WEEK6 6's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 6's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  For the 1st time this year, last week's SUCKER BET never had a chance as the Colts put a whoppin' on the Titans, bring the season tally to 2-3 ATS.  This week the obvious choice would be the Raiders plus 2 touchdowns vs. the Eagles, but I think the line should be closer to 16 as the Raiders are is total disarray.  Don't worry, this week's pick will be unpopular as I'm taking the Bills +10 at the Jets.  As well as the Jets have started out, I'm still not convinced their offense is anything to get excited about.  In the Jets last 3 games, their opponents have gained more yards on the ground and in the air.  Cotchery is likely out with a hamstring. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.  The Jets are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.  H2H, the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meeting with the Jets.  In looking at pass defenses, these two teams are very comparable and you could make a case for the Bills getting the slight edge.  Statistically looking at both teams passing game, again they are both very evenly matched as they both rank toward the middle/bottom of the league.  As for running the ball, the Bills average more yards per play and per game.  Look for DE Aaron Schobel to have a big game as he has four sacks in his past three games against the Jets.  The Jets are on short rest and might be looking ahead to next week's rematch against the Dolphins.  Neither of teams are in high gear right now suggesting a lower scoring game that favors the underdog.  There you have it, Buffalo +10.  Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 7's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

There is no such thing as a "sucker" bet. Its called football.

A good example of how to use trends and other useless prognosticating tools to argue either side.  Why can't we get someone to post a "this week's value bet."?  That would be much more useful.  Thanks.

I LIKE THE SUCKER BET! LET'S GO BUFFALO!

If you complainers dont like the thread then move along. Making negative comments does not add any value at all.

Dude,  people have been sprouting off this line, feeling good about themselves because this has been somewhat of an anomalous year with big favs and public plays hitting at a resounding number. Things WILL balance out and you can rest assured there in fact ARE sucker bets. 

Dem,

    I like your reasoning. This Buff team is the same one that came within a play of upsetting NE on MNF a few weeks ago. Now people think they cant cover 10 pts at NYJ? What people are betting is the team from the 6-3 CLE loss shows up, but its just as likely that the team from the MNF game shows up.

    Im not saying that Im going to bet BUFF, but this is a good value play here because the Jets are overvalued and it IS a division game.

I was leaning that way too , GL Demapples

The Jets have a couple tough losses and now all of a sudden the freakin BUFFALO BILLS are going to cover the number against them in NY.  WOW.  Someone tell me how in the world the Bills are going to move the ball against Ryan. 

What worries me is that the Buffalo Bills LB corp has been decimated and they will be using 1 maybe 2 rookies this week, one of which is a safety, at LB.  If healthy Buffalo D is strong but with injuries on the line, at LB, and in the secondary they are in serious trouble.

sucker bet is an appropriate title for being drawn in by a pretty lady
then having her weave fall out in the 3rd week of dating in which you probably had already bought the cow and now have lost everything, how cruel .

buff+10 sounds solid

The line is +9.5 now, not as appetizing as +10 or +10.5

Buffalo is a good situational play, but the line is not generous. Seems to me the oddsmakers are so preoccupied with preventing the "sharps" from winning that "sharp plays" very often get an unprofitable line.

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