week II playoffs

YES!!

Not surprised at all as recency bias has been and imho will remain as a key driver in unbalanced lines with the squares taking the worst of it as usual.

OUTSTANDING!!

Thx professor!! miss your SDQL magic.

Hey buddy, Funny I have one that's 22-5

I took the over when it dropped to 43.5, but I feel a little queasy about it remembering all those anemic showings in past playoffs. Under Harbaugh in the Lamar era, Baltimore are 1-4 in the playoffs, and all unders. Their only appearance after a bye during that time was in 2019, when they lost at home to Tennessee 12-28. The only other home game was in 2018, when they lost to the Chargers 17-23.

No doubt that some of these plays are counterintuitive...this being chief among them.....nice you got 43.5 instead of 46!!....

@Indigo999

 GL Indi.  Like it!

These were the betting public percentages from last season on the KOC contest....you can see that they went 0-5 ATS!  Meanwhile the public was right on four of five of the total.  Over the course of the season the public will be wrong more than they are right.

61% Cleveland -

64% Pittsburgh +

52% Kansas City -

54% Philly -

54% Lions -

54% Cowboys -

This week we have.......

  a)  Packers 60%

  b)  Texans 65%

  c)  Lions 55%

  d)  Bills 62%

I've seen a couple of references to home favorites under 10 points being 10-25 ATS the last 20 years....that is not correct.

Since 2002....home favorites of less than 10 points

Wildcard round.......27-39 ATS, 40.9%

Divisional round......28-41 ATS, 40.6%

conference finals.....23-19 ATS, 54.8%

Away dogs with the average net yards per pass advantage, as long as they have played one or zero playoff games....50-24-3 ATS,........these teams have been 26-8 ATS if the line is <4, 21-16 straight up......Chiefs

Average line/total +4.7/44.8........average score......22.5-24.6

playoffs = 1 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and C and opp:playoffs=0 and AD

Here's an interesting one.....home favorites with the average net yards per pass  advantage as long as their opponent has played either one or zero playoff games.

34-13 ATS on Saturday......Ravens, 49ers

18-28 ATS on Sunday........VERSUS Lions

playoffs = 1 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA) - oA(YPPA-o:YPPA) > 0 and C and HF and day and opp:playoffs=0

Plays........Adding:

6)  49ers -9'

7)  Ravens -9'

8)  Chiefs +2'

______________________

5) Bucs +6

4) Bucs OVER 48'

3) Packers UNDER 50

2) Ravens OVER 46

1) Chiefs OVER 46

Good fortune everyone....

Good Luck Indigo

Great Work!

Thank you...............................gl

Plays.......

6)  49ers -9'..........L

7)  Ravens -9'.......W

8)  Chiefs +2'

5) Bucs +6

4) Bucs OVER 48'

3) Packers UNDER 50.......W

2) Ravens OVER 46.........W....hopefully some of you waited and either got a win or a tie in this wager...as this total went back and forth between 43.5 and 44 towards the end of the week.

1) Chiefs OVER 46

Saturday games, the best looking team was the Packers and they are going home....they are gonna be excellent for years to come, as will the Lions.

Texans with over 60% of the public on them could not get it done....those >60% teams are now 0-2 against the spread after Cleveland lost last week.  63% of the public are on the Bills tomorrow.

@Indigo999

 How is a 34-10 final score giving you a win on over 46

Thanks for the heads up....my bet was a loser....I mentioned that I hoped others might have won on that same bet.

Plays.......

6)  49ers -9'..........L

7)  Ravens -9'.......W

8)  Chiefs +2'

5) Bucs +6

4) Bucs OVER 48'

3) Packers UNDER 50.......W

2) Ravens OVER 46.........L....hopefully some of you waited and either got a win or a tie in this wager...as this total went back and forth between 43.5 and 44 towards the end of the week.

1) Chiefs OVER 46

Public consensus now 2-6 on side plays in the playoffs, and 6-2 on the totals......we are using KOC data.

Public is on the Lions and the very heavy on the Bills (62%).

As usual the public likes both OVERs in Sunday's action....I'd estimate public consensus is on OVERs 80% of the time in college ad pro football.

Yes… I have learned to play some unders in my time… it has been a painful lesson… good luck today sir… I got 43.5… a small blessing for all those overs of Christmas past.    

Thanks Darlin'.....I'll have to go line shopping with you next time.

Away dogs that rush for an average of less than 100 yards/game went 40-24 ATS this season.  We have one today in the Bucs.

Teams that rush for less than 100 yards/game in the second or third round of the conference playoffs playing a team that has also played at least one playoff game have gone 6-1 ATS (+11.14) and 6-1 straight up (+7.43).....ON Bucs

playoffs = 1 and AD and tA(RY) < 100 and p:playoffs = 1 and op:playoffs = 1

THX.......................................gl

Bucs just quite couldn't  get it done for us.

Plays.......

6)  49ers -9'..........L

7)  Ravens -9'.......W

8)  Chiefs +2'

5) Bucs +6.....................L

4) Bucs OVER 48'............W

3) Packers UNDER 50.......W

2) Ravens OVER 46.........L....hopefully some of you waited and either got a win or a tie in this wager...as this total went back and forth between 43.5 and 44 towards the end of the week.

1) Chiefs OVER 46

Opening line in the NFC Championship game....49ers -7, 50'

Home conference favorites with the superior last-8-games-played record playing a team that is playing their third playoff game have gone 4-9 ATS, 6-7 straight up....average line/total -5.1/45.5, average score.....21.6-21.9............49ers have gone 6-2 and the Lions have gone 5-3........VERSUS 49ers

tS(W, N=8) > oS(W, N=8) and playoffs = 1 and HF and op:playoffs = 1 and opp:playoffs = 1

4-9.  Hmmm.   ….   I’m thinking niners play well… as I do not think they played very well Saturday … Green Bay looked good to me… so I would think niners get out to a much better start next week.      Will wait for more data… appreciate your efforts.  

6)  49ers -9'..........L

7)  Ravens -9'.......W

8)  Chiefs +2'.......W

5) Bucs +6...........L

4) Bucs OVER 48'...W

3) Packers UNDER 50.......W

2) Ravens OVER 46.........L....hopefully some of you waited and either got a win or a tie in this wager...as this total went back and forth between 43.5 and 44 towards the end of the week.

1) Chiefs OVER 46.......W

5-3 for the week, 13-5 for the playoffs.