I think you are going to sweep the card this week and as such I’m going to take these all straight and parlay them
Is this good news or bad news?
Is this good news or bad news?
Is this good news or bad news?
BOL on all your plays! Totally agree with Tampa Bay.
Not sure why people are trying to paint a different picture when Philly continues to show their true colors…
BOL on all your plays! Totally agree with Tampa Bay.
Not sure why people are trying to paint a different picture when Philly continues to show their true colors…
Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996....
Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out.....
Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated.
https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959
Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996....
Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out.....
Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated.
https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959
Micah gonna be EATIN come Sunday
Micah gonna be EATIN come Sunday
Van, as you probably know, Stroud has some of the widest splits in the league when it comes to facing Zone vs. Man coverage. He's one of the league's best vs Zone but falls off a cliff vs. Man*. Cleveland D is one of the better man coverage units in the league, and they play Cover 1 (man) majority of the time (44%).
You feel confident he can overcome that in this matchup? Is it due to Garrett being less than 100%?
*"Stroud has really struggled when facing man coverage and ranks in just the 17th percentile against that scheme. However, Stroud has absolutely shredded zone coverage, producing 89th-percentile output." Source: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-18-best-bets-back-the-texans-to-beat-the-colts-and-clinch-an-afc-playoff-berth#:~:text=A%20key%20factor%20in%20projecting,17th%20percentile%20against%20that%20scheme
Van, as you probably know, Stroud has some of the widest splits in the league when it comes to facing Zone vs. Man coverage. He's one of the league's best vs Zone but falls off a cliff vs. Man*. Cleveland D is one of the better man coverage units in the league, and they play Cover 1 (man) majority of the time (44%).
You feel confident he can overcome that in this matchup? Is it due to Garrett being less than 100%?
*"Stroud has really struggled when facing man coverage and ranks in just the 17th percentile against that scheme. However, Stroud has absolutely shredded zone coverage, producing 89th-percentile output." Source: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-18-best-bets-back-the-texans-to-beat-the-colts-and-clinch-an-afc-playoff-berth#:~:text=A%20key%20factor%20in%20projecting,17th%20percentile%20against%20that%20scheme
@Chef_BoyarG
The way I see it....
If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win. So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw. If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong.
It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage. Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.
@Chef_BoyarG
The way I see it....
If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win. So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw. If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong.
It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage. Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.
But what do I know.....
But what do I know.....
@TRAIN69
Very true. I tried finding actual snap counts of how much Zone / Man coverage he's actually faced just to get a sense of that sample size, but regardless, your point that he simply hasn't played many games yet still holds.
@TRAIN69
Very true. I tried finding actual snap counts of how much Zone / Man coverage he's actually faced just to get a sense of that sample size, but regardless, your point that he simply hasn't played many games yet still holds.
@vanzack
Makes sense, thanks for the perspective. While I have concerns with how Stroud/offense will do, I'm definitely more optimistic about the other side of the ball. Flacco's run has been insane to watch, but seems unsustainable. Multiple turnover-worthy plays every game will usually burn you in the postseason on the road. Also not sure how Flacco has survived largely untouched behind that battered O-line, but if Anderson/Greenard are healthy, feels like that will finally catch up to Flacco as well.
I'll be on Hou with ya. Good luck
@vanzack
Makes sense, thanks for the perspective. While I have concerns with how Stroud/offense will do, I'm definitely more optimistic about the other side of the ball. Flacco's run has been insane to watch, but seems unsustainable. Multiple turnover-worthy plays every game will usually burn you in the postseason on the road. Also not sure how Flacco has survived largely untouched behind that battered O-line, but if Anderson/Greenard are healthy, feels like that will finally catch up to Flacco as well.
I'll be on Hou with ya. Good luck
@Chef_BoyarG
What exact measures are you looking at?
Against COVER 1 he has 85 attempts with a rating of 105.3 at 6th and ANY/A of 8.8 for 4th.
Against all coverage except COVER 1 he has 414 attempts with a rating of 99.9 at 8th and ANY/A of 7.2 at 5th.
Some other numbers like PE/Play is lower and Comp% is lower. Positive plays are about the same at 45.2 and 45.5.
But he seems to do well at attacking COVER 1. Certainly, circumstance and timing matter when looking at it -- because it is very situational. But I am wondering if a broad statement about it is accurate.
Just curious exactly what you meant, or were looking at is all.
@Chef_BoyarG
What exact measures are you looking at?
Against COVER 1 he has 85 attempts with a rating of 105.3 at 6th and ANY/A of 8.8 for 4th.
Against all coverage except COVER 1 he has 414 attempts with a rating of 99.9 at 8th and ANY/A of 7.2 at 5th.
Some other numbers like PE/Play is lower and Comp% is lower. Positive plays are about the same at 45.2 and 45.5.
But he seems to do well at attacking COVER 1. Certainly, circumstance and timing matter when looking at it -- because it is very situational. But I am wondering if a broad statement about it is accurate.
Just curious exactly what you meant, or were looking at is all.
@Raiders22
I linked the article I was referring to at the bottom of my post (PFF). Their article was using EPA+ as its measuring stat (as opposed to ANY/A), but still surprised to see it in such stark contrast with your ANY/A stats. Super interesting. Where can I find your #s?
@Raiders22
I linked the article I was referring to at the bottom of my post (PFF). Their article was using EPA+ as its measuring stat (as opposed to ANY/A), but still surprised to see it in such stark contrast with your ANY/A stats. Super interesting. Where can I find your #s?
@Chef_BoyarG
Gotcha. See the link now. Yes that will look at other things also. For example, his comp% is lower and his PE/Play and WAR are as well. But this is the case with a lot of QBs. This is very situational in-game.
But you are correct, in that his sack% does go up and the efficiency does go down. But his TD% goes up and he has not thrown an interception against it. So, he is smart with the ball and can beat the coverage with longer throws -- he just does not look to dump it as much and will throw it away or take the sack. That is part of the reason the comp% drops off it looks like. Those factor heavily into the rating. Granted it is well less than 20% of attempts to sample from, but could still be a factor.
It should be interesting how they match up because CLV is a tough matchup on D for anyone. Their Pass Rush is very good and the Pass Defense is okay and the Rush Defense is good. With him being a young guy in his first playoff game, it will be very interesting if they can get to him and make him get rid of the ball before he wants to or take a sack. If he beats them deep a couple of times, it will also be interesting to see how CLV adjusts.
@Chef_BoyarG
Gotcha. See the link now. Yes that will look at other things also. For example, his comp% is lower and his PE/Play and WAR are as well. But this is the case with a lot of QBs. This is very situational in-game.
But you are correct, in that his sack% does go up and the efficiency does go down. But his TD% goes up and he has not thrown an interception against it. So, he is smart with the ball and can beat the coverage with longer throws -- he just does not look to dump it as much and will throw it away or take the sack. That is part of the reason the comp% drops off it looks like. Those factor heavily into the rating. Granted it is well less than 20% of attempts to sample from, but could still be a factor.
It should be interesting how they match up because CLV is a tough matchup on D for anyone. Their Pass Rush is very good and the Pass Defense is okay and the Rush Defense is good. With him being a young guy in his first playoff game, it will be very interesting if they can get to him and make him get rid of the ball before he wants to or take a sack. If he beats them deep a couple of times, it will also be interesting to see how CLV adjusts.
GL to all of you,, I have come to the conclusion that the KC/Miami game is not handicapable (is that a word?) feels like -30F,,, pffffft , who knows who's built to stand up to that nonsense. Sh***t the ball isn't even the same. Kind of a bummer IMO. could have been a really great test for two exciting teams. Now it seems like a war of attrition.. but who knows, maybe it will give us some unexpected plays.
GL to all of you,, I have come to the conclusion that the KC/Miami game is not handicapable (is that a word?) feels like -30F,,, pffffft , who knows who's built to stand up to that nonsense. Sh***t the ball isn't even the same. Kind of a bummer IMO. could have been a really great test for two exciting teams. Now it seems like a war of attrition.. but who knows, maybe it will give us some unexpected plays.
@iceman67 Gervin!! Fantastic, I saw him live
so wait, do I have to pay this Peacock outfit to watch?? Mia -3.5 (+310) is my play… guessing Waddle no can play. Achane
@iceman67 Gervin!! Fantastic, I saw him live
so wait, do I have to pay this Peacock outfit to watch?? Mia -3.5 (+310) is my play… guessing Waddle no can play. Achane
in this situation, there isn’t a “next man up”. Big loss for a team fading fast.
in this situation, there isn’t a “next man up”. Big loss for a team fading fast.
Half unit at +3, half unit at +3.5
Half unit at +3, half unit at +3.5
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