WEEK 9's SUCKER BET BROUGHT TO YOU BY TOOTSIE POP

"A pleasant good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was the 6th outright winner for the SUCKER BET this season as the Browns prevailed, bringing our season tally to 6-2 ATS.  This week's SUCKER BET is no surprise to those who have followed this post for years and/or for those who comprehensively grasp the concept of the SUCKER BET.  For the 3rd time this season (Week's 6 & 8) I'm backing the Browns +4 at home vs. the Ravens.  The Ravens are 5-2 SU this season, but 2-5 ATS (0-3 ATS L3).  Even after the win against the Chargers last week, Cleveland is getting no love this week.  I'm not saying they deserve a ton of support.  I'm actually more discounting the Ravens then supporting the Browns.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 1-4 ATS against divisional opponents.  They are also 4-10 ATS against teams with a losing record.  Conversely the Browns are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Revenging a loss against an opponent, the Browns are 9-4 ATS L13.  There is a handful of more supportive trends but this post is already getting too trend heavy.  The Ravens are trying to figure out how to remain an above average defense without Ray Lewis.  They are coming off a BYE and have some nicked up players thankful for the extra rest.  The Browns defense is also getting back a couple much needed players in Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor.  This game is going to come down to whichever RB performs better.  Both are talented and both can handle the pressure.  It's tough to give the edge to either one, but I like siding with the dog in a "pitchers duel".  That being said, the Ravens have beat the Browns the last 9 times they've played.  I see a game-winning FG breaking up a 10-10 score at the end of regulation.  There you have it, Browns +4.  Good luck everyone this week and see you next week for Week 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!" 

Post Script: To those effected by Hurricane Sandy (like me, we still have no power at our home)...hang it there.  Thanks to those helping anyway you can!

agreed! the ravens are banged up and are not the same defense that every thinks they are

BOL

i was shocked when i saw 92% of the public on the ravens! good call here

where have you been demapples? Havent seen you post in awhile! 

Best of Luck 

great stuff apples. bol

Ravens find a way to win, kick late game winning FG, agreed. Good luck!

With that line +4, yes I agree...

BOL demapples

Hope you and you're family are fine and you get power on soon.

Thanks Canada, the power just came back on and what a great feeling after 4 days without.

ravens havent covered in 5 straight weeks that to me is a better trend..... (play on ravens)!!!!!!!!

Fan of the sucker bets, but, i think ya got this one wrong.

Losing Ray aint gonna hurt that much xcept the rah rah, but Webb,that hurts and Ngati is not healthy.On the other hand Suggs is coming around.

Hey Biscuiteater1. If you're a fan of the sucker bet then I recommend you believe what Demapples is telling us. He is very good at what he does and has been right more often than wrong with a 6-2 record this year. I sometimes question his anyalisis as well but let's face it....nobody is going to be right 100% of the time. I make a point of reading his thread every week.... Browns it is....keep up the great work Demapples!   

 

totally agree 

My play on this game is the Over.I just think that with the week off and the way the schedule is this is a big game for the Ravens and Harbaugh will have them ready