Why the Saints? Why the Chiefs?

It should be an easy, point-blank question that I seldom see any answers or explanations to on here.

I've admittedly stopped posting write-ups, partially because of time but mostly because of a severe lack of feedback/debate which is the original meaning of a forum. I do personal write-ups for every game as if they were going to be made public and debated. This forces me to logically organize, separate, and analyze the vast amount of information consumed. It also forces me to anticipate and answer any counterarguments.

Being a firm believer in the saying, "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity", I feel without the ability to make a sound, fully researched, and coherent "case" for one side, total, etc... or the other (whether right or wrong) and have answers to legitimate counterarguments you are not handicapping, you are flipping a coin and hoping for the best. If you can't answer "why" whether it be matchups, statistics, or some other form of relevant reasoning, why would you even get to the how much question?

With all that said let's hear the case(s) for either team... 

Chiefs and Under 

@jizzy66

Haha... About what I expected. I do agree with at least half of that prediction at this point.

Under 43.5 x2

The Chiefs will play without three weapons and can only stay in the game if they play DEF. I expect them to mix it up and keep running the ball with Perine and Hunt to open up for Worthy and Kelce. Mahomes will not throw the ball deep, which he has not done all year with his receiving core.

Chiefs -5 x1

The Saints might win this outright, or lose by a touchdown. I don’t expect the Vikings to be the only team without a loss, So I’m going with the Chiefs at Home. Their weapons aren’t that great if the Chiefs take out Olave. Shaheed is down for a quiet night in a loud stadium. 

Have not most the teams this season…. With significant injuries to ‘starter’ players…. I think most have done very well… Dallas for example.   I have not kept track… but my mental notes say they tend to do better than expected.    This is a great opportunity for one of the younger chiefs receiver to have a great game… and it’s not like they were notified of this on Friday.     So all week of practice…. The chiefs with anything more than -3 is risky though.   They have a tendency to win it late.  

Chiefs -5.5 and under 43.5.

Getting Chiefs at less than a td to cover at home is a gift if I've ever seen one. Regardless of injuries they still have the best playmaker in the NFL and are defending champs playing at Arrowhead. Major advantage there. I see Saints starting out strong while the Chiefs take some time to gel in the 1st half with their missing weapons on offense. Saints lead at halftime and then Chiefs defense shuts them out 2nd half. Saints 13-3 1H. Final score 24-13 Chiefs.

I agree with the Chiefs, but I'm not sold on the Total either way. I'm holding off to see if I can get a five at one of my outs. 

For me, it comes down to injuries but not the high-profile, skill position ones most want to talk about. The Saints are completely decimated on the interior offensive line with injuries to multiple centers and guards. This is problematic for a team that relies on the run to establish the play-action, over-the-top explosives they thrive on. And against a Chiefs team with Chris Jones lining up over that same patchwork interior, it could be devastating. Center is one of the most underrated positions in the NFL because of, amongst other things, their communication responsibilities. Because of a rash of injuries at the position, they are going on the road, in a loud, hostile Arrowhead with a center they just signed from the Jets practice squad that was recently pondering retirement and hasn't played a game in over a year. DC Spagnuolo will exploit this weakness.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints' linebacking corps is also decimated with two of the starting three missing. The one starter that is playing tonight is just returning from injury. For a team that has had problems with tight ends (see recent game vs Goedert and multiple 2023 games vs top-notch tight ends) running into the Chiefs, who are sure to feature Kelce more with their injuries, could be a major issue.   

Add in, a dome team built for speed outside on natural grass, Kansas City easily having the better of the two quarterbacks, and an overall physical advantage (especially in the trenches) in the Chiefs' favor, and I don't see the Saints keeping up.     

In general I’m bearish on the Chiefs for the season…….but lean to laying points in this matchup.    Saints are really banged up on their OLine .    They’re starting a center they just signed off the Jets practice squad.   Chiefs D line should have a significant advantage tonight 

Saints are hungry for winners. They wanna stop 2 games losing streak. They like to play on prime time. They are matching up well against KC offensive and defensive. This is the game KC will goes down.

@Ilovefootballs

 English please.

lol.

The Saints are hungry to win games. They wanted to stop the two-game losing streak. They also like to play on prime time. They are matching up well against the KC offense and defense. This is the game I think KC will lose to the Saints.

Can you expand on exactly what matchups you see as favorable for the Saints? Especially offensively? 

Saints are balanced on the offense with running and throwing the ball. This kind of attack KC defense is not up against very good to stop a team like the Saints offensively. The KC defense won't stop the dual threats like the saint's offense. 

I'm still not sure what matchup you see that the Saints can exploit...  What I will say is that if the Saints' backfield is consistently occupied by 300-pounders wearing red, a scenario likely due to injuries and the Chiefs' formidable defensive line, then the Saints will have problems establishing anything on the ground or in the air offensively.

@fade_the_mush

Winners congrats