Home favorites of a touchdown or more in the wild-card round are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2005, though Minnesota did win in New Orleans (-7) last January. • There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the last 24 Saturday games, home teams are 17-11 SU and 16-11-1 ATS. In that same span, home teams are 13-15 SU and 10-17-1 ATS on Sundays. • Including two wins last year, NFC road teams have been terrific on Sundays, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19. Under the total is also 14-5 in those games. Chicago will test those trends at New Orleans on Sunday. • In the 12 wild-card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 9-3 ATS edge (6-6 SU). Two of this weekend’s six games are divisional matchups — Rams-Seahawks on Saturday and Browns-Steelers on Sunday.
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Home favorites of a touchdown or more in the wild-card round are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2005, though Minnesota did win in New Orleans (-7) last January. • There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the last 24 Saturday games, home teams are 17-11 SU and 16-11-1 ATS. In that same span, home teams are 13-15 SU and 10-17-1 ATS on Sundays. • Including two wins last year, NFC road teams have been terrific on Sundays, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19. Under the total is also 14-5 in those games. Chicago will test those trends at New Orleans on Sunday. • In the 12 wild-card matchups between divisional opponents since 2003, road teams own a 9-3 ATS edge (6-6 SU). Two of this weekend’s six games are divisional matchups — Rams-Seahawks on Saturday and Browns-Steelers on Sunday.
WILD-CARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER • No. 4 seeds are on a 17-11 SU and 16-10-2 ATS run over the last 14 wild-card seasons. This year’s No. 4 seeds are Tennessee in the AFC and Washington in the NFC, both home underdogs. Interestingly, the last 10 home dogs in the No. 4 seed have split their games outright while going 6-3-1 ATS.
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WILD-CARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER • No. 4 seeds are on a 17-11 SU and 16-10-2 ATS run over the last 14 wild-card seasons. This year’s No. 4 seeds are Tennessee in the AFC and Washington in the NFC, both home underdogs. Interestingly, the last 10 home dogs in the No. 4 seed have split their games outright while going 6-3-1 ATS.
Of the 16 No. 6-vs.-No. 3 wild-card matchups over the last eight seasons, Under the total is 15-0-1! This year ’s 6-3 matchups are L.A . Rams-Seatt le and Cleveland-Pittsburgh. For the record, road teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the series as well. • Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the No. 4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS over the last 15 seasons. That’s Tennessee this year. • No. 3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3-point favorite have lost nine straight games outright while going 1-8 ATS, scoring just 12.7 points per game. Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point favorite as of this writing, but you never know how the lines might shift as kickoff approaches. WILD-CARD TRENDS FOR TOTALS • Under has dominated over the last six years, 24-7-1, including six straight.
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Of the 16 No. 6-vs.-No. 3 wild-card matchups over the last eight seasons, Under the total is 15-0-1! This year ’s 6-3 matchups are L.A . Rams-Seatt le and Cleveland-Pittsburgh. For the record, road teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the series as well. • Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the No. 4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS over the last 15 seasons. That’s Tennessee this year. • No. 3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3-point favorite have lost nine straight games outright while going 1-8 ATS, scoring just 12.7 points per game. Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point favorite as of this writing, but you never know how the lines might shift as kickoff approaches. WILD-CARD TRENDS FOR TOTALS • Under has dominated over the last six years, 24-7-1, including six straight.
The common pattern in the last 10 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 20- 3-2! Home teams scored just 14.4 points per game in those road wins. • Of the last 25 wild-card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 19-5-1. The last six games with totals of 48 or higher went Under. Three of this year’s six games fit that bill. • Those wild-card games with totals lower than 44 are only 8-7 Under in the last 15. Five straight games with closing totals below 40 went Over the total, although totals that low are now very rare in the NFL, and as of Tuesday, the lowest number shown for this weekend was 42.5.
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The common pattern in the last 10 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, Under the total has a record of 20- 3-2! Home teams scored just 14.4 points per game in those road wins. • Of the last 25 wild-card games with totals of 44 or higher, Under the total is 19-5-1. The last six games with totals of 48 or higher went Under. Three of this year’s six games fit that bill. • Those wild-card games with totals lower than 44 are only 8-7 Under in the last 15. Five straight games with closing totals below 40 went Over the total, although totals that low are now very rare in the NFL, and as of Tuesday, the lowest number shown for this weekend was 42.5.
Of the last 28 Sunday wild-card games, 21 have gone Under the total. Of the 26 Saturday games, Under the total is just 13- 12-1. • In games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a 16-7-1 run. FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES Sharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 26-15 SU and 25-15-1 ATS in the last 41 wild-card playoff games that moved off their opening number, good for 62.5% ATS. This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position toward either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team. Although these moves were only 1-3 SU and ATS last year, for 2021, early
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Of the last 28 Sunday wild-card games, 21 have gone Under the total. Of the 26 Saturday games, Under the total is just 13- 12-1. • In games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a 16-7-1 run. FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES Sharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 26-15 SU and 25-15-1 ATS in the last 41 wild-card playoff games that moved off their opening number, good for 62.5% ATS. This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position toward either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team. Although these moves were only 1-3 SU and ATS last year, for 2021, early
action was favoring Buffalo, L.A. Rams, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. Nearly equally advantageous, sharp bettors have fared well on totals in wild-card games. Over the last 12 wild-card playoff seasons, bettors are 24-16 (60%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves leading up to kickoff. Again, although just 1-3 in 2020, for this weekend, the totals were fairly stable early, but there was noticeable upward movement on the Indianapolis-Buffalo and Baltimore-Tennessee games in the AFC and consensus downward movement in the Tampa Bay-Washington game.
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action was favoring Buffalo, L.A. Rams, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. Nearly equally advantageous, sharp bettors have fared well on totals in wild-card games. Over the last 12 wild-card playoff seasons, bettors are 24-16 (60%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves leading up to kickoff. Again, although just 1-3 in 2020, for this weekend, the totals were fairly stable early, but there was noticeable upward movement on the Indianapolis-Buffalo and Baltimore-Tennessee games in the AFC and consensus downward movement in the Tampa Bay-Washington game.
STATS GENERATED IN WILD-CARD PLAYOFF GAMES • Only two home teams that have topped the 20-point mark have lost in the last 19 years of wild-card action, going 38-2 SU and 31-8-1 ATS. Incidentally, those teams were Pittsburgh in 2008 and Kansas City in 2018. Not coincidentally, Houston was the only home winner a year ago, and the only home team to top 20 points, in a 22-19 win over Buffalo. • Only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wild-card game have won in the last 16 years, going 3-32 SU and 3-31-1 ATS. Those winners were San Diego, which beat Tennessee 17-6 in ’08, Houston in 2013, a 19-13 winner over Cincinnati, and Jacksonville, which held off Buffalo 10-2 in 2018. As you handicap this year’s games, it is crucial to consider whether or not the host team can score 21+ points.
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STATS GENERATED IN WILD-CARD PLAYOFF GAMES • Only two home teams that have topped the 20-point mark have lost in the last 19 years of wild-card action, going 38-2 SU and 31-8-1 ATS. Incidentally, those teams were Pittsburgh in 2008 and Kansas City in 2018. Not coincidentally, Houston was the only home winner a year ago, and the only home team to top 20 points, in a 22-19 win over Buffalo. • Only three home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wild-card game have won in the last 16 years, going 3-32 SU and 3-31-1 ATS. Those winners were San Diego, which beat Tennessee 17-6 in ’08, Houston in 2013, a 19-13 winner over Cincinnati, and Jacksonville, which held off Buffalo 10-2 in 2018. As you handicap this year’s games, it is crucial to consider whether or not the host team can score 21+ points.
The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams falling short of that in the wild-card round are 2-23 SU and ATS since ’02. Seattle in ’16 and Philadelphia in ’19, were the only outright winners. Road teams reaching that total were 38-11-2 ATS in that same span. • Teams that gain more first downs are 29-10- 1 ATS in the last 10 wild-card rounds. • Teams that win the time-of-possession battle are on a 42-18 SU and 41-17-2 ATS run in wild-card games. • Wild-card teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 36-12 SU and 33-13-2 ATS over the last 12 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wild-card game are just 27- 21 SU and 25-22-1 ATS in that same span. • Putting up big passing numbers in wild-card games has not guaranteed success in the last seven wild-card seasons, with those teams going 22-14 SU and 22-13-1 ATS. Teams
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The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams falling short of that in the wild-card round are 2-23 SU and ATS since ’02. Seattle in ’16 and Philadelphia in ’19, were the only outright winners. Road teams reaching that total were 38-11-2 ATS in that same span. • Teams that gain more first downs are 29-10- 1 ATS in the last 10 wild-card rounds. • Teams that win the time-of-possession battle are on a 42-18 SU and 41-17-2 ATS run in wild-card games. • Wild-card teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 36-12 SU and 33-13-2 ATS over the last 12 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wild-card game are just 27- 21 SU and 25-22-1 ATS in that same span. • Putting up big passing numbers in wild-card games has not guaranteed success in the last seven wild-card seasons, with those teams going 22-14 SU and 22-13-1 ATS. Teams
Wild-card teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 26-22 SU and 22-25-1 ATS over the last 12 seasons in this round. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who have held the edge in this category are 24-22 SU and 20-25-1 ATS over the last 12 seasons. Usually this statistic is more important. • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 29-19 SU and 27-20-1 ATS in the wild-card round since ‘08. However, they were 0-4 SU and ATS last season. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were several games worse at 26-22 SU and 22-25-1 ATS. • Wild-card teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those that allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wild-card games at a 24-24 SU and 24- 23-1 ATS rate over the last 12 seasons.
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Wild-card teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just 26-22 SU and 22-25-1 ATS over the last 12 seasons in this round. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who have held the edge in this category are 24-22 SU and 20-25-1 ATS over the last 12 seasons. Usually this statistic is more important. • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 29-19 SU and 27-20-1 ATS in the wild-card round since ‘08. However, they were 0-4 SU and ATS last season. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were several games worse at 26-22 SU and 22-25-1 ATS. • Wild-card teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those that allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wild-card games at a 24-24 SU and 24- 23-1 ATS rate over the last 12 seasons.
Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 26-17 SU and 24-18-1 ATS run since ’08 in wild-card playoff games. • Teams that stopped third-downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 24-40 SU and 24-23- 1 ATS in the last 48 wild-card games, thus proving to be another insignificant factor in handicapping these games. PLAYOFF DROUGHT SYSTEMS There are a few systems to consider based on how recently teams have been in the playoffs.
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Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 26-17 SU and 24-18-1 ATS run since ’08 in wild-card playoff games. • Teams that stopped third-downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 24-40 SU and 24-23- 1 ATS in the last 48 wild-card games, thus proving to be another insignificant factor in handicapping these games. PLAYOFF DROUGHT SYSTEMS There are a few systems to consider based on how recently teams have been in the playoffs.
Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 8-15 SU and ATS over the last eight seasons and 20- 36-1 ATS since ’04. But as luck would have it, those teams did go 4-1 SU and ATS last year. The teams for this year that weren’t in the playoffs last year are Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. • On the road these “drought” teams are an ugly 4-17 SU and 4-16-1 ATS since ’07, all wild-card games. At home the teams are 15-12 SU and 14-13 ATS, with wins by both San Francisco and Green Bay last season. For 2021, five of the seven drought teams are on the road while two, Washington and Pittsburgh, are at home.
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Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 8-15 SU and ATS over the last eight seasons and 20- 36-1 ATS since ’04. But as luck would have it, those teams did go 4-1 SU and ATS last year. The teams for this year that weren’t in the playoffs last year are Indianapolis, L.A. Rams, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. • On the road these “drought” teams are an ugly 4-17 SU and 4-16-1 ATS since ’07, all wild-card games. At home the teams are 15-12 SU and 14-13 ATS, with wins by both San Francisco and Green Bay last season. For 2021, five of the seven drought teams are on the road while two, Washington and Pittsburgh, are at home.
In the last 11 wild-card games matching teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year, home teams are 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS since ’06. This powerful system will be in play for two games in 2021: the Tampa Bay-Washington and Cleveland-Pittsburgh games.
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In the last 11 wild-card games matching teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year, home teams are 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS since ’06. This powerful system will be in play for two games in 2021: the Tampa Bay-Washington and Cleveland-Pittsburgh games.
The BILLS -6.5 (-115) have been money at home, with their last non-cover coming in Week 8 against New England in a 24-21 win as four-point favorites, and their last outright loss coming in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals on the Hail Murray, 32-30.
Even without their throngs of fans at full throat, Bills Stadium has been a difficult place to play. They’ll have a limited amount of fans in the stands Saturday to help spur them on.
These are a couple of high-flying offenses, and they should put on a show in the opening game of the 2020 NFL playoffs. However, the lean is to the UNDER 51.5 (-115).
In last season’s wild-card round the Under was a perfect 4-0, and the Under is hitting at a 75.8 percent clip (22-7-3) across the wild-card round in the past eight seasons. That’s good enough for me to keep banging Under plays. By Sportsbookwire
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The BILLS -6.5 (-115) have been money at home, with their last non-cover coming in Week 8 against New England in a 24-21 win as four-point favorites, and their last outright loss coming in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals on the Hail Murray, 32-30.
Even without their throngs of fans at full throat, Bills Stadium has been a difficult place to play. They’ll have a limited amount of fans in the stands Saturday to help spur them on.
These are a couple of high-flying offenses, and they should put on a show in the opening game of the 2020 NFL playoffs. However, the lean is to the UNDER 51.5 (-115).
In last season’s wild-card round the Under was a perfect 4-0, and the Under is hitting at a 75.8 percent clip (22-7-3) across the wild-card round in the past eight seasons. That’s good enough for me to keep banging Under plays. By Sportsbookwire
The Colts are 11-5, but just 3-5 when an opponent scores 24 points or more points, with four of their five losses coming by seven or more. The Bills, meanwhile, have been held to fewer than 24 points only three times all season, with none of those instances coming after Week 7.
Philip Rivers has struggled mightily in the second half this season:
He’s spent most of his career playing in the warm weather of Southern California and then the dome in Indy, so these struggles could be exacerbated in the cold weather of Buffalo.
The Bills are top-five in second-half scoring (14.8), including first over the last three weeks (23.0) and are playing top-10 run defense, so the Colts aren’t in a good spot to rely on the familiar formula of leaning on Jonathan Taylor. By Actionnetwork
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The Colts are 11-5, but just 3-5 when an opponent scores 24 points or more points, with four of their five losses coming by seven or more. The Bills, meanwhile, have been held to fewer than 24 points only three times all season, with none of those instances coming after Week 7.
Philip Rivers has struggled mightily in the second half this season:
He’s spent most of his career playing in the warm weather of Southern California and then the dome in Indy, so these struggles could be exacerbated in the cold weather of Buffalo.
The Bills are top-five in second-half scoring (14.8), including first over the last three weeks (23.0) and are playing top-10 run defense, so the Colts aren’t in a good spot to rely on the familiar formula of leaning on Jonathan Taylor. By Actionnetwork
Of the 16 No. 6-vs.-No. 3 wild-card matchups over the last eight seasons, Under the total is 15-0-1! This year ’s 6-3 matchups are L.A . Rams-Seatt le and Cleveland-Pittsburgh. For the record, road teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the series as well. • Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the No. 4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS over the last 15 seasons. That’s Tennessee this year.
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Of the 16 No. 6-vs.-No. 3 wild-card matchups over the last eight seasons, Under the total is 15-0-1! This year ’s 6-3 matchups are L.A . Rams-Seatt le and Cleveland-Pittsburgh. For the record, road teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the series as well. • Nothing else considered, in blanket wagering, the No. 4 AFC seed has been the best home betting option of the four choices, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS over the last 15 seasons. That’s Tennessee this year.
Tom Brady has faced the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the league. That could change this week as he goes up against Washington’s front four.
It’s worth pointing out that Brady has ranked 32nd (out of 38 quarterbacks) in success rate when facing pressure this season. And the Football Team’s offense is unlikely to fare much better against a Bucs’ defense that ranks fifth in DVOA.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game and project the total at 43.5, so would bet it down to 44. Actionnetwork
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Tom Brady has faced the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the league. That could change this week as he goes up against Washington’s front four.
It’s worth pointing out that Brady has ranked 32nd (out of 38 quarterbacks) in success rate when facing pressure this season. And the Football Team’s offense is unlikely to fare much better against a Bucs’ defense that ranks fifth in DVOA.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game and project the total at 43.5, so would bet it down to 44. Actionnetwork
The home team is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the favorite has cashed in four of the last five meetings. The Bills are also a perfect 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games overall, are 4-0 against the number in their last four games as a favorite and are a near-perfect 6-1 at the betting window in their last seven games as a home favorite.
On the other side, the Colts are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games versus conference opponents, are 2-5 against the number in their last seven playoff road games and are 0-3-1 at the betting window in their last four games as an underdog.
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Colts vs. Bills Betting Prediction
The home team is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the favorite has cashed in four of the last five meetings. The Bills are also a perfect 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games overall, are 4-0 against the number in their last four games as a favorite and are a near-perfect 6-1 at the betting window in their last seven games as a home favorite.
On the other side, the Colts are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games versus conference opponents, are 2-5 against the number in their last seven playoff road games and are 0-3-1 at the betting window in their last four games as an underdog.
The under has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams in Buffalo and is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings overall. The under is also 4-1 in the Colts’ last five playoff games, is 13-6 in their last 19 games as a road underdog and is 6-1 in their last seven appearances Wild Card Weekend. On the other side, the under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last six games following a win of more than 14 points and is 4-1 in their last five games played in the month of January.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend Total Prediction
The under has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams in Buffalo and is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings overall. The under is also 4-1 in the Colts’ last five playoff games, is 13-6 in their last 19 games as a road underdog and is 6-1 in their last seven appearances Wild Card Weekend. On the other side, the under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last six games following a win of more than 14 points and is 4-1 in their last five games played in the month of January.
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