Wild Card Round Info

Buffalo’s offense is playing on another level right now, but the Colts should be able to stick around with an offense that has scored at least 24 points in eight straight.  OV 52

the Bills

are 0-6 SU in their last 6 playoff games dating back to 1996, not to
mention 1-10 ATS in the playoffs when coming off an ATS win of 7 or
more points. The Colts enter 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS in the postseason
versus foes coming off an ATS win of 8 or more points, including 6-2
ATS as a dog. Meanwhile, QB Philip Rivers is 6-2 ATS as a playoff dog,
and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in his career against the Bills. The well-oiled

machine steps in, noting that playoff road dogs coming off a win-no-
cover in its last game are 21-9-3 ATS since 1994, including 18-4-2

ATS when taking more than 3 points, including 9-1-1 ATS versus
greater than .750 foes.

@RLeith35

Hey Doctor B...thanks, first and foremost, for all the great stats and information you provide!

So, for the NFC PLAYOFFS...just gonna have fun here with the NFL/WWE entertainment angle to the playoffs, because quite a few people believe scripts are being written as we speak to "couch" or "suggest" what the guys in stripes should be looking for to achieve the desired results.  So I'm down with that for purposes of this, just not sure what the "desired results" are, yet:

So #1 The Pack is home after this weekend's zoom pageantry and games.

#2 The Saints gonna come marchin' in...true dat!

Now...what drama and story lines do we want to add to the legacy of the NFL?

Gotta be Tampa Bay in the mix for sure, being the site of the SUPE...and last but not least...do we want/need the glitz and glamor of LA...with the QB position severely limited...or do we go with "Russ: The Story Continues"?  

Let's take a look at the pairings to search for a hint or a clue.

#1 GB vs. #5 TB  --- A NATURAL with TWO of the GREATS!!!

#2 NO vs. #3 SEA --- SHOOTOUT in THE BIG EASY

Or, do we want:

#1 GB vs. #6 LAR ---  LAR with a compromised QB situation on the frozen tundra of Lambeau?

#2 NO vs. #5 TB  ---  Can The Saints make it 3-in-a-row over TB12 and The Bucs in 2020?

Some compelling story lines for sure...AND everyone still needs to deal this weekend with "the spread", so BOLTA with that!!!

Cheers, Doctor B  

This AFC interdivisional grudge match kicks off wild-card weekend. The Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) snuck into the playoffs as the No. 7
seed, needing a win against the Jaguars (28-14) in Week 17 and a Dolphins loss to the Bills to punch their ticket to the postseason.
Indianapolis won four of its last five games and finished with +89 in point differential. Meanwhile, the Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS) tied for the
second-best record in the NFL and enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed. Buffalo has won six straight and just crushed Miami 56-26,
winning outright as a 3-point home dog. The Bills won the AFC East and finished +126 in point differential. This line opened with Buffalo
as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over the Bills, who look like a juggernaut. However, despite more than two-thirds of bets
laying the points, we’ve seen this line drop to 6.5. This sharp reverse-line movement signals pro money grabbing the Colts +7. Wild-card
dogs getting 7 points or fewer are roughly 58% ATS over the last decade. Playoff dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their
favor are 57% ATS. The Colts also are one of the top contrarian plays of the weekend as the public is loading up on Buffalo. We’ve also
seen some Under liability. The public is hammering the Over, yet the total has remained frozen at 52 or dipped slightly to 51.5. Both
teams were profitable to the Over during the regular season (Colts 9-7, Bills 11-4-1). But outdoor playoff Unders have cashed roughly
57% over the last decade.

HOME TEAMS have won six in a row SU & five straight ATS in IND-BU h2h series and are 10-3-1 ATS since ‘98

This NFC West showdown is the middle game of Saturday’s tripleheader. The Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) squeaked into the playoffs
as the No. 6 seed, beating the Cardinals 18-7 as 1-point home favorites in Week 17. Los Angeles finished +76 in point differential.
The Rams will lean on the coaching on Sean McVay and their stellar defense as they once again turn to rookie quarterback John
Wolford in place of injured Jared Goff. Wolford won his debut over Arizona last week, throwing for 231 yards, no touchdowns
and one interception and rushing for 56 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) finished on a high note, winning
four straight and beating the 49ers 26-23 in Week 17, though they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Seattle won the NFC
West and earned the No. 3 seed, finishing +88 in point differential. This line opened with Seattle as a 4.5-point home favorite.
This public is laying the short spread with Russell Wilson at home. However, we’ve seen a sharp move to the road dog, with the

Rams falling from +4.5 to +4. Some shops are even touching 3.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor of at least a half-
point are roughly 75% ATS over the last decade. The Rams also have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total. The

total has dipped slightly from 43 to 42.5. Both of these teams were profitable to the Under this season, with the Rams 12-4 and
Seahawks 9-7. Referee John Hussey historically has favored Unders (57%). Outdoor playoff Unders are roughly 57% over the
last decade. The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9 in Week 16 after losing 23-16 in the first meeting in Week 10.

The L3 meetings of the LAR-SEA divisional rivalry have resulted in HOME FAVORITE wins SU & ATS, and UNDER’s

This prime-time nonconference matchup is the late game on Saturday. Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay played its best football down the stretch, winning its final four games
and waxing the Falcons 44-27 in Week 17, easily covering as a 7-point home favorite. The Bucs enter as the No. 5 seed after
finishing +137 in point differential. Meanwhile, Washington (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snuck into the playoffs by beating the Eagles
20-14 in Week 17, though they failed to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite. Washington went 5-2 down the stretch and won
the NFC East, earning the No. 4 seed. This line opened with the Bucs as hefty 7.5-point or 8-point road favorites. The public
is absolutely hammering Brady and the Bucs, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided action moved the line to Tampa
-9. That’s when we saw some buyback on Washington, dropping the line back to 8.5. Washington is your top contrarian play
of the weekend as they are receiving only about one-third of bets in a prime-time game. Big playoff dogs of +7 or more are
roughly 57% ATS over the last decade. Tampa Bay is in prime teaser territory. If you drop them from -8.5 to -2.5, you pass
through two key numbers (7 and 3). We’ve also seen some Under money show up, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. The
Bucs are 9-7 to the Over this season, but Washington is 10-5-1 to the Under. This under matches a pair of profitable playoff
systems: outdoor Unders and wild-card Unders that drop (roughly 60% over the last decade).

WASHINGTON is 10-4-1 ATS(L15G) - with Starting QB - SMITH
• TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - On Saturday
• WASHINGTON is 5-0 UNDER(CS) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.10 yards per attempt

ROAD TEAMS are on a 4-2 SU & 5-0-1 ATS run in TB-WAS, however this will be first road favorite in series since ‘05 (9 games)

This early Sunday showdown is a rematch of last year’s divisional-round matchup, which saw sixth-seeded Tennessee shock top-
seeded Baltimore 30-24. The Ravens (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) caught fire down the stretch this season, winning their last five games

to earn the No. 5 seed. They crushed Cincinnati 38-3 in Week 17, easily covering as 13.5-point road favorites. The Ravens finished
with a +165 point differential, best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Titans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) won the AFC South and went 3-1 down the
stretch, earning the No. 4 seed. Tennessee won a 41-38 thriller over Houston in Week 17, though they failed to cover as 7-point road
favorites. The Titans finished +52 in point differential. This line opened with Baltimore as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is laying
the points with the red-hot Ravens, yet we’ve seen this line fall to the key number of 3. This is a classic example of sharp reverse-line
movement, with pros scooping up Tennessee plus the hook (+3.5) and forcing oddsmakers to drop this line in their favor. Tennessee
has value as a contrarian home dog and a playoff dog with a line move in their favor (75% ATS the last decade). We’ve also seen
playoff dogs of +7 or less cover roughly 59% or less in the wild-card round over the last decade. Pros and Joes seem to be united
on this Over, driving the total up slightly from 54.5 to 55. Referee Jerome Boger has been profitable for home teams (56% ATS) and
Overs (60%). The Titans were the top Over team in the regular season (12-3-1). The Ravens were 7-9 to the Under.

BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS(L7G) on ROAD - 2nd game of the season vs opponent
• TENNESSEE is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - [vs OPP] On winning streak of 4 or more games
• TENNESSEE is 43-17-1 OVER(L61G) at HOME - [vs OPP] After a conference SU win

BALTIMORE is on an 8-3 ATS run at Tennessee and UNDERDOGS are 17-5-1 ATS in this h2h series since ‘96

This NFC late-afternoon Sunday clash features the biggest spread of wild-card weekend. The Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed
by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the
seventh seed, thanks to a tiebreaker over Arizona. The Bears finished +2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams

ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-
best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as a

6-point road favorite. The Saints finished +145 in point differential, best in the NFC. This line opened with New Orleans as a
9.5-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed
the line to the key number of 10. We’ve seen some buyback on the Bears at +10, with juice hinting toward a possible drop back
to 9.5. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of +7 or more are roughly 57% ATS
in the last decade. We’ve also seen some Under money hit the market, dropping the total from 47.5 to 47. The Saints were 10-6 to
the Over this season, with Chicago 8-8. Playoff dome game Overs are roughly 70% over the last decade.

NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS(L10Y) - After a blowout SU win of 20 points or more
• CHICAGO is 4-21 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per point
• NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 OVER(L10G) at HOME - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per point

NEW ORLEANS has won six straight games vs. Chicago, going 5-1 ATS, and is 5-0-1 ATS hosting Bears since ‘92

This Sunday night showdown caps wild-card weekend. The Browns (11-5 SU, 6-10 ATS) enter as the No. 6 seed, returning to the playoffs
for the first time since 2002. Cleveland finished with a -11 point differential, the worst of any playoff team this season. The Steelers (12-4
SU, 10-6 ATS) started 11-0 but stumbled down the stretch, going 1-4. Still, Pittsburgh earned the No. 3 seed and finished with a +104
point differential. These teams met last week, with the Browns winning 24-22 but the Steelers covering as 10-point road dogs. Pittsburgh
rested most of their starters, including Ben Roethlisberger. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros
targeted the Steelers early, driving this line up to -4.5. But then on Tuesday morning news broke that coach Kevin Stefanski and several
other coaches and players tested positive for COVID-19. As a result, this line skyrocketed to Steelers -6. It may rise even further if new
positives pop up. When a line moves at least 1 point toward a team in the playoffs, those teams have covered at a 58% clip over the
last decade. Pittsburgh will be a very popular teaser play this weekend, as you could move the Steelers from -6 down to a pick-’em.
Cleveland has value as a contrarian divisional dog in a prime-time game with an inflated line. We’ve also seen Over money flood the
market following the COVID news, driving the total from 46.5 to 47.5. Wild-card unders are roughly 64% over the last decade, with
outdoor Unders roughly 57%. The Browns were 9-7 to the Over this season, with the Steelers 8-7-1.

PITTSBURGH is 6-1 ATS(L7G) - Revenging a loss vs - CLEVELAND
• CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS(L15G) - Conference games
• PITTSBURGH is 13-1-1 OVER(L15G) at HOME - In January

PITTSBURGH has won 17 straight games hosting Cleveland, going 11-5-1 ATS, including 38-7 decision in October

First-time playoff coaches have been
much more successful in recent years
than quarterbacks and are current ly
on a 7-1 SU and ATS run over the last
three seasons when not matched up
against another rookie head coach.
Only Chicago’s Matt Nagy lost his first
playoff game in that timeframe, 16-15 as a
home favorite against Philadelphia in 2018.

The Browns qualify for both of these situations
with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and Kevin
Stefanski as coach. John Wolford also would
qualify as quarterback of the Rams should he
be called upon Saturday.

Quarterbacks in their first playoff
game are just 15-36 SU and 14-36-1
ATS (28%) since ’04 when matched up

against an opposing QB NOT in his
first playoff game. This experience factor
comes into play most in games with point

spreads in the +3 to -3 range, as these first-
time QBs are just 4-21 SU and 3-21-1 ATS

(12.5%) in those games.

so regardless of the point spread,
if you can’t see the team you’re betting on
winning the game, you’re better off not
trying to sneak a cover in, even though
three games are showing point spreads of 7
points or more.
• As noted earlier, road teams seem to have
definitively regained the edge in this round
in recent years, going 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS
over the last three seasons. Looking back
even further, if you take away the home SU
and ATS sweep of 2017, the visitors are on
an 18-5-1 ATS surge.
• Underdogs are on a run of 10-3-1 ATS in the
last 14 NFC wild-card games.
• Wild-card road favorites have become
increasingly common in recent playoff
seasons as there have been 13 in the last
12 seasons. Those teams are 8-5 SU and
6-6-1 ATS. For 2021, we have two of them,
as Tampa Bay is a heavy 8-point favorite at
Washington on Saturday and Baltimore is
a 3.5-point road favorite at Tennessee in a
rematch of the Titans’ massive playoff upset
a year ago.