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WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Nice work on the sheets but I believe the home dogs were 1-3 SU & AST last week & the Bengals turned into a road dog or the road favs would have been 4-1 SU & ATS...........

Last week the regression began, the first three weeks though it seemed like every one of them hit.

The bigger issue at work here is the number of people that are taking the Rams just because they feel like they're going to win on some notion that Arizona is due to come back to earth.  I'm not buying into this rationale.. the Rams offense might be the worst in the NFL, I find it hard to justify any wager on their side especially against a defense like Arizona's.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Last week the regression began, the first three weeks though it seemed like every one of them hit.

The bigger issue at work here is the number of people that are taking the Rams just because they feel like they're going to win on some notion that Arizona is due to come back to earth.  I'm not buying into this rationale.. the Rams offense might be the worst in the NFL, I find it hard to justify any wager on their side especially against a defense like Arizona's.

St. Louis actually outgains Arizona by 17 YPG so far into this young season.  Tannehill just lit up this defence for 400+ yards as well.

1 question I would like to know is in regards to Patrick Peterson.  Does anyone know if he plays the same side of the field the whole game?  Or does he just cover the opposition's best receiver?  If it's the former I like St. Louis even more as I like Amendola a lot here.

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Last week the regression began, the first three weeks though it seemed like every one of them hit.

The bigger issue at work here is the number of people that are taking the Rams just because they feel like they're going to win on some notion that Arizona is due to come back to earth.  I'm not buying into this rationale.. the Rams offense might be the worst in the NFL, I find it hard to justify any wager on their side especially against a defense like Arizona's.



With Arizona playing back to back home games & the last game being the toughest & coming from behind to win in over time, I think this game will be close, hence the reason I took the Rams +11.5 in a teaser.............I dont see a blowout from either side & it being a divisional match-up, it should be a close game.

Either way, gl & I hope the Rams dont lose by more than 11, thats if they lose..............
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:




With Arizona playing back to back home games & the last game being the toughest & coming from behind to win in over time, I think this game will be close, hence the reason I took the Rams +11.5 in a teaser.............I dont see a blowout from either side & it being a divisional match-up, it should be a close game.

Either way, gl & I hope the Rams dont lose by more than 11, thats if they lose..............

+11.5 seems like a solid price to take the Rams.  There's a chance they can cover that number without scoring a touchdown even.  17-6 doesn't seem like an improbable score with these offenses on the field.  Good luck PTB.
 
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Posted: #30
Thanks for the sheets silly!

But I'm having problems opening them. anyone else having that problem?
 
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Posted: #31
I know you haven't got any leans on the totals for Sunday Si1ly but if you had to bet 2 overs for Sunday, Which games would that be?? Just 2 of your early leans will do. 
 
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Posted: #32
^^^ haha hyperlinks don't work here anymore asshole
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Avenger_deux:

Thanks for the sheets silly!

But I'm having problems opening them. anyone else having that problem?

make sure your copying it properly...and i'm pretty sure you have to be signed into google account and sometimes there are too many people viewing the page...Si1ly has said he will mirror the link...

my previous comment was for a paid capper ad. 
 
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Posted: #34

Hey Si1ly,

What prompted me to write is the joker that trys to tout his "crew". He appears on several Forums...like anyone is going to fall for his BS. I see that they have already removed him. That's why I love these Cover Forums...they're so professional.

Thank you for all the effort you put into your Baseball and Football stats. They really help.

I'll continue lurking, pal.

 
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Posted: #35
I think that was part of the reason, they took out the hyperlink feature, or so they say...
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:


make sure your copying it properly...and i'm pretty sure you have to be signed into google account and sometimes there are too many people viewing the page...Si1ly has said he will mirror the link...

my previous comment was for a paid capper ad. 

Yes.  I will duplicate the files and post mirrored links as needed.  I would think at least one mirror - possibly several will be needed on Sundays considering this was already an issue on weekday nights in the MLB forums.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

I know you haven't got any leans on the totals for Sunday Si1ly but if you had to bet 2 overs for Sunday, Which games would that be?? Just 2 of your early leans will do. 

I've posted some leans on sides a few posts down on page one.  As for totals, I'll be looking in my sheets for offensive/defensive match-up issues.  One game that stands out early is Atlanta @ Washington.  Atlanta is #27 in run defense and Washington is #6 in run offense.  Conversely, Washington is #26 in pass defense and Atlanta is #5 in pass offense.  What this tells me is Washington will use their home crowd and their advantage in the running game to move the ball and put up some points.. but Atlanta will be able to keep pace and perhaps surpass pace with deep strikes through the air.  This has the makings of a back and forth game and the oddsmakers agree setting this as one of the highest totals on Sunday.  For good reason, I think it's the right side.  I also lean over in Pittsburgh.  I'm very down on the Steelers this year, particularly in the areas of offensive line, rushing offense and total defense.  Their defense carries with it the legacy of its name, but nothing more.  I'm expecting the Eagles to get into the endzone a few times on Sunday and the Steelers to follow along with their new vertical offense and the benefits of home field and extra rest.  In this case, the extra rest will help their offense and their o-line.  Their defense can't be helped.
 
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Posted: #38
Somebody asked in my other thread how I feel about teasers.  My feelings are mixed.  On the one hand, teasers give you as opportunity to move tight spreads through several key numbers.  Over the years, I've found teasers to be no more advantageous than just picking games ATS on their own.  They typically seem like a better bet than they really are.  I may play a teaser from time to time, but I think they're best used sparingly.  Of my two loses this season, one of them was a teaser where I tried to get the Bears to double digit dogs in Green Bay - they failed to cover the teaser by only a few points even though on paper it seemed I was getting an exceptional deal.
 
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Posted: #39
The more I look at this game, the fewer reasons I see to make a play.  Right now the most likely outcome for this game is 20-16 Arizona.  But going against the double revenge angle and home dog syndrome - it's hard to justify a play.  I like the under the most as both offenses are ranked in the bottom 5 while both defenses are pushing top 10.
 
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Posted: #40
Here's a direct link to the Thursday night game:

 
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Posted: #41
Sill or anyone.  How do we find who is reffing game before it starts? ANy site have this info? Thank you.
 
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Posted: #42
https://www.football-refs.com/nfl-referees-by-season/2012-crews/week-5/
 
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Posted: #43
dont like at all how Cards played that 2nd half last week,This line should be 2 points higher 
 
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Posted: #44
Sill I bow to you.  You have info no one else has or no one wants to share.
 
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Posted: #45
Can't wait for your mlb post season plays silly
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Lakerboy:

Can't wait for your mlb post season plays silly


I pick my spots in the post season.  Last year only made 12 wagers or something like that.  But I picked up 9 units.  The lines are usually extremely tight and sometimes you have to forgo statistics for the hotter team.  It's a tough sell for a stats guy like me to make that concession.  But there's money to be made in the playoffs.  I feast on postseason play.  My ROI is over 20% in all sports I believe.
 
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Posted: #47
No play on the Thursday night game.  Despite leans to the Cardinals and Under.. my gut tells me that the stats won't tell the whole story tonight.  Not enough solid evidence to make a play here on what looks like some pretty sharp lines by the oddsmakers.  I see quite a few more opportunities on Sunday.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:



I pick my spots in the post season.  Last year only made 12 wagers or something like that.  But I picked up 9 units.  The lines are usually extremely tight and sometimes you have to forgo statistics for the hotter team.  It's a tough sell for a stats guy like me to make that concession.  But there's money to be made in the playoffs.  I feast on postseason play.  My ROI is over 20% in all sports I believe.


20% is incredible.. you are truly one of a kind, i feel bad for your book lol.

Just checked mine and cardinals line jumped down to -1 -105 from -2 -115 ... not liking my cardinals play anymore
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Lakerboy:



20% is incredible.. you are truly one of a kind, i feel bad for your book lol.

Just checked mine and cardinals line jumped down to -1 -105 from -2 -115 ... not liking my cardinals play anymore

Contrary what you might think, I have a very good relationship with both locals I use.  Locals - who are always at risk of having very lopsided action due to a relatively small and narrow set of clients - appreciate taking sharp action at times because it keeps their books balanced.  The alternative to my action is hedging with another book.  Most responsible locals will not allow themselves to be taken by any single game if the action is lopsided enough.  Sportsbooks need to have players on both side to survive.
 
 
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Posted: #50

People are playing the Rams tonight just because they think it's a 'sharp' play or because Arizona is due to 'come back to earth'.  Neither of these are sound reasons to make a bet.  Handicap the match-up.  How many offensive touchdowns do the Rams have this season?

 

Not disagreeing with you bro, but you have to look at everything when betting on football. Letdowns, lookaheads, shorts weeks etc.....it all adds up. Its never as easy as simply looking at stat sheets.

 

bol

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