Wild card winners.

Question

Playoffs here!!!

I locked up just one bet so far, and gonna take my time with the other two. I'm not sure where to go yet, but my gut says Houston(waiting on injuries) and Miami(Pitt probably wins here, but too many points, and also waiting on injuries).

Early weather report for these games(things can obviously change in 5/6 days but here is basic idea of things):

Houston-Oakland. 55 degree sunny day. Beautiful football weather. Perfect weather!

Seattle-Detroit. 34-38 degrees. Rain almost 100%. Possibly very heavy rain. Possible slow/sleet/ice as well although my instinct says it stays rain as the PAC NW generally doesn't see much snow.

GB-NYG. Game time about 15 and brisk. Doesn't seem to be super windy which is key for Giant backers IMO, but looking to be very cold especially as the sun goes down.

Pitt-Miami. 20 degrees or so at kickoff. Cold and blustery in the stadium. Small advantage Pitt as the team who is NOT from So Fla?

My play so far:

Seattle -2.5/NYG +11. -120.

I have my fingers crossed that the wind isn't a factor in Lambeau as Eli is a disaster in wind and Rodgers has a advantage to begin with having the strong arm. In the case of a monsoon in Seattle, while neither team runs well, I give the advantage to Seattle where if it's a ground game because of the weather, Seattle is a top team stuffing the run, where Detroit can be run on a bit.

I'll be nwck later in the week for some more insight to my plays, and what else I played in the other games. I'm on a nice streak in bowl games and hit my 3 bowl game best bets for 2 units the last week or so(Florida/Baylor/NC State) and finished off a strong(if unspectacular season) of slow grind and a lot of 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, 2-2 kind of weeks, so I'm feeling good going into these playoff games. Not the best games(the AFC is particularly hideous with some bad or inexperienced QB's on half the teams, an okay Smith, and then Big Ben and Brady), but the NFC looks to make up for it. Dallas and their young guns, Ryan and explosive Atlanta, Rodgers red hot, Eli behind a great defense, Russell Wilson and the best up Seahawks, and finally a scrappy Lions team.

I'm tied for first in a bowl pool so between sweating that out in the final three games(have PN ST +7, Auburn +4, and I'm thinking of rolling with Clemson in the write-in game(no money bets on first two).....could very well come down to the final score tiebreaker in the national championship game to win my pool. So between that, and NFL playoffs, and I hurt my back at work a few weeks ago and out of work a few more weeks(not the end of the world as this is a great time of the year to be laid up), this is an exciting few weeks ahead of me!!

GL to all and interested in what the Covers regulars think of these games!

glyde69 · Answer

Playoffs here!!!

I locked up just one bet so far, and gonna take my time with the other two. I'm not sure where to go yet, but my gut says Houston(waiting on injuries) and Miami(Pitt probably wins here, but too many points, and also waiting on injuries).

Early weather report for these games(things can obviously change in 5/6 days but here is basic idea of things):

Houston-Oakland. 55 degree sunny day. Beautiful football weather. Perfect weather!

Seattle-Detroit. 34-38 degrees. Rain almost 100%. Possibly very heavy rain. Possible slow/sleet/ice as well although my instinct says it stays rain as the PAC NW generally doesn't see much snow.

GB-NYG. Game time about 15 and brisk. Doesn't seem to be super windy which is key for Giant backers IMO, but looking to be very cold especially as the sun goes down.

Pitt-Miami. 20 degrees or so at kickoff. Cold and blustery in the stadium. Small advantage Pitt as the team who is NOT from So Fla?

My play so far:

Seattle -2.5/NYG +11. -120.

I have my fingers crossed that the wind isn't a factor in Lambeau as Eli is a disaster in wind and Rodgers has a advantage to begin with having the strong arm. In the case of a monsoon in Seattle, while neither team runs well, I give the advantage to Seattle where if it's a ground game because of the weather, Seattle is a top team stuffing the run, where Detroit can be run on a bit.

I'll be nwck later in the week for some more insight to my plays, and what else I played in the other games. I'm on a nice streak in bowl games and hit my 3 bowl game best bets for 2 units the last week or so(Florida/Baylor/NC State) and finished off a strong(if unspectacular season) of slow grind and a lot of 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, 2-2 kind of weeks, so I'm feeling good going into these playoff games. Not the best games(the AFC is particularly hideous with some bad or inexperienced QB's on half the teams, an okay Smith, and then Big Ben and Brady), but the NFC looks to make up for it. Dallas and their young guns, Ryan and explosive Atlanta, Rodgers red hot, Eli behind a great defense, Russell Wilson and the best up Seahawks, and finally a scrappy Lions team.

I'm tied for first in a bowl pool so between sweating that out in the final three games(have PN ST +7, Auburn +4, and I'm thinking of rolling with Clemson in the write-in game(no money bets on first two).....could very well come down to the final score tiebreaker in the national championship game to win my pool. So between that, and NFL playoffs, and I hurt my back at work a few weeks ago and out of work a few more weeks(not the end of the world as this is a great time of the year to be laid up), this is an exciting few weeks ahead of me!!

GL to all and interested in what the Covers regulars think of these games!

glyde69 · Answer

No real value to be seen in the NFL games. I penciled in GB -3.5 and while it opened up much higher, I didn't fire early and that settled closer to what I thought with 45 minutes of opening. Pitt I had at 7.5 and there is some value with mismi but not much in that 7-10 point wasteland area. It creeps to 10-10.5 and that is a different story. Seattle I set for -9 and it opened lower, but is inching up. Houston about where I thought. I figured it would open on either side of 4, and while it opened at -2.5, it quickly raised up to 3.5 and 4 with my books.

So nothing value wise outside of Miami, but even that game I think creeps to 7.5 by kickoff especially if Tannahill gets announced as starter. Not really feeling Miami though.

I'm worried about one thing. Yesterday had a 5-0 perfect sweep day. All small plays. Nothing crazy but I tailed someone on a pair of overs and while Minny game had 34 at halftime, it settled in and I got a pair of wild late TD to first get a push at 41 and then the win. Then over in GB. Got late score and 2 pt Convo for a bit of a lucky push, and then a Hail Mary to get the over under 30 seconds. Then had the Saints, and wild backdoor. I don't generally get many of those lucky backdoor kind of wins, so to get 3 of them going into the playoffs.....I'm afraid the gambling gods will STRIKE back when it counts.

glyde69 · Answer

A little off topic, but I wound up betting Oklahoma -2 and I switched them to Ok -4 in the pool. -4 worries me as the value is gone, but the more I look at this game, the more I like Oklahoma. Plus if penn state holds on, it eliminates the two guys a game and 2 games behind us and it's just me and one guy tied going in the final two games(tied now and both on Penn State).

Should be a great game, but let the Sooners take it 30-24!!

tito40 · Answer

Hey glyde, hope all is good bud...I agree on the weather in Seattle. If its bad enough to make passing too tough, gives another advantage to the Hawks since their run D is their strength and Lions can&#x27;t run. Not sure the Lions have the D to stay in the game regardless.Pittsburgh looks like 13 mph winds, at least as of now. I was liking the Over there, but between the wind and the talk of Tannehill returning its making me doubt that as a playgl!!!!

Metallica2467 · Answer

BOL this weekend Glyde.

HabsHater88 · Answer

I hear ya. I had a massive Sunday and thought I was gonna give it back on bowl games but chickened and still won but played smaller bets and even passed on winners. Sometimes it&#x27;s a snowball and you crush the books but I rather play it safe

HabsHater88 · Answer

Seattle Giants teaser looks good. Good luck. I am trying to get Seahawks alternative line to -3 and parlay with Texans ML. Or maybe play all under and try and get a 3-1 week

Ballafran3 · Answer

Pretty sure weather in Houston doesnt matter unless the players are tailgating... I&#x27;m guessing 72 with chance of A.C

glyde69 · Answer

Ball, Houston a dome? Thanks for that. I thought they were an outdoors team for some reason.

Habs, better to be conservative then ballsy. Save "going for the kill" for blackjack IMO. Sports betting I always keep it close to the vest. If I make 150 bets through college/pro ball, maybe 5 plays at over 1 unit. Sure there's times you get on that rampage and say to yourself "damn, I wish I struck while I was hot," but overall stay composed and under control and within your gameplan and about the worst that can happen is you break even.

Tito!! What's up man!? It's looking like the 3 day monsoon might be holding off until Sunday so the weather might be okay in Seattle. I still feel good about my Seattle -2.5 play though. Seattle is a strange team this year. About 3/4 through the season, they geared up, and I took that inconsistent first half as Wilson being hobbled, but they ended the season a bit up and down. And that 12 man wasn't as dominant as its been the last 5 years either. Still....I don't see why they don't beat Detroit by a FG though.

Metallica

as always dude. Keep doing your thing.

wildcat95 · Answer

I like that teaser a lot.  I don&#x27;t see NYG getting blown out, regardless of weather.

bouncer07 · Answer

Detriot will cover. I don&#x27;t see Seattle defense will be doing much here but Seattle&#x27;s secondary will need to step up for Golden Tate, Lions WR1. Green Bay should be able to get an easy win here. Ben MacAdoo will be 0-1 against it&#x27;s former team twice in regular and post-season. For a first year coach going this far... it&#x27;s an accomplishment. Oakland is done.. Defensive battle takes it here. Houston advances. Pittsburgh should be able to kill the Dolphins straight up. If this was a regular season... Dolphins always cover and win for some ODD reason.

Dogjimbo · Answer

BOL Clyde the Glyde.   Pitt is well rested.  I like them ALOT..... (GO FIGURE)

glyde69 · Answer

I was thinking Houston all the way(unless line was crazy like -7). I'm looking st the game and me and my buddy are going back and forth about it, and I'm gonna copy and paste my message to him to save the trouble of writing it out again. I think I'm gonna change my mind completely and roll with Oakland(not locking yet; stlll need to read up on some other stuff). But here's my last message to him......

I couldn't open whatever pic or link u sent me.

I'm looking at this Houston game. I was originally going with Houston just on principle. Houston is a top 3 defense IMO with no holes. Oakland defense is hideous. While Osweiler friggin stinks, he's at home and he's better at home and you got a true rookie making his first start on the ROAD in the PLAYOFFS against a TOP 3 D.

To me, Houston is an auto play on that merit alone(unless the line is crazy high or something which it's not; it's sitting on one side of 4 like we talked about Sunday).

But I'm looking at Connor Cook and he's a guy who made me a lot of money in college. Was a guy who kind of carried that team on his back for years. Was a guy most thought could become a pro QB and a guy in a semi-pro style offense that he took most snaps from under center unlike a lot of the big name hacks always in shotgun.

And I'm thinking he's a guy who took over as a freshman very late in the season when their QB got hurt, and won a bowl game. Sophomore year as a starter, great numbers and goes out and wins the B10 championship and then the Rose Bowl.

Junior year wicked numbers and wins the Citrus Bowl over Baylor and that was the first year of the playoff and everyone was going nuts that 12-1 Baylor and 12-1 TCU was robbery that they didn't get into the playoff and they were huge favorites in the next biggest bowl, and Cook went bananas and won 48-45.

Senior year hurt all year IIRC but still wicked numbers, and wins the B10 again and goes to the playoff. Unfortunately got Alabama and he hung in the best he could, but lost to Bama. Honestly, that's the only time I saw him overwhelmed and while it turned out being a 34-0 blowout of sorts, I remember it being like 10-0 in the second half and MSU blew a couple shots to make it a game and a punt return TD and another big play and a garbage time TD made it look a lot worse than what it was. No excuses, but that's the only time I remember him playing bad in dozens of games in college.

Now to see what an MVP he was for that team. He gets drafted. Michigan State lost a few starters outside of Cook but I don't believe it was anything insane. If he plays another year, I'm sure they are right there with OSU/mich/Penn State and looking for another big 10 but he's drafted and what did they do without Cook?? I think they went like 4-8 this season. Terrible.

Now first start against a tough tough Texans team is borderline IMPOSSIBLE task. But Houston has proven they are good for 16-20 points tops. Is it impossible for the kid to score 17 points for the cover? If he plays clean and smart?

Denver is hands down the best defense in the NFL. Not even close. Cook gets thrown to the wolves against them and in one half went like 13-20 for 170 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT(he also fumbled and he CANT turn the ball over like that; one thing to maybe throw a pick or two downfield trying to make something happen, but cannot be clueless to pressure and get strip sacked).

Anyway not too shabby and a helluva lot better than I saw a couple all-pro QB do against Denver in the air this year. If Houston has a weakness it's their run Defense. Not truly a weakness per say, but they can be run on to some drgeee of success. And Oakland has a top notch big physical offensive line. If they can get a little success running, and Cook be play smart and decent and keep Houston from loading the box, why can't he pull this game out?

What u think bro?

glyde69 · Answer

WildcatBouncer Dog Jimbo!! What&#x27;s up man? Yea, the more I look at the Pitt game, I&#x27;m liking Pitt. They worry me a bit as their offense is so much more dink n dunk than I&#x27;m used to with them this year, but a lot of their bad games were on the road. At home here.....10 points is a LOT of points and that&#x27;s the thing keeping me away still, but I think they can power run all over Miami for success. Which opens up the pass attack. And while I&#x27;m not a huge fan of the Pitt defense, they are healthy for the most part and rested, and I think they can hold Anahi in check.....and if that&#x27;s done, gonna make it really hard for Moore to do much. Leaning Pitt hardcore.

lordbettington · Answer

Thanks for the interesting info on cook.

Jrod6 · Answer

I&#x27;m loving Houston here, seems like slot of the respectable posters around here are on the raiders. Well I could see a 21-20 game with Houston winning but then again we could see the same Oakland from last week. Houston has good D but of course nothing like den

glyde69 · Answer

lol I think I&#x27;m back to Houston. I&#x27;m just remembering the MNF from last month(if they played in Sept or Oct I wouldn&#x27;t consider this angle as a LOT changes in a football season over time, but this was week 12 or 13). Oakland was at home laying 7 or so, and they were hideous. I don&#x27;t think they got 40 yards on the ground and they attempted to slam it over and over. Counters, off guard, sweeps, they had nothing that game. Houston controlled the game for about 55 minutes and by contellled I mean DOMINATED the game. If they had any kind of QB play they win by DD easily, but it was just one of those games they botched up time and time again, and then late in the game, there was this fluke 80 yard TD, and then another 40 yarder within a few minutes to give Oakland the victory. Horrid showing. Now same matchup not too far into the future except Houston is home now. And their franchise QB is out. Their backup QB(who at least had experience in the NFL) is out, and leaves a true rookie in Cook making his first NFL start on the road in the playoffs against a top notch imo Top 3 defense in Houston. I was gassing up Cook in my mind a bit yesterday, and thinking "Oakland has a big physical top offensive line and if Cook can just prove he&#x27;s not a deer in headlights and can make throws to keep Houston from loading the box, why can&#x27;t this big offensive line and a trio of talented backs get something going on the ground attacking the weak link of the Texans in the run defense?"  That&#x27;s all fine and dandy, but Oakland was surging at the time last month. Had their star QB playing. And couldn&#x27;t run for their lives. I mean NOTHING on the ground. Gun to my head, it was a 25 carry 40 yard kind of night for them. What changes Saturday on the ground? Now Cook has a ton of positives going for him. He&#x27;s a gamer. He will stand in the pocket to take a hit to complete a pass downfield. He can chuck it downfield. But he&#x27;s also a guy who isn&#x27;t the most accurate especially in the short passing/slants game. Now if im the coaching staff for Oakland, I gotta think their attack is to run run run, keep the kid on training wheels, and set up a short psssing attack with lots of easy throws, lots of dump offs, lots of check downs.  THATS NOT COOKS GAME. He&#x27;s better off in 6/7 step drop and throwing downfield, but I can&#x27;t imagine Oakland is just gonna entrust their entire season on allowing the kid to go out and win the game chucking it deep. ???? now im back to initial lean in Houston. I gotta think anything -4 or loser and Houston is the play.

Racerxtc · Answer

Previous Texans v Raiders game was in Mexico City.

JamThePot · Answer

they say when you think its time to get out of a relationship, all you need to do is get out a piece of paper and make two lists... first list is all the things you like about the other person, the second list is all the things you dislike... just that simple exercise will point you to what you should do...

i thought it was an even game before i made the list... well, it didnt really differentiate anything.. both lists were very close.. when this happens, i always go back to the QB position.. which QB would i trust more with my $$$ on the line...

what i know: Osweiler has failed all his test in Houston... so much so that he got benched... Cook? i dont know and you dont know, cuz he hasnt had ANY starts yet... he could TOTALLY suck and fold like a cheap suit.. he could be half good / half not-so-good... or he could pass the test and win the game....

if i HAD to bet, i'd rather take the chance on the guy who hasnt already proven he sucks........

Jrod6 · Answer

Ya Mexico City was RAIDERS HOME. Not to mention laser gate and ridiculous call from refs denying that first down. (Can you guess who I had)?

FSerpico · Answer

Interesting take. I wouldn&#x27;t bet on Oswieler with phony money, I wouldn&#x27;t be able to deal with myself if he stunk and lost bad. I like the Under in this game.

the1trugr81 · Answer

"if i HAD to bet, i&#x27;d rather take the chance on the guy who hasn&#x27;t already proven he sucks........"Agreed...  THere are many unknowns in this game.  If one feels the need to bet this game, I think a Live Bet or 2nd half bet would make the most sense.

glyde69 · Answer

Anyone have any thoughts on the line movement in

- Houston/Oakland

- Pitt/Miami

I'm stumped in where these two go. I believe Seattle game trickles to the 7.5/8 area. Giants trickle to +4 maybe +3.5, but the other two I'm not sure. Books like to pull a fake on a home fav like Houston at times. Get people that were waiting on the line to drop to see it rise, suck up their money at a higher line(-4 in this case), keep Oakland backers waiting for that hook to get on the right side of key #4, and then POOF it's -3 and no one gets the best line. BUT that's usually a Friday night, Saturday move. Little early to be doing it on Wednesday.

Then Pitt with a book like 5 dimes, their "main line" is either 11 or 11.5 which tells me that they don't want to give everyone and their mother Pitt for -3 or lower in a teaser. My opening line guess was -7.5 so when it opened higher, I felt that it would eventually fall closer to what I thought.....but I'm starting to think it doesn't drop now with the way they refuse to give up the teaser value on Pitt. And while most people bet a couple hours before kickoff, I don't see the point of dropping it then. So my gut says it drops closer to my personal opener of 7.5. My brain sees things and says -10 -103 is the best I'm gonna get, and lock it up now.

Anyone have any thoughts?

glyde69 · Answer

Interesting take.

glyde69 · Answer

Just hit Pittsburgh -10 -102. I was holding off hopes for it to drop closer to the line I penciled in Sunday night, but the evidence doesn't seem to show it dropping.

Waiting on 3.5(hopefully 3) before I tap Houston.

Wild card winners.

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