Posted:
#1
Hey everyone,
new to the forum and haven't really been posting too much but coming off of a good week, with the SNF game 2 team parlay of ATL ML vs PHI and the Over and a teaser for the MNF of Giants -1.5 and U 50.5. Both of the bets hit so I am going to go with my gut for this week.
NE @ BUF
This is my game of the week. Everyone is skeptical of NE covering 9 points against a much improved BUF team, but that is exactly what they are, improved. They are still not even close to being in the same wavelength as the PATS. I had a gut feeling of taking Pats -7 last week and I didn't, and it bit me in the A**. Now, obviously you need more than a "gut feeling" to make the wager, so heres why I like the pats. Brady is playing amazing and he looks flawless. Last week, he capitalized on EVERY single mistake the chargers made. The Patriots should have no problem scoring on a mediocre bills defense, which really has no playmakers other than Merriman and Mcgee. Pats will run the hurry up offense and the Bills will have no answer. You saw what OAK (of all teams) was able to do against that defense when they were hurrying at the end of the game, well imagine an ENTIRE game of hurry up offense vs the best offense in the league. Also, the Pats D proved last week that they could get stops when it mattered, which Brady capitalized off of. Sure, their defense isn't great, but they are not terrible either. Of course BUF will score, but this game will be a decisive win for the Pats. IMO, this week we will see the contenders from the pretenders, and this game will show just how big of contenders the pats really are
NE-41 BUF-28
Play: Pats -8.5 (2 Units to win 1.85 Units)
DET @ MIN
Detroit has been playing well, but they played a mediocre Bucs team and a depleted Chiefs team, nothing to go too crazy about. The public is ALL OVER detroit, and this is a classic overreaction. This is a huge trap game and vegas will most likely win big because everyone has the lions. Yes, the lions are an improved team, but they are still young and I believe they will have a difficult time vs this Vikings team this week. Remember, the Vikings came out smoking against both the Bucs and a very good chargers team. They showed that they can run the ball, and although people always hate on McNabb, the guy can still make plays. This week the Vikings will put together a COMPLETE game in front of the home crowd, and AP will take advantage of the lions inexperienced LB core and secondary. Yes, the detroit defensive line is one of the best in the league, but I still believe AP will be effective against them. Also, I think this week the pass rush will get to stafford. Stafford does well when he has time to sit back in the pocket, but jarred Allen and Brian Robinson (Longhorns Baby) are both quick off the edge and they will get to stafford more than once. The edge clearly goes to Min on D, because of their superior secondary (Winfield, Griffin), experienced LB core.
MIN 31 DET 23
Play: MIN ML (1 Unit)
0
if betting on my team wasn't a jinx for the more important win...I'd take it.
Nice write-ups and I agree with a lot you say, but in analyzing the Vikings game you are making a lot of assumptions. I think you need to simplify things and deal with what is known already about both teams.
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