Was 2024 an outlier season for wagering?

A lot of talk by seasoned veterans here that last year was clearly an outlier vis a vis ATS outcomes.

I had a sensational year and wanted to look closer at the numbers to protect against a regression if that

might be incoming.So, like everything, in our world, and as Dylan sang "times they are a'changing". Look at gold as an example of

what I am thinking, up 50% quickly after years of sideways action.

Anyways, I have used SDQL protocols in GimmeTheDog's data base and posted in the quiver thread many exciting results for 2024.

Well, I decided to go back to 2022 in order to have a three year sample size and eliminate or confirm whether 2024 was an outlier year.

Many will say that is NOT nearly far enough back to matter, i disagree. My review mirror had been 5 years in the past and now is 3 years.

So, this 3 year window, for me confirms that 2024 was just a continuation of a recent trend. The trend is your friend, until it bumps it's head up against

recency bias and over adjustments line wise. For example, FAVORITES are up 16.5 %, OVERs up 17.1% since 2022.

Subsets:

AWAY FAVORITES:  up 21.2 % and OVER up 37.5%,   DIV. AWAY  FAVORITES:  up 12% and OVER up 48% ;-)

ARTIFICIAL SURFACE AWAY FAV:  up 29% and OVER up 50% ,  GRASS HOME FAV up 11% and OVER 22.7%

AWAY FAVORITES :  with line <-2.5  up 25% and OVER up 30.6%.

Also HOME DOGS with lines greater than 3 and less than 7 (3

have gone down 34.1% ATS wise and OVER has gone up 27.9%

These are all in trend, not outliers for last year!!!!

Nice research.  Thanks for the time and effort.

However, I suggest a cautious approach to the upcoming season which could very well favor the dogs.

I just queried for HF's alone.  Here are the ATS results by season and %:

2013 --- 55.2

2014 --- 49.2

2015 --- 42.8

2016 --- 52.3

2017 --- 53.7

2018 --- 43.8

2019 --- 44.2

2020 --- 44.8

2021 --- 46.6

2022 --- 45.9

2023 --- 52.1

2024 --- 52.7

It's easy to see that one or two seasons of HF's covering more than 50% can easily be followed by down seasons.

Maybe we'll finally have a fairly balanced season where HF's cover 49%-51% of the games.  They have been pretty rare.

Hmmmm.

from 2018 till last year is a 7 year trend and the trend is +17.1% which mirrors my 3 year sample.

At what point does a  capper concede that the game has changed thru rules, systems, analytics and the

lines have not kept pace? My 4 week  TEASER regression model has some insurance built in and the juice has

still not caught up....;-)

I would guess rule change helped on the overs.

Looking at DBW's HF the only time before 2013 that it hit 50% ats or more 2 times in a row was 1990-91 and 92, so it did it again in 2016-17 and the last 2 years, did any big rule change happen that would help a HF.

I'm with DBW on this one (However, I suggest a cautious approach to the upcoming season which could very well favor the dogs.)

I will expect away dogs, after a two year lull, to have a very strong year in 2025.  

Besides regression, books will make adjustments to keep the public from winning on favorites as they have recently.