8-2 first week.
Using a database that goes back to 2002.
In the divisional round, games have tended to go over, except if a road team is off an away win. I have an OVER angle that is 22-7 OVER since 2002 that covers the three games listed below.
1) **Lions/Bucs OVER 48.5
2) **Bills/Chiefs OVER 46
3) **Ravens/Texans OVER 46
Good fortune....
.
angle 2......A Sunday divisional round away dog off a home win that allowed less than 15 points their previous game and won by greater than 10 points.....10-3 ATS.....Chiefs, Bucs
Away dogs in the same situation, but are playing on Saturday have only gone 4-5 ATS, 7-2 o/u....Texans
Plays:
Adding......
4) **Bucs +6
3) **Chiefs/Bills OVER 46
2) **Bucs/Lions OVER 48'
1) **Texans/Ravens OVER 46
angle 3.....an away playoff dog that won their previous game on the road in a playoff game scoring >30 points......9-6 ATS, 3-12 o/u
p:AW and AD and p:playoffs = 1 and playoffs = 1 and day and p:points>30
Adding.....
5) **Packers/49ers UNDER 50
1) **Texans/Ravens OVER 48
2) **Bucs/Lions OVER 48'
3) **Chiefs/Bills OVER 46
4) **Bucs +6
Did you test for the total? Whatever your query was, I would add something like "and total > 44.2" because all of the totals are higher than this year's average total score.
Good luck.
I have a query for KC-BUF with the O/U at 11-3-0 and the O/U margin is a very appealing 8+.
However, two things make me leery:
Mahomes and Allen are hotshot QBs that are very popular. The bookmakers know the bettors prefer to bet Over in general, and with these two Fantasy Football favorites that goes double. I am afraid the total might be a bit higher than the stats would suggest is justifiable. I cannot make my own lines or totals; this just seems reasonable to me.
Looking at Massey's ratings, BUF's OFF and DEF are both rated strong at #5. That doesn't suggest anything for the total. Massey has KC's OFF at #13 and their DEF at #1; that definitely suggests an Under. Versus the totals this season KC is 5-13-0 and BUF is 7-11-0.
Maybe all of these stats will tempt fundamentalists to take the Under and we should just go with the queries. Perhaps I'll just place that Under wager simply because the season is rapidly drawing to a close. I haven't done anything yet.
John Harbaugh 1-3 ATS, 0-4 o/u at home, 11-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs.
Since Lamar Jackson has been quarterback of the Ravens they've been 27-32 ATS at home, 34-16 ATS on the road. I don't know what games he would have been out because of injury.
Andy Reid has been 118-79-3 ATS, 59.9% on the road in his career, 6-4-1 ATS on the road in the playoffs.
That S/B "Over."
angle 4........A home favorite in the divisional round that averages 20 yards more rushing yards per game than their present opponent.....2-5 ATS (-4.86), 3-4 straight up (0.86), 5-2 o/u (+2.79)........VERSUS Lions, Bills
average line/total, average score.....-5.7/45.2.....24.4-23.6
This moves to 1-5 ATS, 2-4 straight up if they average 30 yards more per game rushing....VERSUS Lions
angle 5.....a home divisional round favorite that has the net (offense minus defense) average yards per pass advantage throughout the season.
Home favorite with the bye on Saturday.....playing a team off an away win....9-4 ATS (+5.23), 13-0 straight up (+13.08), 5-8 o/u (-3.92)
Average line/total -7.8/44.5........average score 26.8-13.8......49ers
Home favorite with a bye on Saturday....playing a team off a home win......Ravens.....10-3 ATS, (+4.96), 11-2 straight up (+13.86), 10-3 o/u (+8.12)
Average line/total -8.7/48......average score.....34.8-21.2
Yards per pass disadvantage on Sunday without bye...... Bills
3-3 ATS (+4.08), 3-3 straight up, 5-1 o/u (+9.08)
Average line/total.....-2.9/47.2.......average score 31.7-24.7
Query text for average yards per pass advantage
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0
angle 6.....a playoff home favorite in the first or second round that missed the playoffs last season.....19-37 ATS, 7-21 ATS on Sunday....these teams are 7-16 ATS off a home win, 4-10 ATS on Sunday......VERSUS Lions
HF and playoffs = 1 and opp:playoffs=0 and p:playoffs and tpS(playoffs)=0 and day
angle 7....calculated lines.....we give 2.5 points for home field, we take the average scoring differential between the two teams to get a line.
Using statfox's statistics.
Houston 23.4-20.4 = +3/game................Baltimore 28.4-16.5= +11.9/game.....differential is 11.9-3=8.9....we add 2.5 points to Baltimore for home field....
Calculated line is Texans +11.4
Packers 23.9-21.2=2.7/game......49ers....28.9-17.2=12.7/game....differential is 10 (12.7-2.7)
Calculated line Packers +12.5
Bucs 21.1-18.6=2.5/game............Lions 26.9-23.2=3.7/game.....differential is 1.2
Calculated line is Bucs +3.7
Chiefs 22.1-16.7=5.4/game........Bills 26.8-18.2=8.6/game......differential 3.2
Calculated line is Chiefs +5.7
How has these teams done when the away dogs have the advantage as in the case of the Bucs?....they're getting 6 and the calculated line is 3.7.....is that good, bad or ugly for those teams?
Query text for this for those teams that are playing their second playoff game.
AD and playoffs = 1 and line>oA(margin)+2.5-tA(margin) and p:playoffs=1 and day and pp:playoffs=0
Those teams have gone 31-15-1 ATS, 18-5 ATS on Sunday......ON Bucs
What about teams that have the calculated disadvantage?....the Packers, Texans and the Chiefs?
Those teams playing a second playoff game have gone 21-29 ATS, 6-12 on Saturday.....VERSUS Packers, Texans
Minor support for KC-BUF Over (currently 45.5 at Heritage):
PO = 1 and p:PO = 1 and HF and p:WHF and 9.5 < p:margin < 18.5
O/U: 13-5-0 (1.75, 72.2%)
I am not crazy about that slim margin, but it does support your case. I believe both QBs exceeded their team totals in cold weather last week, so that is a plus.
This week, in the NFL playoffs we have two publicly backed underdogs....
WARNING!! DANGER, WILL ROBINSON!!! DANGER!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG0ochx16Dg&ab_channel=TheWatchLawyer
Both Houston and Green Bay have over 60% of the public on them....of course it is your money and your life if you decide to play them....however experience, sometimes very unpleasant, has shown that this over the long-term will cause pain. Sure you could mow your grass over the bee's nest and nothing will happen or decide to drive 10 seconds with your eyes closed and nothing bad will happen...but you are asking for trouble.
Now I don't wish to do the endless debate over whether it is actually the amount of money bet, rather than the percentage of people on one side, that is most important, or to further debate whether covers is accurate (it is a free contest so why would they be bothered fabricating anything?), or anything else about the nuances of this idea.
To satisfy my curiosity, I went back into the covers consensus archive to see how the four parameters did this season when each had less than 40% of the public on them in the King of Covers contest.
Here's what I found
Less the 40% in the 2023 season of the public on:
a) Home favorites.....6-2 ATS (with the two losses in week 18)
b) Home dogs.........18-20 ATS
c) Away favorites....2-2 ATS
d) Away dogs..........22-38 ATS
Which explains why I had a rotten year during the regular season, as usually under-bet and under-loved away dogs are money in the NFL.....this year they were horrendous. Bet'cha next year they are a wonderful bet.
On the other hand an away dog in the divisional round playing an opponent that has an average scoring margin of >11 points/game off a bye have gone 10-6 ATS, 9-4 as an away dog over over 7 points......ON Texans, Packers
Average line/total,...+9.8/51 straight up 6-7 (-3.46)....average score 23.3-26.8
AD and oA(margin)>11 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and op:playoffs=0 and line>7
I have revised that query from post 22 to this....
AD and line>6 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and oA(margin)>11 and op:playoffs
It reads like this.....an away dog of greater than 6 points in the playoffs, having played at least one playoff game their previous game, playing an opponent who has a positive average scoring margin (offense minus defense) of at least 11 points per game.
a) 4-0 ATS if their opponent played in the playoffs last week
b) 9-4 ATS if their opponent is off a bye......Texans, Packers
Of these qualifying teams, an away dog of greater than 6 points who played a playoff game last week and won on the road has been 9-1 ATS (Packers) and a team that won at home has been 5-3 ATS (Texans).
A playoff away dog playing with revenge for a home loss of greater than 10 points in round 2 of the playoffs....
8-2 ATS (+4.85), 6-4 straight up (-2.30)
5-0 ATS (+8.40), 4-1 straight up (+3.00) on Sunday....ON Bucs
AD and playoffs = 1 and P:HL and P:margin<-10 and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=0 and day
Established in 1995,
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