week 7 vegas line vs my ratings, stats, systems, random info and more inside !!!

SD @ BUF -1

San Diego 13-4 ATS in last 17 away vs teams with more wins and less losses, however, 0-2 su/ats as pk/dog. They are 0-1 this season as road dog with the total in the 40's (@Denver) and 0-1 last year (@Jax). They are also 0-3 in last 3 away not favored by 7+ with the total in the 40's.

Buffalo 12-1 ATS and 10-2 SU as -3/+3 at home, total in the 40's. They are 9-1 ats at home with the total in the 40's not a huge dog of 15+ pts.They are also 7-1 su and 5-2-1 ats home vs teams with less wins and more losses.

In weeks 6-9, teams after their first loss are 20-40 ats. and if with at least 7 days of rest, they are 1-13-1 ATS.

3-3 teams after 1 win are 14-3 ATS after 1 favorite win. (10-0 last 10)



NO @ CAR -3

New Orleans 4-1 ATS last 5 vs teams with more wins and less losses but 1-9 straight up away and already lost once in this spot this season. They are also 0-4 su and 1-3 ats last 4 as roiad pk/dog with total in the 40's.

4-2 teams are 9-0 su at home vs 3-3 teams but the line is usually higher than -3 (only once the team was not favored by more than 3).



TEN -9 @ OAK

Unbeaten teams from week 7 to end of regular season are 10-0 su and 9-1 ats off bye in last 10 years.

Tennessee is 6-0 su and ats in last 6 as road fave with the total in 30's (2-0 this season). They are also 3-0 su/ats away vs less wins, more losses.

KC is 0-7 SU and ATS home, total in the 30's, 0-3 as dog.


MIN @ CHI -3


Minnesota is 0-2 ATS this season as road dog total <40

Chicago is 0-6 ATS as home favorite total in 30's.

in weeks 1 to 8, home teams with the line 2/-3.5, at .500 vs same record teams are 0-17-1 ats.

PIT -9.5 @ CIN


Pittsburgh is 3-5 su and 2-6 ATS in last 8 as road fave total in the 30's. 7-16-2 ats total 37 or less, including 1-3 su and 0-4 ats fav more than 7.
They are also 1-2 ATS this season vs teams with less wins, more losses.

4 wins teams @ 0 wins teams are 1-12-1 ats last 14 and 0-9-1 last 10.

4/5 wins teams in first 10 weeks of the season are 1-17-1 ats vs winless teams if not favored by 14+. (0-15-1 ats away)



BAL @ MIA -3


Baltimore is 2-9 su and ats in last 11 away vs same record.

Miami is 9-1 su but none since 2006.

Baltimore is 0-7 su and 1-7 ats away with total<40.



SF @ NYG -10.5

San Francisco is 1-4 su and ats vs less losses and more wins.

Giants are 3-0 in the opposite direction as big faves.

Since last season, the Giants are 3-0 as home faves, total>41



DET @ HOU -9.5


Detroit is 0-7 su and 1-6 ats since last season as road dog, total 44+
Detroit is 1-16 SU away vs less losses, more wins.

Houston is 3-0 su, 2-1 ats as home fave, total 44+
Houston is 2-0 su last two years as home fave vs worst record.

NYJ -3 @ OAK

Oakland is 0-4 su ats as home dog with total in low/mid 40's



IND -1 @ GB

The Colts are 8-0 su and 6-1-1 ats on the road vs same # of wins but 0-3 as pk/small favorite vs teams with less losses.

Green Bay is 0-2 su and ats this season at home vs same # of wins.

home dogs after a road dog win against teams after home favorite win are 64-25-3 ats.


DEN @ NWE -3

Denver is 0-7 su and ats on the road with total >45
New England is 7-0 (last year) su at home, total>45

Denver is 0-3 su and ats on the road vs less wins and 1-4 su/2-3 ats away vs same # of losses.

New England at home 5-0 su and 4-0-1 ats vs same # of losses.


CLE @ WAS -9

Cleveland is 1-13 su away vs better record.

Washington is 0-5 su and ats at home vs worst record including outright losses as -13 and -11 favorites.



SEA @ TB -10.5


Seattle is 0-5 su and 1-4 ats (1-9 su and 2-8 ats) away with total <40

Tampa is 7-2 su and ats as favorites at gome, total<40

Seattle is 0-4 su and 0-2 su/ats since last year away vs better record.

TB is 8-1 su and 4-2-2 ats home vs worst record.



DAL -7 @ STL


Dallas is 0-4 ats away vs worst record

STL is 0-6 su and ATS home vs better record.

Road teams with line +6/-14.5 with no bye are 12-31-3 ats after a road overtime game.

chicago is in a 0-5 ats group and they are the 2nd most public team in the group. also in another 3-11 ats group. the line is definately fishy as they at least played well in some of their games and minnesota did not play well in one single game ytd.

giants in one good and one bad group of teams with this line. they dropped 3 spots to #5 in my rankings which is not a big change compared to some other widely avaiable rankings out there.

tennessee with #1 ratings differential so far for a road team. the two closest won and covered the spread.

tampa is expected to win but they are in one 0-10 ats group and one 1-9 ats group of teams as a double digit fave.

neither cleveland or washington in a group of big signiff.

miami in very good 11-1 su and 9-1-1 ats group as well as one small but effective 5-1 su and 4-1-1 ats group as long as favored by 3.5 or less.

houston in a 9-0 su and 7-2 ats group, and another 9-1 su group.

pit/dal in the same 3-3 su and ats group. 3-3 su is not very good for 6 teams that were favored by 9+

carolina in the same 5-1 su and 4-1-1 ats group as miami, and another small 5-2 su/ats group

buffalo in a group that is perfect ytd, 8-0 su and ats and another one that is 9-0 su and 7-1-1 ats as long as they are not underdgs

same group for new england but they are also in a 3-3 su, 0-5-1 ats group. both buffalo and new england could win by 1-3 pts.

the colts in a 2-4 ats group while being the biggest public play of them all. two covers in that group were indy at min (undeserved) and ten at baltimore (undeserved).

the jets in a small but very ineffective group of road favorites that went 0-3 su and ats and new york is the most public team of them all, by far. the group includes chicago at atlanta, philly at chicago and jaxonville at tennessee.

TEN -9 @ OAK

Unbeaten teams from week 7 to end of regular season are 10-0 su and 9-1 ats off bye in last 10 years.

Tennessee is 6-0 su and ats in last 6 as road fave with the total in 30's (2-0 this season). They are also 3-0 su/ats away vs less wins, more losses.

KC is 0-7 SU and ATS home, total in the 30's, 0-3 as dog.


It should read Tenn @K.C   ... Great Info by the way..

Play: Minnesota +3

Minnesota has won 3 of their last 4, outgaining everyone but New Orleans.They did not play well, but the defense and the special units did the job for them. Chicago has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. It is going to be hard for Chicago to refocus after that game in Atlanta last week. They were not supposed to win that game and when it looked like they won, M.Ryan made a miraculous throw and the rest is history.

A.Peterson seems to be back after rushing for 111 yards last week. In two games last season the Vikings outrushed the Bears 447-115. A.Peterson had 224 yards in game #1 and I expect a big effort from him tomorrow. Minnesota defense is just as good as Chicago defense if not better. Chicago defense got somewhat exposed last week by a rookie QB.

Systems of the week:

In weeks 1 to 8, home teams with the line 2/-3.5, at .500 vs same record teams are 0-17-1 ats. In weeks 1-14, home favorites after a road favorite loss are 19-40-1 ats against a team off home favorite win.



Play: Buffalo -1

There are three major reasons why I like this play.

First, it is the second East Coast game for SD in only three weeks and third road game in 4 weeks. And after playing an emotional, prime time game against New England last week, I wonder if they will be able to match Buffalo on energy level.

The second reason is bye for Buffalo. After getting embarassed by Arizona in the second of their back to back road games, the Bills are now well rested, healthier, and poised to prove that they are not 4-1 for nothing.

The third reason is the Buffalo defense. San Diego depends a lot on their offense this season, especially on P.Rivers and his passing game. Well, that's exactly the strength of this Buffalo defense.


Play: Cincinnati +10 *b 0.5*

I've said last week what happens when the public is very big on a over in a game that is not supposed to be close. This game reminds me a lot of last week's MNF game between Cleveland and NY Giants. The Steelers are getting healthier, Ben always plays well in Ohio, the Bengals are winless and so on. We will hear that all day long on every TV station. All that is true, but Cincinnati is a winless team that had a chance to win 5 of 6 games with a few breaks here and there. And now that the Rams and the Texans got their first wins, I'm sure the Bengals don't wont to go to their bye week 0-7. The effort will be there for sure, and with Pittsburgh playing the defending SuperBowl Champs last week, I can smell an upset here.


Not sure if Pittsburgh's rushing offense will produce, but the Bengals have a very solid passing defense that can make some problems for B.R. They are ranked #4 in passing yards allowed, just behind Baltimore, Carolina and Pittsburgh, which is not bad for a winless team.

R.Fitzpatrick wan't bad last week and he should get better in his second straight start, this time at home.


Systems of the week:

4 wins teams @ 0 wins teams are 1-12-1 ats last 14 and 0-9-1 last 10.

4/5 wins teams in first 10 weeks of the season are 1-17-1 ats vs winless teams if not favored by 14+. (0-15-1 ats away)



Play: Carolina -3

New Orleans is finally on the road after three straight home games, and for a team that is 0-2 on the road, this is not the best place to start a road trip. Carolina is 3-0 at home this season and in last two games they outscored the opponents 58-9. Despite playing good defense recently, this New Orleans team is stil all about offense, and this Carolina team has a defense that can stop them.

New Orleans has an amazing passing offense but Carolina is #2 against the pass, and if they can't stop them at home, than who can ?

This is a very important game for Carolina. First, it is a big revenge against NO after a big home loss to this Saints team last season, in a game without Delhomme. And second, it is a statement game for them after losing big to Tampa last week.


Play: Saint Louis +7


Dallas is really struggling right now and even with Romo playing, they are probably going to start asking themselves if they are as good as advertised, if STL gets a lead or a few defensive stops early on. They are not doing a very good job on defense and they lost in overtime last week on a special units play. They have failed to cover last three games and they are playing the Rams in the worst possible time.

The Rams showed a lot of character last week, comming off bye, playing good defense and timely offense in their road dog win in Washington. The home dog is always dangerous after a road dog win, and STL is always dangerous at home, even when not talented like this season.

Road teams with line +6/-14.5 with no bye are 12-31-3 ats after a road overtime game.

Home dogs after a road dog win of 6-pts are 60-27-4 ATS


Play: Green Bay +1.5

The Colts are 3-2 but they could have easily been 1-4. The Packers are 3-3 but could have been 4-2. With these two you just never know what team is gonna show up.

Both teams have a good offense and a bad defense. A.Rodgers actually has a better passer rating than P.Manning so far this season and that's kinda surprising. What is very important in this matchup is the rushing offense, and Green Bay is finally showing some signs of it lately, and that could be the key at home against this Colts defense.

The Colts have been ont the road twice this season and they won both games in dramatic fashion. They were trailing Minnesota by 15 and Houston by 17 in the third quarter.

The Packers lost two straight at home but responded well on the road last week and they have a chance to snap their two game home losing streak tomorrow.

road favorites of 3.5 or less, not after bye, after a home favorite win are 8-42-1 ats against a tema that won on the road in the previous game with a line >-3.


Play: Oakland +3

This is the fishiest line on the board this week. But when you look at the stats you'll quickly realize that it is not as fishy as it looks. The Jets are all about offense but their offense hasn't been doing all that well. They've taken advantage of some turnovers, and Favre has been Favre, throwing long balls for TD's and for Int's. But stat wise, their passing offesne is not that good, and Oakland actually has a really solid young pass defense that can challenge the Jets passing offense.

The Jets have been good against the run, but after looking at their opponents so far this season, you'll see that they faced Arizona (passing team), cincinnati (passing team), NE (passing team), Miami and SD (somewhat balanced offense). They have yet to face a rush oriented offense like Oakland and if Oakland gets close to their season average in rushing yards, they are in bussiness.

They Jets are 0-2 su and ats in their worst two defensive rushing games and thats not even close to what Oakland can do on the ground. Oakland has already allowed 262 passing yards to Buffalo and almost won that game as a huge road underdog. The Jets had 267 passing yards @ San Diego and lost big.

Play: Kansas City +9


I really love good defensive teams like Tennessee and I have to admit that I did not expect to see this team doing so well so early in the season. They are 5-0 straight up and against the spread and that tells me that the linemaker did not expect Tennessee to be this good either. And since my approach is very close to what the linemakers are doing, no wonder why Tennessee is a big surprise to me. However, with this line, the linemaker is taxing all those who missed the Titans 5-0 ATS run before their bye week. Something similar to what they are doing with Tampa Bay line this week. Tennessee would beat KC by double digits at home, but on the road, with both teams off bye, and a big target sign on them now that they are the only remaining unbeaten team, it is not going to be easy.

They are good defensively, very good actually, and they do not make many mistakes. Their offense is opportunistic, scoring off of their opponents' mistakes. They do not have an offense that will drive down the field on every drive.

KC has struggled on offense all season long, except their home dog game vs Denver that they won. I'm sure that they are sick and tired of listening to all the NFL and local media how bad they are and how they have no chance against the Titans.

The Titans have a huge game vs the Colts next week. Last year they were 9 pts favorites before playing the Colts and they beat the Jets 10-6, without covering the spread. They also failed to cover the spread against Atlanta as 9 pts favorites after their bye week.

Systems of the week: Regular season home dogs of 6 points or more,playing under .500 are 21-2-1 ats off bye. When the opponent is off bye as well, they have less chance of winning, but stil same % of ats covers.

-5.5 to -12.5 road favorites unbeaten straight up and against the spread, are 1-16 ats if they are not going to be double digit favorites against a team that they didnt beat by more than 10 next week. It is quite obvious that they will not be favored by double digits against the Colts next week. Tennesse beat them by 9 last time up.