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Why are the pack favored?

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



The answer is actually quite easy to understand. 

The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner.  Never has been.  Never will be.  The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.

Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite.  That's why they are the favored team.  But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win. 

Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.

The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since.  It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.

I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself.  I see value in that, even if others don't.  I think the game is essentially a tossup.  I like getting +120 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup.  And with my +120 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years?  Wow!


good stuff actually


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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



The answer is actually quite easy to understand. 

The line (pointspread) is not meant to predict the winner.  Never has been.  Never will be.  The line is simply a number to generate equal money, or as equal as possible, on both sides.

Right now Green Bay, with the way they've been playing, is the public favorite.  That's why they are the favored team.  But that in no way at all means the oddsmakers expect them to win. 

Even if the oddsmakers had a crystal ball and KNEW Pittsburgh, for example, was going to win, and by exactly how much, they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite.

The line opened up at Green Bay -1.5 and enough money came in on Green Bay early to quickly bump it up to 2.5 which is about where it's been since.  It was adjusted because the oddsmakers wish to balance their books as much as possible, and since the initial money was initially bet on the Packers, the line moved upward to entice others to bet on Pittsburgh.

I like Pittsburgh on the Moneline myself.  I see value in that, even if others don't.  I think the game is essentially a tossup.  I like getting +140 odds on what I think is essentially a tossup.  And with my +140 odds I just happen to get a team who's already won this event twice in the past five years?  Wow!

Sounds logical but what makes you think the books want balanced action on both sides?  Who says?

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Sounds logical but what makes you think the books want balanced action on both sides?  Who says?



A Vegas sportsbook, for example, wants equal action on both sides because they want to EARN their profit.  They don't want to WIN your money, they want to EARN their commission.

Below is a clip from an article written by casino owner Bob Stupak, that appeared in the January 1983 issue of Gambling Times:

"The second thing people don't realize is that a casino does NOT make its profits by winning money.  For example, a fellow came into Vegas Word with $28,000.00 a few Saturdays ago, and lost it in about 10 minutes.  Now, we didn't earn that money.  We just won it.  We were gambling and we got lucky.  But I can't survive on WON money.  I can only survive on EARNED money.  That guy's $28,000.00 is just in ESCROW.  Sooner or later somebody is going to come in and win it back.  

Everyday some people win and some people lose.  One day per week or month there might be more winning bets than losing bets, but in the long run they even out.  The only thing the casino EARNS is the money it retains from winning bettors by paying them slightly less than true odds."

Earlier I said that even if the books had a crystal ball and KNEW the final score, (let's say Pittsburgh won by a TD) they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite, no matter what the actual final score.  One or more people questioned that statement.  I stand by it.  The books want to EARN their profits.  They don't want to win your money.  If they win it, as explained above, someone is going to just win it right back, probably next week.  Books can't survive on won money, only earned money.

Books want equal action on both sides, (and as much action as possible) for one reason... they want to EARN their profit by collection the juice from the winning bettors.  (And yes, it's the winners that pay the juice, not the losers.)

Right now, with the line holding at GB -2.5, it means the books are getting equal action on both sides.  If not, the line would again move, one way or another.  I read statements in this and other fourms like, "The books are begging for Steeler money."  Not true.  Not now.  If they were "begging" for Steeler money, they'd move the line to 3.  Right now the books just want your money on either team.  The more money they collect, the more profit for them.  And yes, the want equal action or as close to it as possible.
 
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Posted: #54
I agree with Ed Collins.
The line is all set to get 50-50 money on either side no matter what anyone says.

I on the other hand am looking at the injuries and say that by next week I may like GB teased to +4.5 and over 37.5?

To me it is all a matter of lucky choices.
But we will see.
 
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Posted: #55

I'm not sure I agree.  Anyone can say anything they like but unless you know the real facts and books then you will know the truth.  If casinos want even action and don't actually want to Win then they should make their Poker rooms bigger and less blackjack tables.    Casinos are a business and are greedy like any other money making machine.  I doubt they can survive on collection or juice alone.  If they can find an advantage like they do in Black Jack, roulette, pan 9, etc., they will be more than happy to take your money and say they Won it.  And believe me, the odds for them winning a sports bet is much better than for them to win in Black jack.  The odds are there. 

  For anyone that thinks these books don't know the outcomes of some games before they even start is naive.  These guys are pros and get inside info.  It's funny how some guys actually think the linesmakers made a 'mistake' or they are 'just like us'- that's ignorance at it's finest.  That's like telling a doctor you know as much about the human body as he does when you are a plumber. 

 
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Posted: #56

YUP ED Collins is 100% correct i live very close to vegas we drive there on occasion and we are in tight with the head  men at the big books !

What we told them of what we knew was 100% correct dosent matter what YOU think for each game they set the lines accordingly to what they percieve to be the general public reaction

THE Super bowl and other world chamionship games are wgaered differntly

any BS you hear about sharps or wiseguys making wagers 2 weeks before the game is played is a LIE !

DO NOT buy into it from any tout or expert on any website YOU read !

they make thier wagers late waiting for some fuckup to screw up night before the game or some action or words by either team that guarantees a victory !

 

 
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Posted: #57
hey yo-yo's.....the last thing the books want is a push....line will never go to 3, but the late money is going on the steelers and the line will drop to 1.5 by gametime.......take the steelers....bet your grandma  !!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #58

This doesn't sound like Vegas wants even action to me-

  'That means that it is unlikely that the books here in Vegas will come anywhere near the haul they took in a year ago, when bettors dumped down $82.7 million and cashed for only $75.8 million, leaving the house with $6.9 million profit. Nevada Gaming Control Board numbers stated that the win was $179,000 more than sports books won last year, on $1.21 million more in bets.'

That's not including the juice they took in. 

 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

I just am not understanding it yet? Please shed some light on it.

Steelers had 2 games at home, a better record overall..

Packers were the road team for 3 weeks.. Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jets and they are better than the Eagles and Falcons and Bears combined in my view Steelers covered both times... Steelers should be favored right?

They have a 2 time super bowl winning QB - and a D that kills you

Shouldn't this line be Pitt - 2?





 

They want you to bet the Steelers. So, bet the Packers !!!!!

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

...I doubt they can survive on collection or juice alone... 

...For anyone that thinks these books don't know the outcomes of some games before they even start is naive... 



That's all they can survive on, is the juice.  Everything else they "win", as Bob Stupak explained above, is simply "in escrow."  They might win money one day, and the next day lose it right back to someone else.  The only thing they can survive on, what they earn, is the juice they collect by paying the winning bettors less than the true odds.  This holds true for all casino games, whether it be blackjack, roulette, sports bets, etc.

Please tell me you truly don't believe the outcome of the Super Bowl has already been determined.  I just have a hard time thinking that anyone can be so naive.

I said it earlier but obviously Gridguesser missed it.  The books do not want you to bet the Steelers.  If they were wanted Steeler money, they'd move the line to 3.  (And then, almost immediately, with all of the Pittsburgh bets that would come flooding in, they'd probably adjust the line right back down to 2.5, because they would again "want Packer money.") 

No, right now the books just want your money on either team.  The current line divides public opinion right about down the middle.  The more money the books collect, the more profit for them.  They want equal action on both sides, or as close to it as possible. 

And no, they don't know who is going to win and the outcome has not already been determined.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Back in 2005, shouldnt the Bengals had been -3 instead of +3 at home vs the Steelers in the wildcard round?

Why were the #6 seed Steelers -4.5 in the super bowl over the #1 seed Seahawks?

Oddsmakers are not stupid!


They're not always right either.
Why was Indy favored over New Orleans last year?

The line should be Pitt -2.5... they're probably under-dogs because of the injury to their center in the AFC Championship game & because of how handily the Packers beat Atlanta & Philly (two teams with NO defense, I might add).

The X-Factor here is that, though he will not concede it, Rodgers is still probably suffering from that blow to the head Peppers gave him.

Pitt +3 for me
 
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Posted: #62

Pack are favored, because they're the better team when healthy..

I live in Steeler Nation, and Taylor, Gay and Clark better pray thatthe defensive line gets pressure on Rodgers, because they can't cover speedy recievers...Baltimore passed all over them, and the Jets passed all over them, when they weren't holding....Atlanta had only lost 1 home game, great offense with Ryan, Turner, and White...Pack shut them down in their DOME...late TD mad eit a respectable 14 point showing for the Falcons...And if it weren't for the prevent defense, the Bears wouldn't have scored, as the Pack sat on the ball, and let defense win that game....Mike Wallace is Pittsburgh's only deep threat any longer, and I don't see Mendenhall running against Green Bay like he did against the Jets. Should be more like when he played Baltimore. Pittsburgh's Defensive line and linebackers will have to be the difference, if Pittsburgh's gonna win....What I don't understand is the 45 over/under when you have the 2 best defenses in football   I lok for a 21-17 game either way....ofcourse I'm hoping it's the Packer's way...

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Uneek:

hey yo-yo's.....the last thing the books want is a push....line will never go to 3, but the late money is going on the steelers and the line will drop to 1.5 by gametime.......take the steelers....bet your grandma  !!!!!!!!!!!!


I agree on the line drop.

ARodgersWins... you wouldn't be BIASED would you?
 
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Posted: #64

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



That's all they can survive on, is the juice.  Everything else they "win", as Bob Stupak explained above, is simply "in escrow."  They might win money one day, and the next day lose it right back to someone else.  The only thing they can survive on, what they earn, is the juice they collect by paying the winning bettors less than the true odds.  This holds true for all casino games, whether it be blackjack, roulette, sports bets, etc.

Please tell me you truly don't believe the outcome of the Super Bowl has already been determined.  I just have a hard time thinking that anyone can be so naive.

I said it earlier but obviously Gridguesser missed it.  The books do not want you to bet the Steelers.  If they were wanted Steeler money, they'd move the line to 3.  (And then, almost immediately, with all of the Pittsburgh bets that would come flooding in, they'd probably adjust the line right back down to 2.5, because they would again "want Packer money.") 

No, right now the books just want your money on either team.  The current line divides public opinion right about down the middle.  The more money the books collect, the more profit for them.  They want equal action on both sides, or as close to it as possible. 

And no, they don't know who is going to win and the outcome has not already been determined.

Escrow account or not- table games, they are not looking to get even action.  They are running a business and just like any business, they are in it to make money.  I run a business and I have money in my account just in case also just like they might have money in their account just in case also.  But I expect not to have to use that money in my account just as much as they don't expect to be paying out more than they profited.  Obviously their business has ups and downs and they might have to pay out more on any given day but in the end they will expect a profit just like any profitable business.

   As the article wrote, they won the past 2 years or so.  In other words, they profited millions on top of the juice from losers.  The juice is there to tip the scales of a 50/50 bet in their favor so at the end of the day they can lose more bets in term of dollars than they win and could still possibly squeak out a profit.  Same goes for any game in Vegas that's why they always have the edge when it comes to profiting. 

 From your statement about BJ and other table games doesn't make any sense from the fact that Vegas doesn't take a collection.  Only way they win is to beat your hand. 

 
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Posted: #65

Quote Originally Posted by Uneek:

hey yo-yo's.....the last thing the books want is a push....line will never go to 3, but the late money is going on the steelers and the line will drop to 1.5 by gametime.......take the steelers....bet your grandma  !!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a much better chance the line goes to 3 than the line going to 1.5. 

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by ARodgersWins:

Pack are favored, because they're the better team when healthy..

I live in Steeler Nation, and Taylor, Gay and Clark better pray thatthe defensive line gets pressure on Rodgers, because they can't cover speedy recievers...Baltimore passed all over them, and the Jets passed all over them, when they weren't holding....Atlanta had only lost 1 home game, great offense with Ryan, Turner, and White...Pack shut them down in their DOME...late TD mad eit a respectable 14 point showing for the Falcons...And if it weren't for the prevent defense, the Bears wouldn't have scored, as the Pack sat on the ball, and let defense win that game....Mike Wallace is Pittsburgh's only deep threat any longer, and I don't see Mendenhall running against Green Bay like he did against the Jets. Should be more like when he played Baltimore. Pittsburgh's Defensive line and linebackers will have to be the difference, if Pittsburgh's gonna win....What I don't understand is the 45 over/under when you have the 2 best defenses in football   I lok for a 21-17 game either way....ofcourse I'm hoping it's the Packer's way...

Like you said, the line obviously shows that the packers are favored.  And if the Packers have their way, they will score which the total represents.

 
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Posted: #67
Imagine betting on the superbowl in 1972---the only info we had was what we read in the newspapers! Flash forward to 2011 we now have the internet ,which allows us way more info than we can handle---we are more inside the game than we were in 1972 but are we any smarter? the books have always been ahead of the pack--because we must follow--and they must lead---who says we can't break the books--this is the year we come close---you can see which way they are steering you---don't get suckered---go with the gut .......remember 1925......
 
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Posted: #68
Wow just read the previous posts---after I posted--and I truly believe this is a mind blower--------------why?------look at the numbers 1925 they equal 7(why1925) because that is the year the pottsville maroons won ---hands down---the nfl championship---nobody on this site can argue this point unless they read the "breaker boys" the best football story ever told.Back to the point ---1+9=0   bear with me (no pun intended) 2+ 5=7.....the only TWO ORGANIZATIONS who voted the pottsville maroons for the 1925 nfl champs (who by the way defeated the four hourseman of norte dame) was the philadelphia eagles and the pittsburgh steelers--the fucking packers took a dime and said noooo----fuck them---without lombardi they are just another wanna be maroons---GO STEELERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #69
Oh back to the numbers --steelers in the seventh superbowl ,1925 does equal up to seven-the maroons have been up for the nfl championship 7  times and Ibelieve the steelers will win by seven__thatttttts all folks
 
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Posted: #70
its a trick to get steeler money, if this was even to start pack $$ would come pouring in, they wanted equal action from the start and seem to be getting it.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

great avatar Ed

yes hard not to see value on the steelers for what they have done
for me, its hard to see any NFL team win 7 super bowls

I think this could be Rodgers time..



Yup.....Best avatar I seen so far.Ed's is #1
 
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Posted: #72
Week 15 last year these guys passed on each other all day for a combined 848 yards and 73 points.Any chance that was a sneak preview to this year's game?
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Uneek:

hey yo-yo's.....the last thing the books want is a push....line will never go to 3, but the late money is going on the steelers and the line will drop to 1.5 by gametime.......take the steelers....bet your grandma  !!!!!!!!!!!!



Some books have moved it to +3
 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



A Vegas sportsbook, for example, wants equal action on both sides because they want to EARN their profit.  They don't want to WIN your money, they want to EARN their commission.

Below is a clip from an article written by casino owner Bob Stupak, that appeared in the January 1983 issue of Gambling Times:

"The second thing people don't realize is that a casino does NOT make its profits by winning money.  For example, a fellow came into Vegas Word with $28,000.00 a few Saturdays ago, and lost it in about 10 minutes.  Now, we didn't earn that money.  We just won it.  We were gambling and we got lucky.  But I can't survive on WON money.  I can only survive on EARNED money.  That guy's $28,000.00 is just in ESCROW.  Sooner or later somebody is going to come in and win it back.  

Everyday some people win and some people lose.  One day per week or month there might be more winning bets than losing bets, but in the long run they even out.  The only thing the casino EARNS is the money it retains from winning bettors by paying them slightly less than true odds."

Earlier I said that even if the books had a crystal ball and KNEW the final score, (let's say Pittsburgh won by a TD) they would STILL make Green Bay a slight favorite, no matter what the actual final score.  One or more people questioned that statement.  I stand by it.  The books want to EARN their profits.  They don't want to win your money.  If they win it, as explained above, someone is going to just win it right back, probably next week.  Books can't survive on won money, only earned money.

Books want equal action on both sides, (and as much action as possible) for one reason... they want to EARN their profit by collection the juice from the winning bettors.  (And yes, it's the winners that pay the juice, not the losers.)

Right now, with the line holding at GB -2.5, it means the books are getting equal action on both sides.  If not, the line would again move, one way or another.  I read statements in this and other fourms like, "The books are begging for Steeler money."  Not true.  Not now.  If they were "begging" for Steeler money, they'd move the line to 3.  Right now the books just want your money on either team.  The more money they collect, the more profit for them.  And yes, the want equal action or as close to it as possible.

 

Excellent post Ed !!   The Vegas books make teams favorites even when they think the other team will win because that will generate a 50-50 split.

Vegas books today are run by corparations, and they only care about 1 thing, a profit, they don't take risk by gambling with more money on 1 team.

A vegas sportsbook makes very little money, the idea is to draw in fans who'll spend far more money in the casino which is the bread and butter of the casino operation. 

 
 
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Posted: #75

I can say from my experiences making fairly large bets in the NFL Playoffs, a ticker writer could not take some of my bets, he would get the sportsbook manager who first would have to go check and see if he could take the entire amount without moving the line.

One such case the manager took my bet and before I left the counter the line was moved a half point off the key number of 7, up to 7.5 and I had bet the favorite.

My bet had been made at a time when there was already alot of money on the favorite and my money caused the line to move.

This manager had never seen me before in his life and had no clue if I was a sharp or square yet my money moved the line and I've done this a number of times.

I know in my mind from my experiences that books want a 50-50 split and they move the line because of money.

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