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49ers +3.5: The Saints are a VERY different team on the road.
Road Point Totals: 34, 23, 30, 20, 21, 26, 22, 42
Road Average: 27.25 (25.8 if you exclude games, not played in a dome) (23.7 if you exclude teams that are bottom 10 defenses)
Home Point Totals: 30, 40, 62, 27, 49, 31, 45, 45
Home Point Average: 41.6
Did you see PT rush for 8.3 yds/carry, and Sproles rush for 5.1 yds/carry?? Yeah, that won't happen in SF. How many drives would have died if not for that kind of sustained rushing?
Brees has a passer rating 21.7 points less on the road. He's got a 29/6 TD/INT ratio at home, 17/8 on the road, and has taken twice as many sacks on the road.
And they've done all of this despite facing SIGNIFICANTLY better defenses at home.
I'm not going to go into the Saints defense's splits because 5 of their 8 road games were against bottom 10 offenses. But they are a below average unit anywhere.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Niners are so wonderful on offense. But they should be able to move the ball against a unit as weak as the Saints.
Here's another fun fact. The Niners have forced at least 2 turnovers in every home game this season (averaging 2.9 turnovers per home game). New Orleans has a -3 turnover ratio (-7 on the road, and only forced 5 total on the road). The Niners have +28 (+19 at home, and forced 23 total at home)! While I generally don't like to rely on turnovers to take a side, these are monstrous differentials.
, Pack are well prepared for this game, and D finally steps up....
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