I just am not understanding it yet? Please shed some light on it.
Steelers had 2 games at home, a better record overall..
Packers were the road team for 3 weeks.. Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jets and they are better than the Eagles and Falcons and Bears combined in my view Steelers covered both times... Steelers should be favored right?
They have a 2 time super bowl winning QB - and a D that kills you
Shouldn't this line be Pitt - 2?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I just am not understanding it yet? Please shed some light on it.
Steelers had 2 games at home, a better record overall..
Packers were the road team for 3 weeks.. Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jets and they are better than the Eagles and Falcons and Bears combined in my view Steelers covered both times... Steelers should be favored right?
They have a 2 time super bowl winning QB - and a D that kills you
thats what i figured but the thing is - so is PITT to a certain extent
agreed! i don't think the Bruuuuuce's argument holds a lot of water, in this case... personally i think the line is right on the money, and i am inclined to think betting either side is nothing more than a gamble... will probably have to find value in props, totals or halves/quarters wagers...
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Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
thats what i figured but the thing is - so is PITT to a certain extent
agreed! i don't think the Bruuuuuce's argument holds a lot of water, in this case... personally i think the line is right on the money, and i am inclined to think betting either side is nothing more than a gamble... will probably have to find value in props, totals or halves/quarters wagers...
tend to agree, and i am of the opinion that you don't force a play when the line is perfect... that is gambling, not capping! however, there may be a play on the total, and there is sure to be a prop play or two with some value...
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Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:
the line is perfect
tend to agree, and i am of the opinion that you don't force a play when the line is perfect... that is gambling, not capping! however, there may be a play on the total, and there is sure to be a prop play or two with some value...
I just am not understanding it yet? Please shed some light on it.
Steelers had 2 games at home, a better record overall..
Packers were the road team for 3 weeks.. Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jets and they are better than the Eagles and Falcons and Bears combined in my view Steelers covered both times... Steelers should be favored right?
They have a 2 time super bowl winning QB - and a D that kills you
Shouldn't this line be Pitt - 2?
The answer is actually quite easy to understand.
The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner. Never has been. Never will be. The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.
Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite. That's why they are the favored team. But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win.
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since. It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and
since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved
upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.
I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself. I see value in that, even if others don't. I think the game is essentially a tossup. I like getting +140 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup. And with my +140 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years? Wow!
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Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
I just am not understanding it yet? Please shed some light on it.
Steelers had 2 games at home, a better record overall..
Packers were the road team for 3 weeks.. Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jets and they are better than the Eagles and Falcons and Bears combined in my view Steelers covered both times... Steelers should be favored right?
They have a 2 time super bowl winning QB - and a D that kills you
Shouldn't this line be Pitt - 2?
The answer is actually quite easy to understand.
The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner. Never has been. Never will be. The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.
Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite. That's why they are the favored team. But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win.
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since. It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and
since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved
upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.
I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself. I see value in that, even if others don't. I think the game is essentially a tossup. I like getting +140 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup. And with my +140 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years? Wow!
It's all public perception and the books getting money on both sides since the Superbowl is all public money (sharp money is a drop in the bucket on the overall handle). Main reason the Pack is favored is because of the second half the Steelers had against the Jets. They played not to lose and it almost cost them. They won't make that mistake in the SB. This is exactly why the Steelers are the dog. I heard at halftime the books had the Steelers favored by 3 until they watched the second half! If I can get Pitt at +3 without having to pay much for it, I will hammer this game!
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It's all public perception and the books getting money on both sides since the Superbowl is all public money (sharp money is a drop in the bucket on the overall handle). Main reason the Pack is favored is because of the second half the Steelers had against the Jets. They played not to lose and it almost cost them. They won't make that mistake in the SB. This is exactly why the Steelers are the dog. I heard at halftime the books had the Steelers favored by 3 until they watched the second half! If I can get Pitt at +3 without having to pay much for it, I will hammer this game!
I think the line is perfect right now, there will be a lot of action on both sides, I dont think Vegas will want to us the advantage of hitting up Pitt or GB as a bigger dog
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I think the line is perfect right now, there will be a lot of action on both sides, I dont think Vegas will want to us the advantage of hitting up Pitt or GB as a bigger dog
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
you can't seriously believe that.... if vegas knew pitt wins by 4 they would put out pitt -3 and watch everyone and there brother pound the shit out of green bay and laugh all the way to the bank.... i know they can't know exactly who is going to win and by how much but if they did din't think for a second they woulnd't set trap lines like no tommorrow. either way IMO the line for the super bowl is always set to garner 50/50 action... books may fish for lopsided action when they like a side during the regular season but as the playoffs role around and ecspecially the super bowl too much action is but on the games to be wrong... just collect your 10% and wait till next year
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
you can't seriously believe that.... if vegas knew pitt wins by 4 they would put out pitt -3 and watch everyone and there brother pound the shit out of green bay and laugh all the way to the bank.... i know they can't know exactly who is going to win and by how much but if they did din't think for a second they woulnd't set trap lines like no tommorrow. either way IMO the line for the super bowl is always set to garner 50/50 action... books may fish for lopsided action when they like a side during the regular season but as the playoffs role around and ecspecially the super bowl too much action is but on the games to be wrong... just collect your 10% and wait till next year
I myself believed that the SB line would open up PITT -3/3.5, and when my friends who watched the AFC/NFC championships from the Book at Caesar's called to tell me the opening GB -1.5 line I almost dropped the phone!
I realize that lines are a function of stats - AND in a SB especially, PUBLIC PERCEPTION, the latter being legitimized by a speedy whole point move to Green Bay -2.5... well, I think the chalk increasing to 2.5 as fast as it did had a LOT to do with how good ARodg and the Packer D has looked so far this postseason on the road.
Where the line now stands is not where it will finish by kick-off imo, I expect the line to drop back to GB-2 & probably even GB-1 as folks come to their senses and begin to think a little harder and more deeply at what's at stake, who the key play-makers are likely to be, and just who has the experience and entitlement to prevail in a match-up of great defenses such as this one. Hey, GB's defense is exemplary, but they were the SECOND best D this year behind, you already know it, the fabled "Steel Curtain"...
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I myself believed that the SB line would open up PITT -3/3.5, and when my friends who watched the AFC/NFC championships from the Book at Caesar's called to tell me the opening GB -1.5 line I almost dropped the phone!
I realize that lines are a function of stats - AND in a SB especially, PUBLIC PERCEPTION, the latter being legitimized by a speedy whole point move to Green Bay -2.5... well, I think the chalk increasing to 2.5 as fast as it did had a LOT to do with how good ARodg and the Packer D has looked so far this postseason on the road.
Where the line now stands is not where it will finish by kick-off imo, I expect the line to drop back to GB-2 & probably even GB-1 as folks come to their senses and begin to think a little harder and more deeply at what's at stake, who the key play-makers are likely to be, and just who has the experience and entitlement to prevail in a match-up of great defenses such as this one. Hey, GB's defense is exemplary, but they were the SECOND best D this year behind, you already know it, the fabled "Steel Curtain"...
The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner. Never has been. Never will be. The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.
Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite. That's why they are the favored team. But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win.
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since. It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.
I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself. I see value in that, even if others don't. I think the game is essentially a tossup. I like getting +140 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup. And with my +140 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years? Wow!
Where is all this 'balance the books' mumbo jumbo coming from. Let me guess, you read an article from a linesmaker and you actually believe what he's writing?
It's amazing how someone can call themselves an authority, spew whatever propaganda they want and everyone believes. You can take a bum off the street, dress him, label him stockbroker, put him on tv, have him give picks, and everyone will somehow believe him. No wonder informercials are so profitable.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
The answer is actually quite easy to understand.
The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner. Never has been. Never will be. The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.
Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite. That's why they are the favored team. But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win.
Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.
The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since. It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.
I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself. I see value in that, even if others don't. I think the game is essentially a tossup. I like getting +140 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup. And with my +140 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years? Wow!
Where is all this 'balance the books' mumbo jumbo coming from. Let me guess, you read an article from a linesmaker and you actually believe what he's writing?
It's amazing how someone can call themselves an authority, spew whatever propaganda they want and everyone believes. You can take a bum off the street, dress him, label him stockbroker, put him on tv, have him give picks, and everyone will somehow believe him. No wonder informercials are so profitable.
Don't take linesmaker seriously. Sometimes, they're like us: don't know what the heck they're doing.
I agree 100 percent. Even though they have this super computer and probably been in this business for over 20-30 years, I feel that I'm just as good or better than them even though I only have a few years experience.
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Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:
Don't take linesmaker seriously. Sometimes, they're like us: don't know what the heck they're doing.
I agree 100 percent. Even though they have this super computer and probably been in this business for over 20-30 years, I feel that I'm just as good or better than them even though I only have a few years experience.
So tjohn, do you more or less agree with me that this particular SB line is a classic Big Town "false-favorite" point-spread?
The last Super Bowl "false-fav" line of recent memory was OAK-3.5 over Tampa back in '03 I think... the WORLD was on Tampa gettin those tasty points, esp. after the Raider's center went AWOL the night b4 the big game heh heh heh...
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So tjohn, do you more or less agree with me that this particular SB line is a classic Big Town "false-favorite" point-spread?
The last Super Bowl "false-fav" line of recent memory was OAK-3.5 over Tampa back in '03 I think... the WORLD was on Tampa gettin those tasty points, esp. after the Raider's center went AWOL the night b4 the big game heh heh heh...
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