points on these almost blindly and they almost always win.
the dallas/seattle game was the first game in almost 2 seasons of cowboy games where the spread actually came into play
Dallas and Pitt game don't look at the spread, just pick who wins SU. This week the +2 Dallas is getting wont make a difference, and the +3 Pitt is getting wont either
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the dallas/seattle game was the first game in almost 2 seasons of cowboy games where the spread actually came into play
Dallas and Pitt game don't look at the spread, just pick who wins SU. This week the +2 Dallas is getting wont make a difference, and the +3 Pitt is getting wont either
Vegas sometimes does take a risk by backing a side to make extra money. They were backing the Titans big time to cover.
it's rare, but you are actually a smart person on this website. People on this website thinks if a line is moving with a team, that money is COMING IN on that team????? That is hilariously wrong!!!! You are correct, Vegas "backs" certain games just like we do.But people actually believe all Vegas wants to do is break out even??? They don't think sports books make any money because they want to even the books, to break out even. Those "live movement" watchers are hilarious. Just like "smart money"watchers are hilarious. There's no such thing as "smart money" bets. Just because someone makes a 500k wager on a game, doesn't mean it's smart? All it means is, they have more money than we do.
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Quote Originally Posted by Team_player:
Vegas sometimes does take a risk by backing a side to make extra money. They were backing the Titans big time to cover.
it's rare, but you are actually a smart person on this website. People on this website thinks if a line is moving with a team, that money is COMING IN on that team????? That is hilariously wrong!!!! You are correct, Vegas "backs" certain games just like we do.But people actually believe all Vegas wants to do is break out even??? They don't think sports books make any money because they want to even the books, to break out even. Those "live movement" watchers are hilarious. Just like "smart money"watchers are hilarious. There's no such thing as "smart money" bets. Just because someone makes a 500k wager on a game, doesn't mean it's smart? All it means is, they have more money than we do.
do you think Vegas sports books just break out even? Do you think Vegas sportsbooks only make money through their juice? Because according to some people on this website, Vegas sportsbooks only want to break out even, and they only make money through juice? I don't think that. Most games, Vegas sports books makes thousands of dollars. But how do you think Vegas sportsbooks makes money?
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Quote Originally Posted by OneWayOut:
”Vegas” Kids….
do you think Vegas sports books just break out even? Do you think Vegas sportsbooks only make money through their juice? Because according to some people on this website, Vegas sportsbooks only want to break out even, and they only make money through juice? I don't think that. Most games, Vegas sports books makes thousands of dollars. But how do you think Vegas sportsbooks makes money?
They make thousands f dollars I tell you!! Thousands!!
I agree they make thousands of dollars. The mor ones freak out because the line moves, they think Vegas sports books only break out even??? They think sports books want even money on both sides??? They don't think Vegas sports books take sides on certain games. They don't think Vegas sports books once a certain side to win. It's hilarious those "line movements" and "smart money" watchers. They are hilarious. There is no such thing as "smart money"wagers. Only large wagers, not smart money wagers. 500K on a game is not a " smart money" wager. That only means the dude has more money to gamble with than you do. And that's all that means. But those line movement watchers are hilarious. They think they are really on to something.
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Quote Originally Posted by ruffcutter:
They make thousands f dollars I tell you!! Thousands!!
I agree they make thousands of dollars. The mor ones freak out because the line moves, they think Vegas sports books only break out even??? They think sports books want even money on both sides??? They don't think Vegas sports books take sides on certain games. They don't think Vegas sports books once a certain side to win. It's hilarious those "line movements" and "smart money" watchers. They are hilarious. There is no such thing as "smart money"wagers. Only large wagers, not smart money wagers. 500K on a game is not a " smart money" wager. That only means the dude has more money to gamble with than you do. And that's all that means. But those line movement watchers are hilarious. They think they are really on to something.
Let me ask you a question. Why wouldn’t Vegas want to make money purely off of juice? If they were able to successfully get half of the money on each side they would be running a business with guaranteed profit and zero risk. What part of that is not appealing?
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@TxRangers
Let me ask you a question. Why wouldn’t Vegas want to make money purely off of juice? If they were able to successfully get half of the money on each side they would be running a business with guaranteed profit and zero risk. What part of that is not appealing?
I have heard from a bunch of bookmakers both former and current that they do aim to keep balanced action most of the time but they do occasionally take a stance on some games. They dont just always balance action when they have a strong opinion.
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@brn2loslive2win
I have heard from a bunch of bookmakers both former and current that they do aim to keep balanced action most of the time but they do occasionally take a stance on some games. They dont just always balance action when they have a strong opinion.
@brn2loslive2win I have heard from a bunch of bookmakers both former and current that they do aim to keep balanced action most of the time but they do occasionally take a stance on some games. They dont just always balance action when they have a strong opinion.
that's exactly why when they interview the sports books managers, sometimes they say, we need this "certain" team to win. I've heard sports books managers from Las Vegas say this plenty of times. And I know you guys have too!!! You have heard Vegas sportsbook managers say that they need a "certain side" to win. Not every game, but sometimes yes. So everyone needs to stop with balance books every game and making money only from juice. This poster said he has heard from current and former managers saying they do take a stance on certain games. That's because they do!!!! So, in general, line movement doesn't mean anything that's the whole point. Because Vegas is not going to tell you why they moved a line in a certain direction. They move it with the money sometimes, they move it against the money sometimes. And sometimes they don't move it at all when there's heavy money coming in on one side. And that's pretty much common knowledge.
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Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:
@brn2loslive2win I have heard from a bunch of bookmakers both former and current that they do aim to keep balanced action most of the time but they do occasionally take a stance on some games. They dont just always balance action when they have a strong opinion.
that's exactly why when they interview the sports books managers, sometimes they say, we need this "certain" team to win. I've heard sports books managers from Las Vegas say this plenty of times. And I know you guys have too!!! You have heard Vegas sportsbook managers say that they need a "certain side" to win. Not every game, but sometimes yes. So everyone needs to stop with balance books every game and making money only from juice. This poster said he has heard from current and former managers saying they do take a stance on certain games. That's because they do!!!! So, in general, line movement doesn't mean anything that's the whole point. Because Vegas is not going to tell you why they moved a line in a certain direction. They move it with the money sometimes, they move it against the money sometimes. And sometimes they don't move it at all when there's heavy money coming in on one side. And that's pretty much common knowledge.
@TxRangers Let me ask you a question. Why wouldn’t Vegas want to make money purely off of juice? If they were able to successfully get half of the money on each side they would be running a business with guaranteed profit and zero risk. What part of that is not appealing?
that's simple. Because they aren't, able, to successfully get half the money on each side. That's impossible to do.
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Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
@TxRangers Let me ask you a question. Why wouldn’t Vegas want to make money purely off of juice? If they were able to successfully get half of the money on each side they would be running a business with guaranteed profit and zero risk. What part of that is not appealing?
that's simple. Because they aren't, able, to successfully get half the money on each side. That's impossible to do.
Yes. Some times they know there is a game where they know they probably will be giving money back. But one point is and again I don't know but percent of tickets vs. percentage of money has to be looked at for a game. But again after a couple of weeks of public winning those lines get inflated and those who are sharp grab it immediately. And by the time game time comes around it is many times too late for the public to get a great number. Not always but not as easy. Never thought when I first started gambling that a certain game what are they thinking. Always better to be the dam book. Too old to see how props are such an intriguing better offer at times but analytics are so nuts that it is just more ways for the books to say thank you for playing. Best of luck to all. We just hope the numbers fall our way that day
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Yes. Some times they know there is a game where they know they probably will be giving money back. But one point is and again I don't know but percent of tickets vs. percentage of money has to be looked at for a game. But again after a couple of weeks of public winning those lines get inflated and those who are sharp grab it immediately. And by the time game time comes around it is many times too late for the public to get a great number. Not always but not as easy. Never thought when I first started gambling that a certain game what are they thinking. Always better to be the dam book. Too old to see how props are such an intriguing better offer at times but analytics are so nuts that it is just more ways for the books to say thank you for playing. Best of luck to all. We just hope the numbers fall our way that day
I started laughing my ass off tonight. I was watching 30 on 30. It was the Heisman winner 1997 between manning, woodson, leaf and Moss. At the very end it showed the reporter in 1997 saying these words. " The smart money wasn't very smart after all". I started busting out laughing. Once again, there's no such thing as "smart money". All smart money means is? That that person has more money to wager with then you do. There's nothing "smart" about it?? I realize you gambler's aren't very intelligent. Yes, I just used the same word BACK TO BACK. Figure it out
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I started laughing my ass off tonight. I was watching 30 on 30. It was the Heisman winner 1997 between manning, woodson, leaf and Moss. At the very end it showed the reporter in 1997 saying these words. " The smart money wasn't very smart after all". I started busting out laughing. Once again, there's no such thing as "smart money". All smart money means is? That that person has more money to wager with then you do. There's nothing "smart" about it?? I realize you gambler's aren't very intelligent. Yes, I just used the same word BACK TO BACK. Figure it out
The books got crushed on sf alone. Pros pounded the niners from 10.5 and then hedged the hawks at 14. You would have thought it was downtown Minneapolis after that game.
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The books got crushed on sf alone. Pros pounded the niners from 10.5 and then hedged the hawks at 14. You would have thought it was downtown Minneapolis after that game.
Comments seems to me to be the most argumentative & sensible on this thread & a few others but come on man a lot of these threads are the same old narrative sh*t but different story ……let’s move on
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
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@TxRangers
Comments seems to me to be the most argumentative & sensible on this thread & a few others but come on man a lot of these threads are the same old narrative sh*t but different story ……let’s move on
Uh-oh, for all of the "line movement" watchers, the line has moved in the detroit, miami games. It has dropped, it's now Detroit -5, it's now Miami - 8.5. that means "smart money" is coming in on Denver and the Jets. RIGHT?!?! That's why the line dropped, RIGHT??? Don't freak out guys, I know y'all literally freak out when y'all see the line move. Vegas sportsbook managers are laughing their ass off at you guys because y'all freak out when they move the line. Calm down guys, easy, calm down. No one knows anymore than anyone else does. There is no such thing as "smart money". Calm down guys, take it easy.
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Uh-oh, for all of the "line movement" watchers, the line has moved in the detroit, miami games. It has dropped, it's now Detroit -5, it's now Miami - 8.5. that means "smart money" is coming in on Denver and the Jets. RIGHT?!?! That's why the line dropped, RIGHT??? Don't freak out guys, I know y'all literally freak out when y'all see the line move. Vegas sportsbook managers are laughing their ass off at you guys because y'all freak out when they move the line. Calm down guys, easy, calm down. No one knows anymore than anyone else does. There is no such thing as "smart money". Calm down guys, take it easy.
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Kids….
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