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Week 16 Discussion - Only adults please

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

SF gave up 255 (Sea) / 170 (Chi) / 230 (Cle) rushing yds in 3 of 4 games before Cinci, yet Cinci only able to put up 68 yds in 36 attempts.  Den rush D is #1 so lots of pressure on AJ to produce.  Though Den lost last 2 games, they did have big leads (-12 yds 1H for Oak) so think they bounce back here + AJ on road against one of better HF-adv team, B2B West Coast trip too.

GL!


Just a couple things about the rush yards statement:

1. Total yards mean exactly NOTHING, especially rushing yards. Teams who lose many games, always give up a lot of total running yards because opponents wear them down in the second half and have less throws. The best 8 defenses in total rush yards all have 9+ wins, because they have a lead way more often and their opponents try to pass instead of running. But a team can have a good defense efficiency-wise but could give up tons of yards. It's all about efficiency though.

Winning teams have more total rushing yards in more than 70% of the games, but yards per carry is around 50%. It's just because winning teams run more often than losing teams.

2. SF gives up 4.6 YPC on the road but just 3.3 YPC at home. On 25 carries, this equals 32.5 total yards more. They also give up 11.8 PPG less at home than on the road. Like I said, it has been something special about their home games this year.


 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by bunny24:

Marvin Lewis and his Cincinnati Bungals on prime time...lol....A.J. Green is so freaking soft it's laughable...Denver let that game get away from them but c'mon...the Steelers are the only team in the AFC standing between New England and another trip to the Super bowl...this game is easy, don't overthink it....has everybody forgotten the Bengals on another MNF game recently?...Of course haven't... they were laying 10.5 (huge lumber) and lost outright to the Texans!....this is a miserable spot for a pea heart team like the Bungals...Forget about it!!!!


Last season everyone said the exactly same about the prime time matchup between CIN and DEN. Last season the Bengals were a worse team than this season and Andy Dalton just needed to manage that game.

Brock Osweiler averages 51% completions in the second half in his career and they scored ZERO points L2 games. Their offense couldn't manage to keep the lead against worse defenses than what the Bengals have.
 
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Posted: #28

Good stuff....

Lean and possible big play,  Cin/Denv under. 

 
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Posted: #29
Patriots@Jets

Right now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up.

Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy.

Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy.

It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith.

Lean: Jets +3
 
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Posted: #30
Bengals lead the league in yards per point differential, 5.83 and with Dalton in the line-up have one of the best I've ever seen this late in the season.

Broncos .44

Bengals lead the league in ave per pass diff, 1.86, Broncos .85

Bengals 3rd or 4th in QBPR 26.08, Broncos (-3.09) out-played by opps.


Broncos would be one of the worst bye teams ever if they get a bye.

Bengals easily the better all-around team, only question is AJ. We don't know enough about him to make a good judgement, I would still side with Bengals SU.
 
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Posted: #31
Starting to really like the Eagles this weekend.

Mainly due to Kirk Cousins being a completely different QB on the road.

Road Games

1,455 yds

6 TD9 Int




 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I get your point but why exactly is it a massive letdown spot? Rivers is proud and he is pissed off the bad season. The Chargers have something to prove and they are on revenge. It's still a divisional game on TNF. I guess Rivers wants to prove that the injuries on OL were a lot of the reasons of why the Chargers struggled this season.

GL to you



 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Just a couple things about the rush yards statement:

1. Total yards mean exactly NOTHING, especially rushing yards. Teams who lose many games, always give up a lot of total running yards because opponents wear them down in the second half and have less throws. The best 8 defenses in total rush yards all have 9+ wins, because they have a lead way more often and their opponents try to pass instead of running. But a team can have a good defense efficiency-wise but could give up tons of yards. It's all about efficiency though.

Winning teams have more total rushing yards in more than 70% of the games, but yards per carry is around 50%. It's just because winning teams run more often than losing teams.

2. SF gives up 4.6 YPC on the road but just 3.3 YPC at home. On 25 carries, this equals 32.5 total yards more. They also give up 11.8 PPG less at home than on the road. Like I said, it has been something special about their home games this year.



I can't remember where I picked up the following tidbit of information (podcast or forums) but a respected pro dropped a gem about the SF HFA. 

He said that the turf is very soft and spongy and makes for an extremely slow field relative to the rest of the league. If you think about it, makes perfect since given the lack of talent/team speed on the 49ers and the way they are able to stay in games/win at home. 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Patriots@Jets

Right now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up.

Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy.

Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy.

It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith.

Lean: Jets +3

Solid points. I think one thing that must be considered before going all in on NYJ is the poor play of the OL.

Cowboys exposed them a bit stuffing the run game and putting pressure on Fitzpatrick. The Jets averaged a mediocre 2.8 yards per carry vs DAL. This is after GB racked up over 44 rushing plays for 5.2 YPR and 2 rushing TDs against DAL the previous week, so they should have been softened up a bit. Damien Woody was on twitter saying it was well known within the analyst circles that the OL is a weakness of the Jets and the playcalling and Fitzpatrick quick trigger has really masked it in most cases. Offensively NE ranks 6th in Weighted Offensive DVOA and NYJ rank 14th. So the efficiency numbers skew towards NE. 

NE has a sneaky good defense, (Weighted DVOA rank 7th vs Jets rank 6th). Not to say this isn't a good spot for the NYJ but I think we have to consider these factors in our capping of the game. 

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Patriots@Jets

Right now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up.

Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy.

Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy.

It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith.

Lean: Jets +3

FYI,

I think you are perfect this year picking Bengals games.


I don't necessarily disagree with the pick Suuma. But I do disagree wit the bold and that is why I just can't back the Jets here.

Belichick always wants to beat the Jets. Always has. Ever since Mangini too the rivalry into the stratosphere with Spygate revelations, he's tried to beat them every time he plays them. It's never just another game to him.

And the proof is in the pudding: 8-2 SU in the last 10. While the Jets dominate the ATS record in those 10 at 7-3, the number here doesn't allow for a Jets cover, only a Jets push if the Pats prevail (obviously just eating the 1 or 2 pt margins if they happen).

I'd MUCH rather play the Jets on the road with a 9 pt line than take 3 here. 

But you lay your argument out well as always and it is compelling. 
 
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Posted: #36
I like the Jets here. 

I think Jets pass rush has gotten a little better 2nd half of season and will put Brady flat on his back all day like what the Broncos did to him in Denver. And also like you said they cover tight ends well. Jets fighting for their playoff lives and seeking revenge in a game they should have won in Foxboro. I think they will finish the job this time. Giving Brady -3 is enticing all the action on the Pats at such a low spread. 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #37
Jets have to be the play here...All New England has to do to lock up the top seed is win either here against New York or next week against Miami....how motivated are they in this spot?...As I just typed this I realized it's Hoodie and he never let's the foot off the gas...still...Jets for me
 
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Posted: #38

If KC does finish its Cinderella run with a ticket to the playoffs they could be a force to reckon with. After all, they’ve already played many of the teams they might meet in the playoffs. Just as DEN discovered, this is not the same team that lost to CIN and GB early in the season. This is a team with motivation that could make for a wild playoff ride.

 
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Posted: #39

It’s tough to see ATL pulling off a major upset. Neither ATL or TB matchups (on paper) should give Carolina fits. If the CAR are 16-0 heading into the postseason, they will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. After a first-round bye, their potential divisional-round matchups would include the winner of the NFC East (currently WAS) as well as the SEA (most likely) or the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs if they win (currently MIN). Of those potential contests, a rematch against the SEA obviously stands out. If anybody can match the power of CAR, it’s ARI. ARI is most balanced team in the NFL. Palmer has been spectacular at QB and the defense has been one of the top units in the league. It’d be interesting to see the point spread in this one. This would be the CAR toughest possible opponent in the conference championship, serving as a major roadblock between them and a SB trip. Other contenders include the CIN, PIT and DEN. CAR has performed better than all of these teams and would be a solid favorite against any of them in the Super Bowl. At the beginning of the season, nobody would have thought this, but the odds seem to be in favor of the CAR reaching 19-0.

 
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Posted: #40
" Possible " last game in Oakland ever. I like Oakland.
 
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Posted: #41
NYJ have looked like anis since their early season dominance, bar one or two big wins against awful teams. They really looked average against a terrible Dallas team. Especially defensively. Going way back to when they looked real good against NE @ Foxboro, I remember saying the Jets will beat the pats in the return fixture. I don't feel the same way now though, this jets team looks a lot different to that early jets team with an elite defense. Lots of sloppy coverage and weak tackling now. 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Patriots@Jets

Right now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up.

Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy.

Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy.

It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith.

Lean: Jets +3

Excellent insight. I watch the foxboro game and the Jets could of won if Ivory didn't get hurt early on and their linebacking core wasn't so beat up. Jets are getting healthy while the Pats are looking to use patch work while the heal up for the playoffs. Jets big ML this week for me. Pats don't need to win this game. 
 
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Posted: #43
Vikings is my personal favorite game of the week, looks like most of their defensive stars will be back and Bridgewater has been on fire the last 2 games. Now he gets the giants, who if it weren't for the Saints probably have the worst defense in the NFL. No Beckham , obviously that's a huge loss for the giants as now Reuben handle, Harris and Hakeem nicks will be their only wide receivers. Vikings -5.5 very large for me.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Patriots@JetsRight now I am looking at this game from a transition standpoint. When these teams first met at Foxboro, the Jets lost by 7 but they were almost an equal opponent despite not having Chris Ivory who got hurt pre-game. He had a few carries but wasn't the same. The Jets also lost Pryor, Skrine and RIchardson at one point. Pryor was a key loss because he was covering the TEs quite well. After Pryor went down, Gronkowski was 6/7 and before he was 5/9. They had a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Marshall dropped an easy TD which resulted into 20-16 instead of 23-16. Brandon LaFell also dropped like 4-5 passes (2/8) so that probably made up.Between then and now the Patriots lost Edelman, Dobson, Amendola and two OL Wendell and Jackson. Stork, McCourty and Chandler are highly Q when I get it right. The Jets are very healthy.Again, the Jets match up very well with the Pats. I highly doubt that Tom Brady will have a huge completion game with this receiving corps. The Pats look vulnerable when they can't get their TEs into a rhythm. The Jets are one of the best teams against TEs as shown in game 1 until Pryor went down. As we know, the NE defense isn't great and got problems when not facing a 3-5 win team. Jets offense will have a better game than in October with Ivory healthy.It sounds crazy, but the Pats don't really need this game as the Bengals and Broncos meet each other on Monday. Bill Belichick won't go all in here to desperately win. Last season in week 16 they went to New York in an equal situation and they won a 17-16 stinker against Geno Smith.Lean: Jets +3
FYI,I think you are perfect this year picking Bengals games.I don't necessarily disagree with the pick Suuma. But I do disagree wit the bold and that is why I just can't back the Jets here.Belichick always wants to beat the Jets. Always has. Ever since Mangini too the rivalry into the stratosphere with Spygate revelations, he's tried to beat them every time he plays them. It's never just another game to him. And the proof is in the pudding: 8-2 SU in the last 10. While the Jets dominate the ATS record in those 10 at 7-3, the number here doesn't allow for a Jets cover, only a Jets push if the Pats prevail (obviously just eating the 1 or 2 pt margins if they happen).I'd MUCH rather play the Jets on the road with a 9 pt line than take 3 here.  But you lay your argument out well as always and it is compelling.

I agree. Pats will play to win the game. Not saying the jets have no shot, obviously they do, but as competitive as Brady and belichik are, and as much as they hate, and honestly probably don't want to see the jets in the playoffs, I think saying they won't go max effort is a bit ludicrous. Now they may not play edelman, or freeny, but I'm almost sure the other questionable will be suited up. Jets o line looked very shaky to me vs Dallas, Dallas has a great D line, but so do the pats.
 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by greenhead:

" Possible " last game in Oakland ever. I like Oakland.

That was my feeling about St. Louis last week.   

Heff,  Just saw that Geno Smith missed practice today with an illness.  Not sure how serious that is. 

BEST BET.  Pittsburgh.     I'm such a fking HOMER!!! lol

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

Vikings is my personal favorite game of the week, looks like most of their defensive stars will be back and Bridgewater has been on fire the last 2 games. Now he gets the giants, who if it weren't for the Saints probably have the worst defense in the NFL. No Beckham , obviously that's a huge loss for the giants as now Reuben handle, Harris and Hakeem nicks will be their only wide receivers. Vikings -5.5 very large for me.

Like this play a lot this week


Hey Suuma, just think if you started this thread week 1 and we had all these discussions EVERY week...
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

Vikings is my personal favorite game of the week, looks like most of their defensive stars will be back and Bridgewater has been on fire the last 2 games. Now he gets the giants, who if it weren't for the Saints probably have the worst defense in the NFL. No Beckham , obviously that's a huge loss for the giants as now Reuben handle, Harris and Hakeem nicks will be their only wide receivers. Vikings -5.5 very large for me.

Careful here as Zimmer is already talking about sitting his banged up players if the stars align during Sundays Atlanta, Seattle and green bay games.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Goggles-Pisano:


Careful here as Zimmer is already talking about sitting his banged up players if the stars align during Sundays Atlanta, Seattle and green bay games.

To add to this, this is what I've found....very simplified version and I'm guessing there may be a couple of other possibilities in terms of actual seeding?

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/12/21/10634562/deciphering-the-minnesota-vikings-playoff-scenario

Excerpt:

Once again, the only scenario that keeps the Vikings out of the playoffs is as follows:

-Two Minnesota losses, AND
-Two Seattle losses, AND
-Two Atlanta wins

Which means that they get into the playoffs with:

-One Minnesota win, OR
-One Seattle win, OR
-One Atlanta loss

So, from what I gather, an Atlanta loss or Seattle win ensures a Minn Playoff spot (a technicality at this point).  Additionally, if GB loses to Zona, then Minn's game this weekend vs. the Giants means little as beating GB next week would lock up the division and the higher seed.  As Goggles first said above, probably an important scenario to keep an eye on.

 
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Posted: #49
Do you get how absurd the title is? And you wonder why people troll your threads. Try a little humility from time to time. There are some guys on here who can talk football without talking down to people.

Either bol with your plays and stop feeding the trolls.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Nice call on SD

I like CIN +3.5 myself. The story is on AJ McCaron not being ready...I dont know what in the world Osweiler is going to do against that CIN front 7, and with the CIN secondary getting healthier this could quickly turn into mismatch for CIN if all the Bengals do is run the ball and dink and dunk to Eifert. This might be a game where all the TDs are scored on D/ST, and with the public banging DEN ATS and ML this is a primo spot for Upset City (I know you dont believe in the stuff, but I think it holds value...sports books have staff on hand that know much more than we do about football and have had decades of experience honing their craft to "make money")

I also like MIN -5.5, KC -11,  NYJ +3 (we ned the public to push the line to +3.5), 
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