Quote Originally Posted by MoneySRH:
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5Eagles average 25 points a game, they have a super bowl caliber offense and defense this year, and the Browns have a rookie QB leading an offense that averages 14 points a game.
Detroit Lions +3.5The book is giving me +3.5 on a Lions team that averages 30 points a game at home against a team that averages 12 points a game.
Atlanta Falcons +10Falcons win by an average of 12 point’s game and the Chiefs average 12 points a game on offense.
Houston Texans -1The Texans have a defense that gave up 14 points a game last season and have a monster offense against a Dolphin’s team that ranked 25 against the pass with a rookie QB on the road.
I just can’t see the Browns, Rams, Chiefs, or Dolphins winning any of these games. People are saying to watch out for the Chiefs, but I believe the Falcons are an all round elite team that knows they have to start winning on the road. I gotta feeling that the Falcons are looking to make a statement in this one.
The Falcons had better show the hell up because I have Dallas -6 on a two GM pleaser and I have the Falcons -11 with 1200 on the line.
That’s my 4-teamer for -130
I think PHI is a good deal at that number... hard to argue with it... I actually think that NFL lines are built on perception and that this spread should really be closer to 7... but because of the "dream team" playing the "worst team in the league" the line feels inflated... I do see this as a solid pick tho...
I like your logic on the DET game.. capping +13 points ATS is not about picking winners but actually about not picking losers since randomly +13 points ATS hits about 83-85%...
So the stat about DET scoring is not necessarily as important as the crucial part of their opponent not scoring... you could imagine the value if you faded STL as a fav and get 14 or more points against a team that averages 12...
I do feel however that your 3.5 might be the right pick and is a nice number, but I am getting it better value at +5.5 which covers both the 4 and 5 number....
With you on HOU as a SU winner... good pick...
I like your idea of fading KC because of their lack of offense... I am not thrilled about the number 10, -3 is a touch number to tease at 6,10 or 13... but getting +10 is probably the best outcome of teasing -3... but crossing the zero on a road fav seems scary although it is probably the a good pick...
finally the -130 odds hurt... I get -120 from 5 dimes and bovada... doesnt seem like much but over a 17 week season it can add up...
Thanks for your effort...
keep posting on this thread and the weekly thread this season
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