All Forums | NFL Betting

Week 1: 4 team 13 point teaser (0-0 on season)

...

Participants:

Search

Posts: 90

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 2:37 AM ET #1

Well it is that time of year again... and I hope to see some of the regulars back on this thread this year...

So every week I look at a 4 team 13 point teaser and capping +13 points ATS...

10 units is the bankroll... min bet = .5 units maxbet = 2 units

This thread is not just about making picks, but creating discussion about capping teaser lines...

Good luck this season...

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 2:44 AM ET #2

Guidelines

1. Never play a 4 team 13 point teaser at any odds other then -120

I hear people talking about -140 or -160 type of odds and I can tell you it is not worth it...

I use a mixture of 5 dimes (best place for teasers) and bovada (because the lines lean against square like a parlay card)

2. Play only 1 teaser a week (4 games).

if you were to randomly pick games +13 points ATS (against the spread), history has shown that you will hit about 84%...

so knowing that more games will hit then not (some games even both sides will win), so what you are trying to do is avoid losers... not just focusing on trying to pick winners...

I would rather double my bet then try to pick 8 winners...

3. Play only sides

The numbers show historically that both sides and totals hit about 84%, so there is no advantage on either side...

I play only sides because of experience as I have only focused on sides over the years... historical data also shows no significant advantage for home/away...

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 2:44 AM ET #3

Theories

1. Lowering scoring games

I always start by looking at playing on games with the lowest totals because they give the most value to the +13 points ATS...

In a game that has a o/u of 39 points, +13 points ATS is a 3rd of the total...

But in a game that has an o/u of 52 points, + 13 points ATS is a 4th of the total...

So by proportion, the +13 points ATS has more value and more of an effect on the lower scoring game...

2. Covering the numbers

About 25% of all NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points...

So being aware of the points is a key... there is big difference between +3 vs +3.5 or +7 vs +7.5... this is the whole point of teasers, getting good numbers...

3. Home dog/bye dog combo

I tried to find the angle in the NFL that skews the +13 points ATS the farthest from the about 84%...

Home, away, favorites, underdogs, divisional foes, non divisional foes and coming off of bye weeks... I even looked at multi-variant analyses of combinations...

My original theory was in the combination of divisional underdogs, but found no correlation there...

Instead, based on the historical numbers I found a correlation when the combination of a home team, that is underdog, coming off of a bye week hit about 90%... and have watched this trend go longer then 4 seasons at a time with out failing...

I will often go max bet 2 units (20% of bankroll) if I can get one or more picks with this situation...

0

Edgewoodzgimp13

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 285

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 2:48 AM ET #4

I look foward to this thread as I think teasers are fun. I like Chi +3.5, NO +5.5, Mia +25, & NE +7.

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 3:09 AM ET #5

So here we go with an early look at the lines...

First off not even looking at the DAL/NYG game... dont like the number... dont like the match up..

CLE +22

Covering the 20 and 21 numbers is nice... 9 is a great number +13 points ATS because you could also get +4 going the other way and cover the ever important 3.... I feel like this line is a inflated anyways because of the perceptions of the teams involved...

ARZ +16

with an o/u total of 41, there is more value in getting 2 TDs then in a higher scoring game... if you think about it the o/u communicates that one of the two teams should not break 20... hopefully it is SEA...

BUF +16

Speaking of value in a lower scoring game... lets say I predict that NYJ will not score more then 3 TDs... then to get the 2 TD cushion to work I would also have to predict that BUF finds the endzone at least once maybe twice...

HOU +1

this is basically a money line bet... 12 is not great use of the +13 points because of crossing the zero to get nothing... works better for 3 team 10 point teasers...

Others lines that catch my eye... GB +8, JAX +17, PIt +14.5

any more ideas or suggestions?

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 3:15 AM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13:

I look foward to this thread as I think teasers are fun. I like Chi +3.5, NO +5.5, Mia +25, & NE +7.

I like CHI +3.5 because of the number and use of the +13 points...

I dont like the NE number at 7... could be the correct pick, but lacks value... MIA has a nice cushion, alot of points...not thrilled with NO's number tho...

NE and NO might be good picks to win SU... but does not translate well imo...

If you like those picks I would go with a 2 team 6 point teaser with NE pick and NO -1.5 at -110 odds...

0

Poseyman

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 51

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 3:56 AM ET #7

How about teasing the Saints or the Lions? Obv good teams to tease.

0

Poseyman

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 51

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 3:57 AM ET #8

I see you covered the Saints. Lions then lol.

0

Dubfire

Veteran

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 1004

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 4:17 AM ET #9

dl36, I'll be participating in your thread all season as I've experienced great success betting these in the past.

I try to only include home teams in the teasers, seems like road teams have a higher chance of being blown out. Even though I don't have any stats to back this up, I feel that when a home team is behind, they are more likely to not give up and try to make a comeback with the support of their home fans. Many times I see road teams just quitting if they're behind by 2 TDs.

0

MoneySRH

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8480

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 4:23 AM ET #10

Like'em all except the browns one. The potential for a huge blowout is way too high IMO. I like this thread idea, DL.

0

Dubfire

Veteran

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 1004

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 4:31 AM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

CLE +22

ARZ +16

BUF +16

HOU +1

Others lines that catch my eye... GB +8, JAX +17, PIt +14.5

CLE +22- Nice number but I'm not sure how they're going to score. I'm staying away

ARZ +16- Fantastic number in a game where I think the wrong team is favored. Cardinals always play close games at home and I can't see a rookie QB going to Arizona and winning by 17+. I already have this one locked in my teaser.

BUF +16- I think this should be fine. Personally I went the other way teasing the Jets to +11.5. I think Jet's offense will have something new in week 1 that no one has seen with Tebow and Sanchez getting in the mix.

HOU +1- This should be fine as well. But I can't bring myself to lose so many crucial points. Rather take them in a 10 point teaser and leave the other two legs open for next week.

GB +8- This one is already locked in for me in my teaser. 49ers aren't the type of team to win by two scores vs. an explosive offense. Their style will be to run out the clock by pounding the ball in the run game in the 4th if they are up. No way Rodgers loses by 10+ points.

JAX +17- Like you said, we're looking for non losers...why pick such a shitty team when there's so many better options. Plus, +17 is essentially +14.5. I don't like this at all.

Pitt +14.5- I think Pitt has lots of issues right now. Banged up oline, new starters on defense, banged up running backs, Mike Wallace just joining the team. I can't forget the fact that the steelers got blown out last year in week 1 at Baltimore.

0

LVTruck

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 31075

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 9:38 AM ET #12

gl This season

0

tankstevens

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2003

Posts: 3310

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 9:44 AM ET #13

Love the Packers +8.5, and Arizona +16. Those would be my 2 standard plays in any teaser combo for this week.

Ex-WTA tennis coach, over 20 years. PATREON I AM ON! Now I bet. No Coach. People shut cat

0

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 10:50 AM ET #14

My favorite teams for a 13 point teaser this week:

Dallas +16.5
Cleveland +21.5
Buffalo +15.5
San Francisco +18
Tampa Bay +15.5
Cincinnati +19.5

0

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 10:54 AM ET #15

Gun to my head on a 4 team, 13 point teaser, I'd take: BUF +15.5, SF +18, TB +15.5, and CIN +19.5

I just don't see any of those teams getting the doors blown off of them in the first game -- Buffalo great D and NYJ terrible offensively, San Francisco has a very attractive defense, Tampa Bay gets a crappy Carolina defense on the road, and Cincinnati has a solid enough defense and good enough offense to keep it within 17 points with Baltimore.

0

Louis_IV

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 34704

Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 11:50 AM ET #16

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 3:02 AM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by Poseyman:

I see you covered the Saints. Lions then lol.

I dont like the number at 5.5... you can get a better deal on a 6 point tease to -1.5... and at -110 odds...

as I said before, you might be correct on the pick, but it is not a the optimal use of the +13 points ATS...

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 3:09 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:

dl36, I'll be participating in your thread all season as I've experienced great success betting these in the past.

I try to only include home teams in the teasers, seems like road teams have a higher chance of being blown out. Even though I don't have any stats to back this up, I feel that when a home team is behind, they are more likely to not give up and try to make a comeback with the support of their home fans. Many times I see road teams just quitting if they're behind by 2 TDs.

I hope to see you on this thread weekly...

I have been doing these almost 20 years now and it is my only real sports wagering I do now... spent alot of time working on this niche...

initially I thought that home teams were the way to go but statistically there is no significant difference... a few reasons for this is that home teams automatically give 3 points or in the line... and that home teams are favored more often so you lose value in crossing the zero... I love home dogs although the math on that shows no significant difference either...

I hear you about the road team quitting... but I also think that when a road team is up by more then 2 TDs they are trying to run out the clock and not embarrass the home team... Although you have to look out for rivalries and games that seem personal as I remember a DEN/OAK many years ago where I would assume once up shanahan would ease up but instead piled it on...

every week I put up the options Im thinking of and then whittle it down to the four picks I go with?

what do you see as options this week?

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 6:42 AM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by MoneySRH:

Like'em all except the browns one. The potential for a huge blowout is way too high IMO. I like this thread idea, DL.

I will take the blow out possibility into consideration...

I only need to 4 so one ive figured out my options I start ranking them...

0

HungerforMoney

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 2223

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 7:14 AM ET #20

loving this thread!!

0

MoneySRH

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8480

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 9:31 AM ET #21

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Eagles average 25 points a game, they have a super bowl caliber offense and defense this year, and the Browns have a rookie QB leading an offense that averages 14 points a game.

Detroit Lions +3.5

The book is giving me +3.5 on a Lions team that averages 30 points a game at home against a team that averages 12 points a game.

Atlanta Falcons +10

Falcons win by an average of 12 point’s game and the Chiefs average 12 points a game on offense.

Houston Texans -1

The Texans have a defense that gave up 14 points a game last season and have a monster offense against a Dolphin’s team that ranked 25 against the pass with a rookie QB on the road.

I just can’t see the Browns, Rams, Chiefs, or Dolphins winning any of these games. People are saying to watch out for the Chiefs, but I believe the Falcons are an all round elite team that knows they have to start winning on the road. I gotta feeling that the Falcons are looking to make a statement in this one.

The Falcons had better show the hell up because I have Dallas -6 on a two GM pleaser and I have the Falcons -11 with 1200 on the line.

That’s my 4-teamer for -130

0

lakers34kb

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 25833

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 9:54 AM ET #22

0

dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Sep. 6, 2012 - 5:09 PM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:

CLE +22- Nice number but I'm not sure how they're going to score. I'm staying away

ARZ +16- Fantastic number in a game where I think the wrong team is favored. Cardinals always play close games at home and I can't see a rookie QB going to Arizona and winning by 17+. I already have this one locked in my teaser.

BUF +16- I think this should be fine. Personally I went the other way teasing the Jets to +11.5. I think Jet's offense will have something new in week 1 that no one has seen with Tebow and Sanchez getting in the mix.

HOU +1- This should be fine as well. But I can't bring myself to lose so many crucial points. Rather take them in a 10 point teaser and leave the other two legs open for next week.

GB +8- This one is already locked in for me in my teaser. 49ers aren't the type of team to win by two scores vs. an explosive offense. Their style will be to run out the clock by pounding the ball in the run game in the 4th if they are up. No way Rodgers loses by 10+ points.

JAX +17- Like you said, we're looking for non losers...why pick such a shitty team when there's so many better options. Plus, +17 is essentially +14.5. I don't like this at all.

Pitt +14.5- I think Pitt has lots of issues right now. Banged up oline, new starters on defense, banged up running backs, Mike Wallace just joining the team. I can't forget the fact that the steelers got blown out last year in week 1 at Baltimore.

you are the 2nd person to say CLE looks scary... I can understand the perception, but 22 points is alot in the NFL... might not be the right pick but the value is there... especially as at home...

I dont like NYJ at that number... crossing the zero for what could be a SU loss is risky... although do like 11.5 much better then then 10 I would get...

JAX 17 is not about JAX as much as it is about predicting that MIN will not blow them out... I actually see more risk in this pick on some level then the CLE pick because of they are on the road and the number is not as good...

PIT does have issues, but lets remember that the they had the superbowl loser curse on them last year...

speaking of which...

shouldnt we all be considering TEN +19?