Week 14 SANTA CLAUS has more FREE $$$ to give away

Still have Arizona left Thorpe but Eagles scare me with Jalen Hurts that kid is a winner from his collegiate career with the Sooners/Crimson Tide to the NFL and upsetting the Saints yesterday! Also still have Las Vegas, San Francisco, Chicago, Washington, Houston, Denver, and the rest of the bottom feeders. Considering Buffalo because they still haven't clinched the AFC East and with a win against the Broncos they could put a lot of pressure on Miami beating the Patriots on Sunday. I believe McDermott will have them focused and ready to play at Mile High on Saturday afternoon.

The BILLS definitely saw it ...Players were pissed ...

Cant wait to Watch it back on ALL 22 .

.2 and 3 plays before the Taron Johnson PICK 6 , the BILLS hit JUJU off the line of scrimmage with DE/LB AJ Espenaza and Milano .Looks like he was gassed on the interception and ran a sluggish route and then gave up chasing Johnson after the INT ..

In the 3rd quarter the Norman slams him on a running play .The next 2 plays he basically quit ..

Again in the 4th they jam him a LB at line ..Klein on one play and AJ Espenaza 

@CanadaCup

Looking ahead...

Week 16, I think you will have the choice of the Bears at the Jags or Washington hosting the Panthers (assuming a healthy Alex Smith)

You wouldn't take the Cards Week 16 or Week 17, so burning them week 15 won't cost you anything.  I'd want to keep the Bills as an option Week 17. It is possible they have a spot locked up and rest starters, but IMO it is more likely they need the win and Miami doesn't which would make them a large favorite. You don't have many other options Week 17

Vegas at Denver = coinflip

San Fran host Seattle = underdog

Chicago hosts Green Bay = underdog 

Washington at Philly (coinflip)

Houston hosts Tenn (dog)

I know Hurts played a good game, but Lock for Denver also played his best game. I think Arizona will be better suited to stop Hurts because they have to face a QB like him in practice.

Good luck whatever you decide.

[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmybuckets87]@DoubleUp4Life  people have said they are playing better after they played the jets and patriots, then gave up 30+ to both seattle and arizona, nice performance vs the chargers and then last week mullens threw for 300 vs them. i think ben and this offense is a bit of a step up in class. they are getting turnovers though which is greatly impacting the games and allen is really playing tremendous football and should be able to take advantage of a banged up steelers defense.[/Quote

The BILLS defense  have not been healthy all season until the 49ers game ...

The deep rotation in the front 7 is the key ...McDermott and Frazier are using a ton of different looks on the line of scrimmage..

Secondary was decimated since the Tirans game ...Completely different until now , than it was 3 weeks ago ..

@DoubleUp4Life

 The Bills will get smoked by KC, or Pitt. in the playoffs! Enjoy while it lasts.

@jpot34

With that Steelers running game and a 39 year old QB with his best days behind him? Yeah good luck with that!! 

KC will not repeat as AFC Champions!! 

@thorpe

 Great insight Thorpe much appreciated!! 

KC is the NFL's golden Goose...Theyll likely help them win another super Bowl if needed.   

The Steelers injuries are massive at LB ...If they have any more it will be catastrophic  ...I'll be looking to fade them in their first game no matter who they play ...They dont have much of a running game , and maybe the BILLS gave the league the blue print to stop the dink and dunk  ????

I'm not betting either side...Don't see any reason to bet either side ...Coin Flip ???

Spreading some money across the board on props to Get my required DEGEN FIX 

 Small plays for DEGEN action 

Lamar Jackson to score a TD +150

$50/75 

Rashard Higgins over 38.5 rec yards -118

$35.40/30 

$26 On it coming down to the wire 

BROWNS 1st Half / Tie at end of Regulation  +2900.  +10/290

RAVENS 1st half /Tie at end of Regulation +2800.  +10/280 

Game to end in a tie +7000

$6/$420

TO SCORE 2+ TDS 

LAMAR +850

$8/68

R HIGGINS +2500

$3/75

TO SCORE A TD 

BAKER +900

$5/45

WEEK 14. 1-0. +$921 

NFL YTD

25-14-1. +5,257.13  . OR + 26.2 UNITS

1 UNIT = $200

If you TAKE OUT the ONLY LOSING WEEKS ( 6,8,12 ) The overall record is 22-5 ....

This business is tough sledding , I'm ecstatically Lucky to have won $$$ 11 OUT OF 14 WEEKS this season

@DoubleUp4Life

 Dude I can’t stop laughing.... I’ve heard some funny names but what is a Sky Rat? Lmao

Seagull 

More of a hood thing for those annoying birds at the beach ...

They're  Rodents of the sky ....

( Don't mind me , just bitter I've hated the Seattle Seahawks since they wouldn't give Lynch the ball at the goal line...Plus they're tough to beat on Madden ) 

Thorpe  or anyone else ...

The MRS. wants to hedge with the GIANTS +400 for $150,  thoughts ???

She also has DC at same price for $200...

So we're in the for $620/ 1550 ..

Me personally I just want to let it ride ..Dont think the Giants beat the Browns ...While DC could surprise again this week 

WASHINGTON DC TO WIN NFC EAST +250

$420/1,050

Current odds are -305 at casino 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/eaglesstandings.html

This site figures out all the tiebreakers and such...this is where the below percents on the left come from.  Percent on the right is Seneca odds converted to percent. They add to more than 100% for the juice

WFT = 71%/75.3%

NYG = 17%/20%

PHI = 10%/14.3%

DAL = 1%/2%

If you hedge with the NYG, then I think you also have to hedge with PHI (and may as well throw 5 bucks on DAL), or else you can lose both bets if PHI wins out.  If WFT was favored this week, I'd tell you to bet their opponent ATS.  I guess you could bet PHI and NYG ATS/ML this week as a hedge.  Or maybe Alt Line them to +2.5 to give a little bit of a middle and still good + odds.

I would let it ride a week, I think WFT has the best chance to win out of the 3. What is the status of Smith and Gipson? Even if the NYG win this week and WFT loses, NYG has to go to Balt next week and WFT gets to host CAR, so you are in good shape there, you'd be more worried about Philly if this happened. 

Do you like Philly ATS this week? (not thinking about futures)

The more I think about it from a gambling perspective the more i'd do nothing.  There is nothing that can happen this week that would be catastrophic for your wager. And WFT could easily win and NYG and Phi lose which would almost lock it up 

But from a non-gambling perspective, I would never tell the Mrs not to hedge because if the NYG win the division not only do you lose the bet but you have to hear about it the rest of your life (which is worse than losing the bet)

You make a lot of sense as usual Brother DoubleUp 

Arizona is a pretty good option in Week 15, and take the Bears in Week 16 against the Jags but I really believe the Bills take care of business at Mile High especially now hearing Broncos starting cornerbacks Toliver/Dawson are out. Allen, Diggs, Beasley, Davis will shred those backup cornerbacks. I'm the only competitor out of the 7 remaining in our Survivor Pool that has Buffalo available, I might take a shot at them believing that at least 3/4 players out of 7 will be eliminated this Sunday. Thanks again for your recommendations Brother DoubleUp! 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Let it ride! 

Giants have Browns, Ravens, & The Boys! 

You add a limping Jones. WFT is the winner!

Hedging seems pointless this week..Like you mentioned if DC was a chalk I could hedge a little with their opponent....

Her fear is the tie break ..But the Giants could easily go 0-3 or 1-2 ...

DC should win at least 1 , right ??? 

We have plenty of futures  that are close to paying off , why hedge this one ??? Especially one at a short price like +250 ...

I'll show her your above posts...Thank you 

One more idea to consider:

You could round robin by 2s and 3 Phi, NYG and Cle on the ML

Let's say you put 15 on the 2s and 5 on the 3 for a total bet of 50

If you win all 3, your futures are in trouble but you win back 300

If you win 2, your futures are OK and you win back 55 or 125

If you win 0 or 1 , you win nothing but your futures are in great shape

You can adjust the bet size, or you can take the points with the dogs for less profit but a chance at a middle.

I agree Brother 

Thank you for posting 

I think the BILLS could beat KC ,but I dont trust the NFL enough to see it happening...

Thank you for the detailed possible wagers ..

We've decided to wait until next week ...

I'm talking myself into betting the Bills again..

John Brown coming back - I said before he was the key to the offense with his speed

2 CBs are out for Denver - Bills WR are 4 deep, who is going to cover all of them

Good weather - said before this favors the Bills

Bills defense looking good, should give Lock some problems

Less than a TD

Still a lot for the Bills to play for

A win locks up the playoffs for the BILLS ..

Guessing theyll be more focused on the Broncos with it being on National TV ...

Still concerned about that number ...Could see Buffalo up ny 2 scores most of the game and getting back doored late ....

My forecast numbers have BILLS -4.1 , Point spread Ratings have-5.9