Posted:
#1
Overall Record: 84-57-4
Sides and Totals: 68-45-4
Props: 13-9-0
Parlays: 1-0-0
Teasers: 2-3-0
Early Leans (w/ motivation explanation -- will address in game matchups if I decide any games are actual plays):
Dolphins -1: They've been playing much better football than the Jets pretty much since week 7. I think it'd be their pleasure to put the final nail in the coffin on the Jets' season.
Eagles -9.5: They've really been playing these last few weeks like they were supposed to play all year. They have to show management that they can win with these coaches and players if they want to keep their jobs. The Skins have been playing pretty bad football lately. I see no reason why this won't be a blowout.
Baltimore -1.5: This is basically a playoff game. The Steelers will not lose outright to the Browns. They just won't. This means that the Ravens must win this game to keep the 2 seed (or 1 seed). Otherwise they lose the bye, and have to go to either Denver or Oakland next week. There is a ton to play for. The Bengals must win to clinch a playoff berth. Though they could still get in with a loss, it looks unlikely. Will go into the matchup if I decide to play it.
Tennesse -3: The Texans are locked into the 3 seed. There's nothing to play for. I seriously doubt they play their important guys more than a half. The Titans are playing for a shot at the 6 seed. None of the games that would tell them if they have a shot will be played until the afternoon, so there's no shot of them losing motivation mid-game. They have been playing some decent football lately, and CJ is another week removed from injury. I think they will dominate this game. It is almost definitely going to be a play.
Chiefs +3.5: I love that Orton has the chance to keep the Broncos out of the playoffs. They treated him horribly in Denver and if anyone wants to beat them, it's him. Dawkins is out and their other starting safety, Carter, is looking doubtful. Miller hasn't been the same since his thumb injury, and Dumervil hasn't been the same this whole year. I will be looking to take some player props on the Chiefs passing game, and I just really like them getting more than a field goal.
Chargers/Raiders o49: Only if both Ford and McFadden are active. Otherwise, I could see taking the Chargers in this one. Sure they've got nothing to play for and it won't make a difference with Norv's job, but nothing like winning and snuffing out a rival's playoff hopes to take out some anger about it.
Bills/Pats o51: Both of these teams are playing some great offense right now. Neither of these teams are playing good defense right now. Both teams have every reason to want to beat the other. I see this one as a shootout coming.
Cowboys +3: I'm not going to be making this a play because I already have futures relying on the Cowboys ML and I don't feel the need to put more than that on this game, but I really do like my chances and I'm not going to be hedging. Dallas is flat out the better team and the only way I won't like them in this one is if there's bad news about Romo. In the first true playoff game of the year, I'm backing the better team. Getting a field goal is a bonus.
Side note: I'm staying off the Indy/Jax game. That game could go in so many directions, and I have no idea which one it will.
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