Week 12 props! (67-45 ytd)

Week 11 was decent going 6-4 overall with the posted picks ( 8-4 with 2 bets I couldn't get in to post) and that brings us into Thanksgiving day football to kick off week 12. Turkey , beer and props what more could anyone ever want? Money? Well its time to chase the green and the food/beverage so lets get it started with an earlish intro week 12.

Stafford ov 274.5 passing (-115)

Interesting that Stafford has cleared this mark in 7 of his last 10 turkey day games. May not be the most intriguing stat but still notable.  The lions should be playing from behind in this one and I like Stafford closer over 300 yards tomorrow. Hes gonna be slinging it and should result in hitting this over. Lets hope that thumb isn't troublesome.

Cooks ov 69.5 receiving (-115)

The last total comes in 6 yards over cooks avg receiving yards per game through 10 games but that number is also skewed slightly from his goose egg on just 3 targets previously to the vikings. With just a 6 yard difference from his average coupled with the lions 5th worst pass defense i think cooks could have one of his bigger games tomorrow. It should be a game where he's closer to 100 yards then he is being under the 69.5 total.

Thats it for now. Have a busy day ahead with Thanksgiving prep and life. But as always stay tuned as ill have 1 more prop to put out later in the evening for 3 props on the lions game followed by update for Washington and the cowboys.

Best of luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving.  Lets stuff our mouths while we stuff our wallets!

First of all, thanks for sharing your picks. It's much appreciated.

Second, I would normally like the Stafford prop but his last 3 games produced 178, 276, and 211 pass yds which coincides with Golladay's absence. Also, with Deandre Swift out that's another viable weapon he can't dump off to.

I guess there is a contrarian perspective to this where the avg Joe would assume 274.5 is too high given recent lackluster performances and go under. 

Anyway, just sharing thoughts. As iron sharpens iron.

@JetsFan86

 Stafford could barely throw last week because of the thumb. Hard to bank on him.

@thekoreanmang

No Golladay does hurt butt doesn't affect the amount of passes i see incoming from Stafford and im basing it more on how I think game will flow combined with the passing volume not so much based on having golladay or not but I did take this into consideration with the bet so you're def not wrong at all. Appreciate your reply thank you for taking the time for a thought out reply!

@pollaxt

 Last week is last week. New day new game.  

*Adding*

Watson longest completion ov 39.5 yards (-110)

Woke up to Stafford line actually 265.5 so over 265.5 it is!

Thats gonna be it for the lions game. Ill update later with cowboys/Washington props BOL to all and hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving! 

Is there 3 plays on this game, thanks 

GL & Happy Thanksgiving jetsfan

@JetsFan86

 Lower line def makes me like that Stafford bet. Just read Tagliere's writeup on Stafford this week. Bodes well for us:

Matthew Stafford: The injuries to Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and D’Andre Swift proved to be too much for Stafford and the Lions offense to overcome. The Lions didn’t generate a single point and were held to just 185 total yards against the Panthers. It was the first game ever that he’s started and the finished with zero points on the board. He’ll look to bounce back against a Texans team that’s allowed just 18.3 points per game to their opponents over the last three weeks, though it’s worth noting their opponents were the Jaguars, Browns, and Patriots. Teams have only chosen to throw the ball on 53.1 percent of plays against the Texans, which is the third-lowest percentage in the league, but it’s probably the correct thing given how bad their run defense is. However, with the Lions defense being almost equally as bad, it’s possible that the Texans jump out front, which would obviously add value to Stafford’s projection. Despite the lack of big volume, the only quarterbacks who’ve finished with fewer than 17.18 fantasy points against the Texans this year were Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, who combined for just 42 pass attempts. There have been four quarterbacks (including Jake Luton) who’ve thrown for 300-plus yards against them, so this should be considered a bounce-back spot for Stafford, though getting some offensive weapons back would surely help. He should be posted top-18 numbers in this matchup as a floor, though Stafford hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this year, so he stays in high-end QB2 range.

@thekoreanmang

 I agree. I find the "consensus"  line for bets I like and do my write up accordingly and adjust later if need be because my guy has props out late at times. Still liked it at 274.5 and like it even more know and locked it in

@LEAFSRGR8

 Yes . Watson longest completion ov 39.5yards

Cooks ov 69.5 receiving and Stafford ov 265.5 passing are the plays in on for early game

@Macwestie1

 Thanks bud happy Thanksgiving to you as well!

*Adding*

Antonio Gibson ov 72.55 rushing/receiving (-110)

Gibson had a record day vs Dallas in week 7 logging 20/128/1 which was also the only game he recorded no targets in the passing game. Dallas def has played a little better and last week targets out of the backfield were funneled away from McKissic. I like Gibson to get over the combined total on rushing alone possibly as Dallas rush def has been lackluster so taking the combined total makes a lot of sense here to me in a game where he shouldn't repeat 0 targets.  Only line I've seen today that seems substantially lower then what I'd peg it at.

For those in eligible states, Fanduel has O69.5 (-113) for the Gibson prop. 

Cooks ov 69.5 receiving 

@thekoreanmang

 Ty for that! 

Watson longest completion ov 39.5 yards 

And Stafford ov 265.5 passing 

Thats a morning sweeeeeeeeeeep! Good work to anyone who tailed we got em again baby!

@JetsFan86

 Antonio Gibson over 76.5?

@alexmty

 Combined yardage for Gibson i got at 72.5 bit would play up to 79.5

@alexmty

 I like the combined more just because Gibson game against Dallas week 7 he had 0 targets to contribute for receiving so 55.5 rushing is good but im taking the combined total

*Adding*

Scary Terry ov 76.5 receiving (-125)

Terry should get major volume today vs an improving yet still questionable cowboys defense.  I think this game will be close but Washington will stay in it and Smith will test that def early and often with Terry. 

That will conclude Thanksgiving day props. Hope everyone stuffs their mouths and wallets today. Anyone who followed is always working on the latter!

Best of luck everyone and be safe!

@JetsFan86

 Thank you! I have terry at 83.5...is that a no

play?