We go 10-9 on a unit basis to basically break even on the week....60-37 ATS on a unit basis season-to-date.....our big play on the Cardinals couldn't get it done.
Angles....
a) Since 2014 an away team off a home loss, when the Vegas line is less than the calculated line has been 133-68-7 ATS, covering 66% of the time.....ON Colts, Chargers, Rams
line < oA(margin) + 2 - tA(margin) and A and week < 11 and p:HL and season>2014
b) In game numbers 5-11, a home dog that won as an away dog their previous game, and won at home the game before that, playing a team that won at home their previous game....18-1 ATS.....ON Commanders
12>game number>4 and HD and p:ADW and pp:HW and op:HW
c) The last two seasons after week 7, Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have been 1-8 ATS as home favorites, 0-3 as home divisional favorites
Plays:
1) Commanders +3', 2 units
2) Colts +6, 2 units
3) Rams +3, 2 units
4) Panthers +8, 2 units
5) Seahawks +2, 2 units
6) Lions +3, 1 unit
7) Jaguars +1', 1 unit
8) Texans +13', 1 unit
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
We go 10-9 on a unit basis to basically break even on the week....60-37 ATS on a unit basis season-to-date.....our big play on the Cardinals couldn't get it done.
Angles....
a) Since 2014 an away team off a home loss, when the Vegas line is less than the calculated line has been 133-68-7 ATS, covering 66% of the time.....ON Colts, Chargers, Rams
line < oA(margin) + 2 - tA(margin) and A and week < 11 and p:HL and season>2014
b) In game numbers 5-11, a home dog that won as an away dog their previous game, and won at home the game before that, playing a team that won at home their previous game....18-1 ATS.....ON Commanders
12>game number>4 and HD and p:ADW and pp:HW and op:HW
c) The last two seasons after week 7, Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray have been 1-8 ATS as home favorites, 0-3 as home divisional favorites
I know trends are trends but will be interesting on cardinals. In 2020, they began the season 5-2 after 8 weeks and then 7-1 last year whereas this year it’s been the complete opposite.
They also have the in season hard knocks being televised next week so who knows if that hurts or helps them as a team.
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I know trends are trends but will be interesting on cardinals. In 2020, they began the season 5-2 after 8 weeks and then 7-1 last year whereas this year it’s been the complete opposite.
They also have the in season hard knocks being televised next week so who knows if that hurts or helps them as a team.
Rams are in worse shape then bucs and look lost on offense. Kupp also looked bad at the end of the game. Will play but maybe not himself. Now they travel cross country for a game in tampa in florida heat? Not a good spot for them. Colts with ehlinger against a belicheck defense who corrected itself after bad loss to fields but confusing wilson is not comforting. Taylor also was banged up kadt game. Pats before the bye with a chance to move past jets wity the jets coming up. Gotta like pats here but its tight. Seahawks due for regression and cardinals desperate to avoid sweep and stay in race
Success is never final, failure is never fatal, and it's the courage that counts.
3
@dubz4dummyz
Rams are in worse shape then bucs and look lost on offense. Kupp also looked bad at the end of the game. Will play but maybe not himself. Now they travel cross country for a game in tampa in florida heat? Not a good spot for them. Colts with ehlinger against a belicheck defense who corrected itself after bad loss to fields but confusing wilson is not comforting. Taylor also was banged up kadt game. Pats before the bye with a chance to move past jets wity the jets coming up. Gotta like pats here but its tight. Seahawks due for regression and cardinals desperate to avoid sweep and stay in race
I know trends are trends but will be interesting on cardinals. In 2020, they began the season 5-2 after 8 weeks and then 7-1 last year whereas this year it’s been the complete opposite. They also have the in season hard knocks being televised next week so who knows if that hurts or helps them as a team.
Ja, interesting about the Cardinals....would still consider them on the road, but it's a no-play or play-against at home for me....despite their loss last week, they had a chance to cover versus the Vikes and then they dropped the punt in the 4th....
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Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:
I know trends are trends but will be interesting on cardinals. In 2020, they began the season 5-2 after 8 weeks and then 7-1 last year whereas this year it’s been the complete opposite. They also have the in season hard knocks being televised next week so who knows if that hurts or helps them as a team.
Ja, interesting about the Cardinals....would still consider them on the road, but it's a no-play or play-against at home for me....despite their loss last week, they had a chance to cover versus the Vikes and then they dropped the punt in the 4th....
We'll throw out a few angles that have been relevant so far this season in the NBA and NHL.
In the NBA this season so far....
d) A home team playing with one day's rest, playing an opponent off of 1 or 2 day's rest....30-16 ATS......Suns
e) An away team who made less three pointers last game than their last game opponent....8-20 ATS, VERSUS Timberwolves, Bulls and Warriors....if those teams are off one day rest EXACT, this moves to 5-16 ATS....VERSUS Timberwolves, Warriors
AND, drumroll please....
f) In the NHL spanning a few years (not just this season) an away dog
parameters.....
1) The away dog is less than +170
2) Has the lesser winning percentage than their present opponent
3) Is on 1 day's rest
4) game number<12
5) Has won zero or 1 out of their past two away games
110-107 straight up, +17.4% ROI.....on Ducks
AD and line < 170 and tA(W) < oA(W) and game number < 12 and rest=1 and tS(W@A, N=2) < 2
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We'll throw out a few angles that have been relevant so far this season in the NBA and NHL.
In the NBA this season so far....
d) A home team playing with one day's rest, playing an opponent off of 1 or 2 day's rest....30-16 ATS......Suns
e) An away team who made less three pointers last game than their last game opponent....8-20 ATS, VERSUS Timberwolves, Bulls and Warriors....if those teams are off one day rest EXACT, this moves to 5-16 ATS....VERSUS Timberwolves, Warriors
AND, drumroll please....
f) In the NHL spanning a few years (not just this season) an away dog
parameters.....
1) The away dog is less than +170
2) Has the lesser winning percentage than their present opponent
3) Is on 1 day's rest
4) game number<12
5) Has won zero or 1 out of their past two away games
110-107 straight up, +17.4% ROI.....on Ducks
AD and line < 170 and tA(W) < oA(W) and game number < 12 and rest=1 and tS(W@A, N=2) < 2
Colts fired their OC today, so not sure if this will be a detriment or help. Pretty hard to trust Ehlinger in 2nd game against one of the NFL's best passing defenses with Taylor not himself this year and tweaking his ankle last week. Also hard to trust Jones who's had a bad start but I think he'll perform closer to trend going forward. Took NE on a 6-pt teaser but wouldn't touch the line.
0
@Brooklyncapper
Colts fired their OC today, so not sure if this will be a detriment or help. Pretty hard to trust Ehlinger in 2nd game against one of the NFL's best passing defenses with Taylor not himself this year and tweaking his ankle last week. Also hard to trust Jones who's had a bad start but I think he'll perform closer to trend going forward. Took NE on a 6-pt teaser but wouldn't touch the line.
hoody or indigo:? I am having a problem with SDQL and bye weeks. For example using KC as my team, this week's querry. HF and op:AFW and p:????? When I put rest into the querry it gives back a strange looking reply. Maybe I am just dumb but can not get it right. Thanx in advance for any examples that show the way.
Try "rest > 11.5." That produces KC and LAC for week #9; they had byes in week #8.
1
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
hoody or indigo:? I am having a problem with SDQL and bye weeks. For example using KC as my team, this week's querry. HF and op:AFW and p:????? When I put rest into the querry it gives back a strange looking reply. Maybe I am just dumb but can not get it right. Thanx in advance for any examples that show the way.
Try "rest > 11.5." That produces KC and LAC for week #9; they had byes in week #8.
A first round of the playoffs home team who won less games last season that their present opponent.....12-4-1 ATS....on Lions, Alouettes
p:playoffs=0 and playoffs=1 and H and tpS(W)<opS(W)
If that home team in the above situation has won less games in their last four games played than their present opponent this moves to 5-0 ATS (+14.4), 4-1 straight up (+10.7) .....Lions, Alouettes
p:playoffs=0 and playoffs=1 and H and tpS(W)<opS(W) and tS(W, N=4)<opS(W, N=4)
Calgary has won 3 out of their last four games.....BC has won 2 out of their last four.
Hamilton has won 4 out of their past four games.....Montreal has won 2 out of their last four.
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For you Canadian football bettors,........
First round playoff angle.......
A first round of the playoffs home team who won less games last season that their present opponent.....12-4-1 ATS....on Lions, Alouettes
p:playoffs=0 and playoffs=1 and H and tpS(W)<opS(W)
If that home team in the above situation has won less games in their last four games played than their present opponent this moves to 5-0 ATS (+14.4), 4-1 straight up (+10.7) .....Lions, Alouettes
p:playoffs=0 and playoffs=1 and H and tpS(W)<opS(W) and tS(W, N=4)<opS(W, N=4)
Calgary has won 3 out of their last four games.....BC has won 2 out of their last four.
Hamilton has won 4 out of their past four games.....Montreal has won 2 out of their last four.
Ja, same angle has the Predators on Thursday....Thursdays have been the most profitable day under this scenario at going 30-28 straight up, ROI approximately 20%.......ON Predators.
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Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:
Ducks come through too! Thanks Indigo
Ja, same angle has the Predators on Thursday....Thursdays have been the most profitable day under this scenario at going 30-28 straight up, ROI approximately 20%.......ON Predators.
Read on VSIN that "away favorites off a bye have hit around 65%".....you read that kind of information all the time....and we as bettors owe it to ourselves and our wallet to know if in fact it is true.
If we use the query text
AF and rest
we get 107-75 ATS,...and if we add a couple of parameters of having the line less strong under -7 and adding the month, teams off a bye in November that are less than -7 while their opponent is not off a bye have gone 30-12 ATS.......Chargers
There is a well known betting site that has put out angles for over over 10 years, and about 10% of them were accurate, and most of them were plain bad, so they were deceiving people that didn't bother to check the accuracy of what they were putting out. I don't see them doing that any more, and perhaps they realized that the lack of credibility by doing so was harming their business, and probably at some point, their personal lives. I've seen this time again that if you do something dishonest, you bring dishonesty to yourself.
I have had personal dealings with people that were defrauding the goverment in their businesses and were not paying the proper amount of taxes...inevitably they attracted employees that stole from them and in one case they lost their ability to practice their profession for awhile. The ancient books of wisdom spend A LOT of time talking about doing right, for many of us when young males, those rules seem archaic and restrictive, but in actuality they are protecting ourselves from ourselves!
We can embrace this idea or we can learn some very harsh lessons.
Do not forsake wisdom, and she will protect you; love her, and she will watch over you. Get wisdom. Though it cost all you have, get understanding. Cherish her, and she will exalt you; embrace her, and she will honor you.
Proverbs 4: 6-8
3
Read on VSIN that "away favorites off a bye have hit around 65%".....you read that kind of information all the time....and we as bettors owe it to ourselves and our wallet to know if in fact it is true.
If we use the query text
AF and rest
we get 107-75 ATS,...and if we add a couple of parameters of having the line less strong under -7 and adding the month, teams off a bye in November that are less than -7 while their opponent is not off a bye have gone 30-12 ATS.......Chargers
There is a well known betting site that has put out angles for over over 10 years, and about 10% of them were accurate, and most of them were plain bad, so they were deceiving people that didn't bother to check the accuracy of what they were putting out. I don't see them doing that any more, and perhaps they realized that the lack of credibility by doing so was harming their business, and probably at some point, their personal lives. I've seen this time again that if you do something dishonest, you bring dishonesty to yourself.
I have had personal dealings with people that were defrauding the goverment in their businesses and were not paying the proper amount of taxes...inevitably they attracted employees that stole from them and in one case they lost their ability to practice their profession for awhile. The ancient books of wisdom spend A LOT of time talking about doing right, for many of us when young males, those rules seem archaic and restrictive, but in actuality they are protecting ourselves from ourselves!
We can embrace this idea or we can learn some very harsh lessons.
Do not forsake wisdom, and she will protect you; love her, and she will watch over you. Get wisdom. Though it cost all you have, get understanding. Cherish her, and she will exalt you; embrace her, and she will honor you.
g) In November away divisional favorites off at least 2 straight losses have gone 21-13 ATS.....Packers
h) A week 9 home team with four wins on the season....29-53-4 ATS.....VERSUS Falcons, Patriots, Bengals, Commanders.....if that team is off a loss this falls to 11-31-3 ATS...... 4-9 ATS if that team made the playoffs last season....VERSUS Bengals
i) An away team in week 9 with 5 wins exact on the season....39-23 ATS......ON Titans, Dolphins, Seahawks, Ravens.....if that away team is playing a team off a loss, this moves to 23-9 ATS....ON Seahawks, Dolphins
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Angles, continued.....
g) In November away divisional favorites off at least 2 straight losses have gone 21-13 ATS.....Packers
h) A week 9 home team with four wins on the season....29-53-4 ATS.....VERSUS Falcons, Patriots, Bengals, Commanders.....if that team is off a loss this falls to 11-31-3 ATS...... 4-9 ATS if that team made the playoffs last season....VERSUS Bengals
i) An away team in week 9 with 5 wins exact on the season....39-23 ATS......ON Titans, Dolphins, Seahawks, Ravens.....if that away team is playing a team off a loss, this moves to 23-9 ATS....ON Seahawks, Dolphins
hoody or indigo:? I am having a problem with SDQL and bye weeks. For example using KC as my team, this week's querry. HF and op:AFW and p:????? When I put rest into the querry it gives back a strange looking reply. Maybe I am just dumb but can not get it right. Thanx in advance for any examples that show the way.
0
@ jowchoo
Are you all set?
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
hoody or indigo:? I am having a problem with SDQL and bye weeks. For example using KC as my team, this week's querry. HF and op:AFW and p:????? When I put rest into the querry it gives back a strange looking reply. Maybe I am just dumb but can not get it right. Thanx in advance for any examples that show the way.
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