Werker's NFL Divisional Round

I wouldnt even put the NE ML in there as it doesnt add that much value, or at least put Denver +14 with the other 3 for a smaller amount (but bigger payoff).....

Like the Giants play, but still think Rodgers gets the W.

Really thinking Baltimore goes to the SB and plays GB. Dont think Saints can win 2 weeks in a row outside the dome (if they get by SF its gonna be fuckin cold in GB). I think Flacco/Rice have enough to beat the Texans with iffy qb play and then NE with a shakey all around D .....

EW: That's a very reasonable yardage amount to get. The only problem I see is that teams tend not to let the same receiver beat them twice (unless it's a guy like Megatron). There's no way they're going to give Hernandez pure single coverage again. They've already been beaten that way. Brady's going to have a nice game, but I see the receiving yardages as tough to predict for any given receiver in this one. I think Welker and the 2 TEs will combine for over 200 yds, but the breakdown is just too unpredictable for me to bet on. 

Werker I cannot understand the Love for Houston. This team has very little playoff experience. They are playing a 3rd string quarterback on the road against a team that hasn't lost at home all season! A rested team with Playoff experience. Look how nervous Houston looked last week, can you imagine what they will be like this week. At some stage Houston has to feel the loss of Schaub and Mario Williams.

People are focusing too much on the Ravens offense. They won't need huge days from Flacco or Rice to win here..I cannot see how Houston wins this game..Therefore teasing the Ravens down is  VERY solid play.

Mack: Experience is overrated. He's only 3rd string because they had two really solid guys entrenched and he's a rookie. A lot of scouts had their eyes on him, and he's shown some nice talent. He even looked pretty solid in the 2nd half last week. He we 5/7 for 80 yds and TD then. The fact is, the Texans are not a pass first team by any means, and he's more than capable of playing QB on a team that has Arian Foster and possibly the best run blocking unit in the league. You say at some stage Houston has the feel the loss of Schaub and Williams. I say they already have and adjusted accordingly.  

We finally agree!

I am with ya on the Texans buddy. Great insight and thank you for your opinions.

BOL Werker!

 

Werker I respect you man and you debate your points with class and its nice when you can debate something without name calling etc etc, I think the only way the Texans can have success in this game is if Foster has a similar game as he had last week. He had a poor game the last time these two teams met in the regular season and I haven't seen anything to make me believe that he will have a monster game against the Ravens..

To me, I think this game is a year to soon for the Texans. The Ravens have plays like Reed and Lewis that time is running out for. It will be VERY hard for the Texans to match that intensity. The job Kubiak has done is phenomenal and I think they (Texans) could make a break through in the next 5 years. The Texans defense has improved incredibily and it is bordering (if not already) an elite unit. Both teams are top 5 against the rush and the pass so in a way they cancel each other out. I think the big game players for the Ravens will make more plays then the big game players for the Texans. You can heap all the praise you want on TJ Yates, but he will never have experienced anything like what he is about to experience. Backing a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs is wreckless, end of...

I think you need to place more emphasis on playoff experience. It's no concidence the same teams over a certain span (throughtout the history of the NFL) end up in the divisional finals. The Pats, Colts, Steelers and Ravens have contested how many of the last AFC championships finale(s)? To back against any of those teams in this era is the incorrect play..That is my logic backing up my Ravens play. The trends also backup the Ravens..

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Serious Trends to backup my Patriots play (these were posted by Marc Lawrence on covers)

1) Success breeds success

Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

Teams that won 11 or more games last year (2010) are 38-9 SU and 29-17-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 7-34 SU and 15-24-1 ATS in this round.

Put one up against the other – an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year – and these hosts respond with aplomb, going an eye-opening 16-0 SU and 12-3-1 ATS. (Ravens were 12-4 last season and Houston 6-10)

2) Highway blues

Life on the road for wild card teams who won at home has been rocky, especially if they grabbed the cash as well.

These highwaymen are just 15-36 SU and 20-29-1 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.

And if these same wild card winners take to the road off one win, they dip to a disgusting 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.(Houston lost to Tennesse last regular season game)..

3) adding another trend

Martini: It was bound to happen eventually. Hehe, BOL

easybreesy: I'll be honest, I don't have a great feel for the totals this week. The numbers are pretty sharp, and I could every game going either way very easily. 

SAINTS,,,,UNDER 47,,,LARGE,,

LOV TX PLAY FOR SUNDAY

Added Play:

Added Play: Demaryius Thomas o72.5 yds: I honestly do not understand this line. Since breaking out this year, he's surpassed this yardage five out six games. And the Pats can't stop the pass. It's not like they're not trying. They can't just decide to shut him down. I do not get this line at all. 

Added Play:

SF +3.5

49ers, patriots. job well done werker. i don't know what to say on the other games. i'm a packer homer so my opinion is useless on that game. ravens d at home is scary man. yates might be in trouble. whatever, i won't try to talk you out of your picks, you know more about football than me. bol 2 ya man

Nice work.

I'm on all the Jordy Nelson props tomorrow. The Gmen will have to focus on Jennings and the lbs will have to keep an eye on finley....lots of quick outs and crossing patterns for Mr Nelson.

metalbill: Thanks, I hope you had a good day too. Yeah, No one's going to be talking me out of the Texans. I think the Ravens are rightly favored, but more than a TD is still something I'm happy to take.

Added Plays:

Good day. Hit that Niners not to allow a rush TD prop pretty hard,

Hehe...I was talking about that prop the whole game, how I wish I had it. Such a good one. For some reason, I don't have access to Eli's straight up yardage. Only v Rodgers and completions. I like him to get 300+ plenty. Will have to settle for the TD prop. 

Take a look at the Rodgers O36 attempts prop

TRAIN: I looked at that, but he's only topped that total once in his last 10 games. The only reason I won't take the under is that the one time was against the Giants.

I know, but those games were blowouts (for the most part) and they were playing to not get Rodgers hurt.....