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Werker's NFL Week 17

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by mojo10:

Werker, no way McFadden plays for Oakland & I'd say the odds for Ford to play are about +180   GL with your plays

I'll correct myself. Apparently Jacoby Ford did practice today & is expected to play for Oakland this Sunday. Of course McFragile is still MIA.

 
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Posted: #27
I like some of your picks. Eagles big. Kyle Orton gets his revenge with the tebow train losing steam. Miami would love to sink the Jets' playoff hopes so Miami finds a way to win. The Pats over should be a lock as both teams can score. Great write up.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

I think they'd sit Brees for the 2nd half if the Niners aren't doing something crazy like losing to the Rams. I don't know about that kc/den under. As I said above, I see Orton having a solid day. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos keep up. 

I'm definitely not taking the Bengals. They have the third lowest SOV in the league.

What's SOV?

 
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Posted: #29
mojo: yeah, looks like that....not sure how i feel about it yet. mcfadden is made of glass

hnn1976: I'd be very careful about the Eagles. McCoy is definitely less than 100% and they may use him sparingly if at all this week. He's a big part of their success.

shiva: Strength of Victory. In this case, it means that they've beaten the 3 teams in the AFC South that are not the Texans, the 3 teams in the NFC West that are not the Niners and the Browns twice......not exactly the same thing as the Ravens. 

qmich: thanks, you too
 
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Posted: #30
Not touchind the over 55 in NO game.

Maybe Car +7.5 tho.

excited for your playoff picks 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:


Bengals aren't the better squad. They are 0-3 vs the Steelers and ravens this year. Their best win was against the Titans.

The Ravens only play bad when they have a let down, I highly doubt they have a let down playing for the division title and a first round bye 


road losses at Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego.  That's a lot of let down.
 
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Posted: #32
Die hard Jets fan here:


I really hate betting against my squad and rarely do, but this is a great opportunity to do so.  The Jets have officially packed it in this year.  They know even IF (big if) they beat the Fins, they will need a tremendous amount of help in order to make the playoffs.

Losing the Giants marked the end of their season and team morale could not be lower.  I expect Jason Taylor to have a field day in his last game as a professional and will absolutely make Wayne Hunter look like an even bigger joke than he already is.  Sanchez will be eating Miami turf all day.  

Naturally, Rex Ryan is one of the most hated coaches in the league and the Dolphins are essentially playing with house money in this game.  Although the Jets run D is usually stout, and I don't see Reggie Bush going off, but it should open up the play action option.  It really pains me to be writing this as a Jets fan, but there is no way I would advise anybody to take the Jets this week.

GL
 
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Posted: #33
Werker:

Don't know what you have been watching but the Redskins have been playing pretty well under the radar lately.  I think over the total in the Eagles game will be the best play in that game.

Agree with you about the Titans but they have been such a Jekyl and Hyde team this year that I would stay away.

Love the Chiefs and completely agree.

Absolutely love the Steelers here.  Unfortunately for the Browns, playing Balt and Steelers on b2b weeks is arguably one of the most difficult things to do in the NFL.

With the division still up for grabs, Steelers should blowout the lowly browns.  Don't even care that its in Cleveland.  Mike Wallace had a sub-par game last time these two met in that ugly Thursday night game.  I think he will go off and improve his already incredible season numbers (71 rec, 1182 and 8 tds).  Personally I think he will want to hit double digit  TDS and a Wallace TD prop should be in order here.

Bottom line: I think the Steelers play extremely hard regardless of what happens in the Ravens game.  Tomlin runs a great ship and I expect nothing less this Sunday as he ultimately he wants his team to enter the playoffs with swag and momentum.


 
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Posted: #34
^^^  I feel bad for Cle being in same div as Bal/Pitts.  That's just brutal w/ those Def.  Cinci as the 3rd team ain't no push-over either.

-------------------

Calvin missed 2nd straight pracice Fri...
https://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d825841f3/article/lions-wr-johnson-misses-second-practice-with-achilles-injury

Now I'm worried!!! 
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

mojo: yeah, looks like that....not sure how i feel about it yet. mcfadden is made of glass

hnn1976: I'd be very careful about the Eagles. McCoy is definitely less than 100% and they may use him sparingly if at all this week. He's a big part of their success.

shiva: Strength of Victory. In this case, it means that they've beaten the 3 teams in the AFC South that are not the Texans, the 3 teams in the NFC West that are not the Niners and the Browns twice......not exactly the same thing as the Ravens. 

qmich: thanks, you too


From Rotoworld...

Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg acknowledges that the Eagles have discussed getting McCoy the rushing title as long as it's "within the structure" of the offense. McCoy will enter the game 128 yards behind Maurice Jones-Drew, so he's likely going to need his highest output of the season to accomplish the feat versus the Redskins.

GL!
 
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Posted: #36
earthWake: Yeah, I've decided to stay away from the Panthers/Saints. I just can't get a read on intentions and really think this game could do anything. The single best play that I see in this one could be the Panthers TT o23. Or possibly a Panthers player prop. 

Skipster: They also have dominant road wins against the Browns and Rams, and beat the Steelers in Pitt as well. Losing in San Diego is no shameful loss, nor was the loss to Seattle in Seattle. The questionable losses were in Jacksonville and Tennessee and they were a long time ago. The Ravens seem to have figured out that the offense needs to run through Rice, and have been playing at a high level lately. The Chargers were completely healthy when the Ravens lost to them, and they are a top team when they are healthy. I still haven't decided to make this one a play, but the Ravens are the much better team. 

Michfan: I am pretty sure that the Fins will be a play, but haven't locked it up yet. The Jets do suck. 

Regarding the Skins/Eagles game, I'm not sure I wouldn't just prefer to take the Skins TT if you think they'll produce. I'm still waiting on McCoy updates. I don't trust him this week, and despite that Rotoworld item on McCoy, there's no way he's getting the rushing title with MJD at home against Indy. 

And yeah, I'm leaning pretty hard on the Steelers too, but I do think the Browns will put up a fight here. Hillis actually looked decent last week. Just not sure yet.

gmitron: I wouldn't be worried about Megatron. He's not human.
 
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Posted: #37
ravens bol werker
 
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Posted: #38
GL, werker.  Just playing devil's advocate.
 
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Posted: #39
I feel like McCoy's determination on winning the rushing title isn't pending on MJD's matchup...at least in his mind.
 
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Posted: #40

Phillys season is done. Mccoy, Jackson, Maclin and Vick all dont want to get hurt in a meaningless game. You wont see them going the extra mile.....

Jets is same situation. They will lay down. Sanchez is garbage.

Detroit has a great chance to go to the Super Bowl. They will win this week, which will set up a rubber match @ Lambeau Field.....NFL is all about ratings....

Panthers gonna give Saints all they can handle. Monday night football, the holidays, and breaking that record added to the fact this game really doesnt change anything for NO (SF chokes which is unlikely). Newton is gonna go balls to the wall.....

Titans are going to win that game. No way Houston plays all its starters in a totally meaningless game (to them)....

Pitt wont lose to Cleveland....just not gonna happen.

Pitt/Tenn/Det.Miami ML parlay pays decent.....

 

bol werker, great season bro

 
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Posted: #41
I look at the Tennessee game from a contrarian angle. Texans don't want to enter their first playoff game with a 3rd string quarterback and a three game losing streak. They need a decent effort to build up momentum. If I was Kubiak, I'd play to win. I'd open up my passing offense a bit and see what T.J.Y can do with some deep tosses. Wide receiver A.J. has missed a lot of action so I'd like to see him targeted a bit and build up some cohesion with T.J.Y. Why would you hold T.J.Y. back when he desperately needs to get more confident with offense. TITANS haven't done much in the way of quality wins and for the most part are pretenders.
I see most people like the TITANS, but I'll play the roll of the contrarian on this one.

Also, I think Indy is playing pretty good right now and is the play against JAX. I know - they want the first pick in the draft. If they wanted it so bad, why didn't keep Painter under centre. As far as I can tell Indy is playing hard with a little bit of extra rest. We will see.
 
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Posted: #42
metalbill: thanks, you too bud

skipster: fair enough, i like the debate. bol

michfan: I agree, but if he looks like he looks at all shaky out there, they will have no reason to go for the rushing title if it's out of reach.

TRAIN: Yeah, I agree with you on the Eagles. 

I definitely agree that the Jets are garbage, but I don't trust Daniel Thomas even a little. Bush being out really changes the complexion of this game. It's become a no play for me. 

The Lions are going to be one of a very few plays for me this week. As much as is being written about the Lions not caring about a win, they've got momentum, and a chance to play a MUCH weaker NFC East team instead of the Saints in New Orleans....that's something to play for. (And no, the Niners are not losing tomorrow.)

I kinda like the Panthers tomorrow too, but it might be a game time decision to see if the Saints talk about playing time. 

I'm backing off the Titans a little. They're definitely going to be a play if Wade Phillips is still gone. If he's calling the game from the booth, I'm staying away. 

The Steelers are also going to be a play for me this week.

Shiva: I agree that the Titans game is no gimme. As I said, I'm going with the Phillips angle. 

I kinda like Indy this week, but it's just the theory that the Colts players want Peyton back. I'm not putting money on that. 
 
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Posted: #43
Added Plays:

Lions -3 -120
Steelers -6.5
Raiders -3
Cowboys ML +150

This could be it for the week. Week 17 could be the toughest set of games to cap that I can think of. 
 
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Posted: #44
McCarthy said he may even play 3rd string QB Graham Sun.
Matthews/Woodson listed as questionable even though they were not hurt last game, I take this as sign they won't be playing.

https://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/136445413.html

Flynn is good back-up QB but hoping there won't be many starters out there w/ him.

 
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Posted: #45
Werker, I read that Phillips will be in the booth calling defensive signals for TEXANS.
 
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Posted: #46
Final Card:

Lions -3 -120
Steelers -6.5
Raiders -3
Chiefs +3 +100
Cowboys ML +150
Teaser: Titans +7.5/Pats -1/Niners PK

BOL everyone...Gonna be an interesting day
 
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Posted: #47

6 PT TEASE,,PACK U47-,,BEARS U47-,,RAIDERS O42,,MIAMI O33..................

WILL DO A PARLAY ON UR 1ST 4 GAMES...............

 
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Posted: #48
the lions would love to beat the shit out of the packers. - even w/o rodgers.


Suh will have Flynn eating turf all day
 
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Posted: #49
damn let you talk me out of saints/panthers over 

 
 
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Posted: #50
gl luckyly

michfan, apparently not...big winner today is Matt Flynn, who just made millions of dollars

earthwake......yeah.....
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