well here it is and I know Im right

The Patriots of 5 years ago are completely different than these Patriots.  Same coach and QB, but that's about it.  This offense is built on getting the ball out fast.  Faster than ever.  They do that better than they ever have.  I'm a NYG fan, but I wouldn't put those two superbowls into your capping anymore, at all.. (thanks to Summa for convincing me of this..)

Thanks.  I know nobody "knows" any outcome, but you've said things in the past that made me take note, literally.  Thanks..

Summa, what do you think of this angle??  Doesn't it look a little too easy to just take NE -3 here??  I know online "consensus" numbers are bogus, but the ones I just looked at have 75-80% NE money.  You know the "80-20 rule"??  If 80% of the $$ is on the short road fave, take the home dog.  I know you're not one of those "conspiracy" guys, and honestly, I'm not either.  But the numbers are set to up to fool the common bettor into a losing wager.  Every week this happens.  That's how/why the books consistently win (along with the 10% vig of course).  But you know what they say, 90% of joe schmo bettors lose in the long run.  Why is that??  Why isn't it closer to 60-40??  It seems like it's because of games exactly like this.  Everything points to a NE easy win.  But why is that -3 staying put??

So far the books are comfortable with needing Den here.  I wanna be on the side of the books..

I'm gone the rest of the day.  Good stuff guys..

This "Brady is a crybaby" from the Den DL is pretty funny.  Just makes me wanna back Brady..

Let's wait until Sunday and look again at these numbers. Carolina was 75% at the beginning of the week and finished like 60%. According to pregame, there have been 200k bets on last Sunday's games and right now, this week's games are at 30-40k. So there is a lot of room to push it to 60/40. And still, it's not the money but the amount of bets. It could be 50/50 money at this point but no one gets to know it.

NE opened at -3.5 +110 at Pinnacle and moved way back to -3 +101 at one point, now steady at -3 -104. A lot of good cappers said the line is set right at -3.

I will bet the Pats and I will take this bet everytime again. Peyton Manning has been one of the worst QBs this season and Bill Belichick is a master in exposing opponent's weaknesses. The Pats defense plays similar to KC - tight man and press coverage. Manning got exposed by the KC defense this season. Contain the run (something NE can absolutely do), get pressure on the QB, play press and force Manning to go deep. If he shows a vintage performance and good accuracy on deep balls like he hasn't shown us in 14 months, I will accept it. But I cannot see this happen. Plus doesn't he struggle historically in bad weather? Just cannot see Broncos moving the chains, just can't. To get to a Super Bowl you need atleast average QB play and Manning has shown us bottom-8 QB this year. It was no difference against the Steelers when he would have been healthy. Yeah the receivers dropped some passes but did the passing offense looked fluid? And I saw a lot of zone coverage by the Steelers because their CBs and safeties aren't good individual players. Butler is a Pro Bowler and McCourty and Chung are a good safety tandem. Chung is one heck of a player. They will play man coverage don't allow many soft zone spots like the Steelers did.

Brady was moving the chains on a healthy Denver defense without Amendola & Edelman last time, why shouldn't he do this with those two guys against a defense that probably cannot start their best CB? He plays the quick-release to its best, an average of 2.1 seconds with Edelman on the field. It neutralizes every pass rush in the world.

Pats are going to roll and I expect a beating.

If Brady gets picked three times - okay.
If Manning shows BY FAR the best performance since 14 months - okay.

But I am paying to see it.

They are not giving a lot of room for pick 6's
44 is really low in today's nfl
I would need 48.5 or 49 to even consider an under play.

just wanted to add a bit of bit of my thoughts here 

i feel as though the books don't really care about what side the public bets on anymore. they are mostly going for the sharps these days 

so if most of the public bets on pats, but line goes from 3.5 to 3, there was probably a big bet on the broncos. might be bigger than all of the public bets combined. 

so as long as the books get that big broncos money, they don't really care about the pats money 

i do agree pats won't win this year, but it might not happen till the super bowl 

good luck 

But also remember the league screwing the raiders,in the TUCK RULE game with New Eng,look out if they don't like you,bad things can happen.When you have to change a rule,the next year,to accommodate a rule you called-or made up-this year,you know something is fishy.

I think it's gonna be pretty hard for sharps to even consider the Broncos in this spot.

It has long been rumored that sharps use a computer program to get 60% winners.

I don't know of one program on this planet that will show the Broncos having an edge or a shot here.

Only the fix angle can make what should be a patriots blowout turn into a bronco cover or win.

Once again
If they truly wanted some sort of even action
Then 4.5 to 6 would have been the line to put out there

Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:

I think it's gonna be pretty hard for sharps to even consider the Broncos in this spot.

It has long been rumored that sharps use a computer program to get 60% winners.

I don't know of one program on this planet that will show the Broncos having an edge or a shot here.

Only the fix angle can make what should be a patriots blowout turn into a bronco cover or win.

Once again
If they truly wanted some sort of even action
Then 4.5 to 6 would have been the line to put out there

Sagarin has Denver-4.29

Youwish, you are right about the patriots BUT a dline that can rely on its own pressure paired with press coverage could be the remedy here. Every spec of data points to New England in this game, any smart person can see that. My point here is that sometimes games aren't completely won or lost by players.....Anyone not seeing that is naive. These are the same pions who say last year's interception was a legit play and that the call was a good call. 

Jay, if you have read any and I mean any of my previous posts.
You will see that I never and I mean never ever said that players are in on it.
Always the refs.

Also if you go back the last 20 years
You will see that late November to late December have always been good for the bettors.

Mid January thru August are brutal

Whenever I may mention vegas, I always say "vegas," cause what the hell does that mean?? 

But I will say this.  I bet the take on this game will be very big.  That's just my blind opinion.  It's a huge "public" game.  I don't care what book you are, or where you are, you care about this game, cause EVERYONE wants to play it..

I actually find Ed Hochuli & his crew to be relatively fair, granted does the NFL know there is another game set to kick off at 6:40??? haha Hey guys in Carolina have another beer before walking in, NFC game won't kick off til after 7, watch...

But I know what you mean.... watch Gronkowski's OPI's ....Denver already has started squalking about him .... Of course it's not because he's a matchup nightmare with a healthy Edelman

With all due respect, I don't really know where you come up with this. Sagarin has Broncos -4. Another mathematical ranking I respect that is about efficiency (60.7% SU, 57% ATS this season) has Broncos pk. I saw several 60%+ cappers saying the line is set right and some said there is value in the home team.

It opened Pats -3.5 and moved back to -3. From which source do you want to know there isn't even money action on all the offshores? "Denver best defense in the league, Peyton off rest in his last two games, playing at home" - maybe this is what a lot of people think.

Chiefs opened -3.5 at Houston, 71% on Chiefs and line moved back to -3. Chiefs won 30-0.

Panthers opened -3, majority of the bets on Carolina all week long, line moved down to -2.5 and -2 when the publicy known bet split was 70%. Panthers stomped the Seahawks.

Last year there wasn't any case to make for the Bengals +4 at Indy without Green, Eifert and Jones and Lewis choking in the playoffs. I remember the whole world was on Indy. Historic splits show 70% on Indy and they covered with ease.

2014 AFC Championship game. Pats opened -7.5, moved to -7. Majority on the Pats "no way Pats lose" etc. and they won 45-7.

Sometimes it looks easy and it isn't, sometimes it looks easy and it is.

denver  

Deflategate gave nfl huge amounts of publicity during the offseason, but it seems like it was all a show.  Suspension that is way to high, gets thrown out of court.  Brady grins, Godell slams his fist in public then in private laughs with his buddy Kraft at all the money they are making.

Summa,
Do not tell me the public was on Carolina
I was in vegas
All I mean all had Seattle
People were throwing there Seattle and under parlays away at halftime.

Can anyone else who was at a vegas sports book please confirm what I'm saying.

I know the problem here now that I think about it while I'm typing this response.

You truly wholeheartedly believe that the way the line is moving is your indicator of where the money is moving also.

If that is the case then I do you absolutely no good to interject my opinion as I am of sound belief that lines are moved to fool the public.

Not an indicator at all in my opinion.

As much as this goes against your belief system it's sound fact that books take sides in certain games
I can tell you right now this is one of those games.

Books need Denver big here.
Yet they set a line they know is wrong public perception wise.
You even deep down inside know it's wrong but your inability to accept that the game is not as kosher as you think will not allow you to sway away and take what is the hideous Denver Broncos.

With all due respect
One of us will be on the wrong side and win and the other on what appears in every aspect to be the right side and lose.

Mafioso, what does a sportsbook in Vegas have to do with the world's offshores? Only because you saw some people holding Seahawks tickets it doesn't mean offshores didn't have 50/50 splits ?! I don't get that logic.