Posted:
#26
Usually agree somewhat with your sucker bets man, but I have to disagree with this one. Last week there were several teams that played each other a second time.
Miami Over first time, Miami Over second time
Minny Over first time, Minny Over second time
Oakland Over first time, Oakland Under second time.
They made it really easy last week for these.
First meeting Cincy covered, and they're coming off a bye week, right after destroyed Chicago right before, yet they are still a 3 point home dog. Seems like the sucker bet would be to take Cincy, not Baltimore.
Baltimore is definitely one of my plays this week. As always though, thanks for your insight.
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"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET. Last week was another outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 4-4 ATS. This week Joe Public seems to be siding heavily with the Ravens as they opened up as a dog and are now favored by a FG as they travel to Cincinnati. The last time these two teams met was not long ago (Week 5) as Cedric Benson became the first rusher in 40 games to run for over 100 yards vs. the Ravens. Perhaps as impressive was the Bengals victory two weeks ago (they had a bye last week) as they hosted another team with a strong defense, the Bears. In that game Carson Palmer threw for 5 TD's and Cedric Benson rushed for 189 yards. Cincinnati is one of the league's most balanced offense and can get to the top of their divsion with a victory on Sunday. These teams both are matched-up against one of the league toughest schedules this season. Against "Top 10" teams, the Ravens are just 1-3. In Carson Palmers' 10 career starts against the Ravens, he is 7-3 ATS. Where these two differs most is not on either side of the ball, but on special teams, specically punt returns. the Bengals are one of the best averaging over 13 yards ppr vs. the Ravens under 5 yards ppr. As strong of a defense the Ravens are know for, the Bengals have more sacks, intereceptions, fumble recoveries, and give up less 1st down per game. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite, and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bengals. Cincinnati will also bring a stout rushing defense into this week as opponents are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. There you have it, Benglas +3 as the host the always popular Ravens. Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
"For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET" 
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