I'm diggin these angles to start the season. I like to utilize box scores but they don't mean much until week 4 or 5. I need all the angles for getting thru weeks 1-3
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I'm diggin these angles to start the season. I like to utilize box scores but they don't mean much until week 4 or 5. I need all the angles for getting thru weeks 1-3
There have been 9 teams that had at least a -15 turnover differential for the season and who won only 3 games. Fits the Jags and the Bears.How many games did those teams win the following year?5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 10Which means that 8 out of 9 teams won at least what the Bears season win total is, as of right now.
Incredible read, curious if there has been any correlation with these teams having a new qb the following yr? Bortles being consistent makes me think jags will fit this model. Bears with a new qb makes me think they may be more unpredictable?
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
There have been 9 teams that had at least a -15 turnover differential for the season and who won only 3 games. Fits the Jags and the Bears.How many games did those teams win the following year?5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 10Which means that 8 out of 9 teams won at least what the Bears season win total is, as of right now.
Incredible read, curious if there has been any correlation with these teams having a new qb the following yr? Bortles being consistent makes me think jags will fit this model. Bears with a new qb makes me think they may be more unpredictable?
alabamamam, all of my queries are week 1, except in the case of discussing season wins. Good to see you.
Thanks for the comments everyone, we'll try to keep it positive and successful this season.
I don't research new coaching staffs or quarterbacks and someone who has knowledge of if/when that occurred could further research and find more correlations perhaps, or not. Inevitably when discussing season wins, teams that had bad years would have gotten new coaches some of the time.
All of my week one queries have the basic premise.....taking teams with a worse record last year than their week 1 opponent as dogs, especially if they won less than 8 games last year.
Monday Night Football teams in the above scenario have been 9-3-1 ATS.....Saints, Chargers
The sweet spot for these teams has been those that have won >3 and <8 games last year, going 101-55 ATS, 64.7%
Jets, Cardinals, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Saints.
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alabamamam, all of my queries are week 1, except in the case of discussing season wins. Good to see you.
Thanks for the comments everyone, we'll try to keep it positive and successful this season.
I don't research new coaching staffs or quarterbacks and someone who has knowledge of if/when that occurred could further research and find more correlations perhaps, or not. Inevitably when discussing season wins, teams that had bad years would have gotten new coaches some of the time.
All of my week one queries have the basic premise.....taking teams with a worse record last year than their week 1 opponent as dogs, especially if they won less than 8 games last year.
Incredible read, curious if there has been any correlation with these teams having a new qb the following yr? Bortles being consistent makes me think jags will fit this model. Bears with a new qb makes me think they may be more unpredictable?
They may also have had new coaching staffs. New Orleans had both in 2006 when they went from 3-13 to 10-6. I like Chicago to win over 5 games this year. They have a good chance to start 1-0.
I got the bears under 5.5 :( Still comfortable with it as i dont see then having a chance until week 5.
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Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:
Quote Originally Posted by Silk24:
Incredible read, curious if there has been any correlation with these teams having a new qb the following yr? Bortles being consistent makes me think jags will fit this model. Bears with a new qb makes me think they may be more unpredictable?
They may also have had new coaching staffs. New Orleans had both in 2006 when they went from 3-13 to 10-6. I like Chicago to win over 5 games this year. They have a good chance to start 1-0.
I got the bears under 5.5 :( Still comfortable with it as i dont see then having a chance until week 5.
This is not a great line NOW, but early indications are that this line is moving south as one site has 63% of the early betting on the Cards. Could I be wrong on the line movement?....definitely, but this one I am not waiting on and my other picks have moved slightly the way I've bet them. Line shopping and predicted line movement are important, but unless one has access to a sportsbook handle and how much money they're taking on each teams, it is an inexact science.
I am using this query, which is 44-13 ATS.
AD and week = 1 and tpS(W) < opS(W) and 2<tpS(W)<8 and line<7
Play ON a week one away dog that had less regular season wins last year than their week one opponent, if they won between 2 and 8 games last year.
If our play ON team outrushes their opponent, this goes to 31-1 ATS, and 22-11 straight up.
Detroit had no rushing game last year, and I don't expect that they will this year either. Arizona has a great running back, a positive rushing yards/game differential from last year while Detroit's was terrible last year. I feel Bruce Arians is an offensive genius and has had a very good ATS record until last year.
I expect Arizona to be a play ON team this year, as they have been very good in the past and had one bad year. Detroit, meanwhile overachieved with a quarterback that is way below 500 in his career against winning teams,........they won a lot of close games which usually does not translate well the following season.
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Adding:
4) AZ Cardinals +105
To my other plays....
1) Jaguars +4
2) Saints +3.5
3) Chargers +3.5
This is not a great line NOW, but early indications are that this line is moving south as one site has 63% of the early betting on the Cards. Could I be wrong on the line movement?....definitely, but this one I am not waiting on and my other picks have moved slightly the way I've bet them. Line shopping and predicted line movement are important, but unless one has access to a sportsbook handle and how much money they're taking on each teams, it is an inexact science.
I am using this query, which is 44-13 ATS.
AD and week = 1 and tpS(W) < opS(W) and 2<tpS(W)<8 and line<7
Play ON a week one away dog that had less regular season wins last year than their week one opponent, if they won between 2 and 8 games last year.
If our play ON team outrushes their opponent, this goes to 31-1 ATS, and 22-11 straight up.
Detroit had no rushing game last year, and I don't expect that they will this year either. Arizona has a great running back, a positive rushing yards/game differential from last year while Detroit's was terrible last year. I feel Bruce Arians is an offensive genius and has had a very good ATS record until last year.
I expect Arizona to be a play ON team this year, as they have been very good in the past and had one bad year. Detroit, meanwhile overachieved with a quarterback that is way below 500 in his career against winning teams,........they won a lot of close games which usually does not translate well the following season.
May have one or two more...will NOT play totals this year as they never has worked for me.
I am now contemplating the Tampa Bay Bucs, week 1,.....maybe Jay Cutler throws three touchdowns in the first half of an NFL exhibition game and the line move to Miami -3.
"The mind is a terrible thing to waste", the saying goes.
Jay Cutler has been a terrible waste then....he is the epitome of a loser that coaches always seem to get fooled by. The two most important things in an athlete are their hearts and minds, and Cutler has failed miserably in both respects throughout his career. Yet coaches love awesome physical specimens......the arm, the ability to jump out of gym, etc., etc. Just keep coaches away from the "World's Strongest Man" competition, they'd be signing guys that can't play, left and right. The Vikings drafted a receiver out of South Carolina about 8-10 years ago, Troy Somethingorother....speed to burn..world class speed,..... they neglected to notice that most little leaguers could catch a ball better than he could.
Does your quarterback get your team Ws....yes or no? At the very least, does he make your teammates/team better, yes or no?
So far Cutler's career the answer has been "NO" and "NO". And they are paying this guy 10 million?,...... as the Wicked Witch of the West said....."WHATA WORLD, WHATA WORLD!!"
Feeling for Matt Moore, the guy is the antithesis of Jay Cutler...not super athletic skills, but makes plays, puts his team in a position to win, puts the team first...and they're ignoring all of it to put the team in the hands of a bonehead. When the going gets tough, Jay Cutler will muck it up....I'll be putting my money on it.
Can the leopard change his spots? Jesus healed the 10 lepers, we'll see if Adam Gase has similar ability.
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May have one or two more...will NOT play totals this year as they never has worked for me.
I am now contemplating the Tampa Bay Bucs, week 1,.....maybe Jay Cutler throws three touchdowns in the first half of an NFL exhibition game and the line move to Miami -3.
"The mind is a terrible thing to waste", the saying goes.
Jay Cutler has been a terrible waste then....he is the epitome of a loser that coaches always seem to get fooled by. The two most important things in an athlete are their hearts and minds, and Cutler has failed miserably in both respects throughout his career. Yet coaches love awesome physical specimens......the arm, the ability to jump out of gym, etc., etc. Just keep coaches away from the "World's Strongest Man" competition, they'd be signing guys that can't play, left and right. The Vikings drafted a receiver out of South Carolina about 8-10 years ago, Troy Somethingorother....speed to burn..world class speed,..... they neglected to notice that most little leaguers could catch a ball better than he could.
Does your quarterback get your team Ws....yes or no? At the very least, does he make your teammates/team better, yes or no?
So far Cutler's career the answer has been "NO" and "NO". And they are paying this guy 10 million?,...... as the Wicked Witch of the West said....."WHATA WORLD, WHATA WORLD!!"
Feeling for Matt Moore, the guy is the antithesis of Jay Cutler...not super athletic skills, but makes plays, puts his team in a position to win, puts the team first...and they're ignoring all of it to put the team in the hands of a bonehead. When the going gets tough, Jay Cutler will muck it up....I'll be putting my money on it.
Can the leopard change his spots? Jesus healed the 10 lepers, we'll see if Adam Gase has similar ability.
Nice Doc....the Jets keep coming up in all of my investigations as an indicated play and I can't see myself pulling the trigger on them.
The Eagles, I AM interested in....maybe it'll go to 3 and if not, may moneyline them.
To clarify re: your inquiry.....for the rushing yards, it is on the day, not what transpired last year. So, if the Cards (and the Jets) outrush the Lions (and Bills) respectively in week 1, teams in that scenario have failed to cover once in over 30 tries.
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Nice Doc....the Jets keep coming up in all of my investigations as an indicated play and I can't see myself pulling the trigger on them.
The Eagles, I AM interested in....maybe it'll go to 3 and if not, may moneyline them.
To clarify re: your inquiry.....for the rushing yards, it is on the day, not what transpired last year. So, if the Cards (and the Jets) outrush the Lions (and Bills) respectively in week 1, teams in that scenario have failed to cover once in over 30 tries.
If the Raiders become week one away dogs, THEN the best part of the fade from the query above will kick in and we will take the Titans as a home favorite......35-10 ATS.
Titans my fave play so far this Sunday. GL man.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
If the Raiders become week one away dogs, THEN the best part of the fade from the query above will kick in and we will take the Titans as a home favorite......35-10 ATS.
I have a week 1 road underdog system that is amazingly close to yours.
Mine is based on a combination of both s/u and ats performances in the last 3 games of the reg. season both home and away from the prev. year.
Since 2012 (last 5 years) its ats record is 27-0.
My week 1 road dogs and play AG. them are
Play AG. KC (NE the play)
PLAY ON OAK +2 (great on the road any week the last 2 years)
ARZ +1 (got them at +1--may not be a play if a fav. but happy with them anyway)
JACK + something (emotions will drive this line up to close to 7 by game time and the fans and players can have their tears and smiles when its over with their 3 or 4 pt. win)
NYJ +7
SEA +3.5 (-116)
NO + something
SD +something
7 or 8 plays total
ARZ, NO and SD will make up 3 of my 5 Westgate picks.
Quite close to yours 999 with the exception of OAK and maybe SEA your not liking. Keep in mind the raiders are 12-2 ats on the road the last 2 years at -2.5 or less or a dog with Carr starting.
GL 999
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I have a week 1 road underdog system that is amazingly close to yours.
Mine is based on a combination of both s/u and ats performances in the last 3 games of the reg. season both home and away from the prev. year.
Since 2012 (last 5 years) its ats record is 27-0.
My week 1 road dogs and play AG. them are
Play AG. KC (NE the play)
PLAY ON OAK +2 (great on the road any week the last 2 years)
ARZ +1 (got them at +1--may not be a play if a fav. but happy with them anyway)
JACK + something (emotions will drive this line up to close to 7 by game time and the fans and players can have their tears and smiles when its over with their 3 or 4 pt. win)
NYJ +7
SEA +3.5 (-116)
NO + something
SD +something
7 or 8 plays total
ARZ, NO and SD will make up 3 of my 5 Westgate picks.
Quite close to yours 999 with the exception of OAK and maybe SEA your not liking. Keep in mind the raiders are 12-2 ats on the road the last 2 years at -2.5 or less or a dog with Carr starting.
seems that by basing your picks on trends backed by hard quantitative days, there would be less tendency to bet emotionally or on hunches. psychologically as a capper that would make me confident when betting.
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seems that by basing your picks on trends backed by hard quantitative days, there would be less tendency to bet emotionally or on hunches. psychologically as a capper that would make me confident when betting.
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