Wildcard Weekend...

Here we go....  Not doing long writeups but will point out some key decision factors for me.

Buffalo -6.5 (4 units) - save the best for first....  I have always advocated using strength of opponent adjusted stats for doing your handicapping.  Look at this list of 11 Indy wins:  Jax, Min, NYJ, Chi, Cin, Det, Hou (2), LV, GB and TN.  The colts offense has faced the easiest SOS defenses in the NFL.  Buffalo gets out early, turns Indy and Rivers in to a one dimensional throwing offense and it is lights out.  Giving 6.5 is dangerous against teams that can come back late and backdoor the spread - aint happening here with Rivers against a defense that knows what is coming.  Buffalo rolls.

Rams +3.5 (1.5 unit) - call me crazy, but I would much rather get 4.5 with Wolford than 3.5 with Goff.  Especially Goff just off of thumb surgery.  I had the Rams in this game 2 weeks ago, and while they lost by 11, they outyarded the Seahwaks but had a key turnover and couldnt convert in the red zone.  The rematch will be a close one. 

Tampa -9 (2 units) - Come on.  Washington is not a real team.  Their QB is a great story - but not good.  This is the playoffs in the NFL - a team that has only beaten:  Phi (2), SF, Cin, Dal (2), and Pit and who is 29th in offensive efficiency is not a team I want to bet on.  I lay 9 points in the NFL almost never.  But tell me how Wash is going to run on TB?  And if they cant run, they fall behind, and they are doomed.  Similar game flow to Buffalo - TB goes out and never looks back.

Tennessee +3.5 (2 units) - very good matchup of 2 very balanced offenses.  Tenn offense is sneaky good - top of the league in BOTH rushing and passing - it is their defense that can be terrible at times.  But I will take my chances here against what I feel like is a Balt offense too reliant on Jackson and what he can do with his legs.  Make him throw - and I think TN will - and things will be different.  Close game - similar to the Rams - give me the points.

Bears +10 (1 unit) - Just think 10 is too much.  Bears should shorten the game - should have some success running the ball - and hopefully Trubisky doesnt turn it over.  If those things happen, Saints win comfortably but by less than 10.

Cleveland +6 (2.5 units) - this line is ridiculous.  2 weeks ago everyone thought the steelers weren't going to win again - and now they are -6 against a team that can run the ball and control the game?  Believe me - I know Mayfield is a POS NFL QB, but I do expect Cle to have him roll out a lot more like he did last week and use his legs to open up passing lanes.  Total toss up game.

GL all

Nice card, best of luck  

You about to bring Inspiration, dude. Don't make wake up after the party over. Welcome home, been a minute... 

Thank you, Vanz. I strictly do teasers now in the NFL and I was looking to tease Tampa with another game. Saints line is a bit too high for a teaser and I was torn on Buffalo. Tease the Colts up or tease the Bills down?! Well, you convinced me. I think the chances of Bills cover is greater because of their ability to create separation whereas the Colts chances hinge on their ability to jump ahead early and milk the clock for a close finish. My only worry with Buffalo is, can they keep this pace up? We saw what happened with KC last year in the playoffs. After steamrolling teams during the regular season, they had major hiccups coming out of the gate, falling behind early in the first half. Lucky for them, they were going up against the idiot Texans coach. If they had been facing Reich and the Colts, it would have been a different story. So that’s my only worry with the Bills. 

I like em all 

good luck vanzack

Good Luck this weekend

Nice looking card Brotha !!! Nice to see you on the threads.

Awesome analysis!  Good Luck! 

@vanzack

 Indy the only team to lose to Jax .Ruined my parlay week 1.  Hope they get rolled!

@kcblitzkrieg

 Thanks - same to you.

WussieMan!!  OG in the house.

@begginerboy

 I hear you.  I just see the bills jumping on the Colts, having a healthy lead at HT - and then you are going to see Rivers trying to throw predictable 15 yard out patterns the rest of the game because he can't throw downfield unless he literally has 10 seconds in the pocket.

GL

Good to see everyone else.

GL to all this weekend!

I will be watching this system closely as well. 

GL sir your the best

Thanks for the input, Vanz. This will be a tough decision only because as much as I don’t like or trust Rivers, I like and trust Reich. 

Like your plays, however, I believe the Saints past performance and last second playoff defeats will loom large in this game. Saints will be all gas and no brakes in this game. Let’s face it the Bears snuck in through the back door and have no business in the playoffs. Tribusky is the #1 worst rated QB in the NFL when pressured and that’s what the Saints D does best. I have the Saints big but then again what do I know. BOL!!

@BB - what’s the other team in your teaser? Bills/Colts and?

GB beat the Bears by double digits I’m curious to know your thoughts on defenses comparing GB defense and Saints defense...

saints can slow down Montgomery in my opinion..which is the reason trubisky has been looking good..not sure trubisky can carry a team if they get 3&outs consistently that Bears Defense will be gassed..

also I get the whole Brees is old noodle arm but he can still throw a catchable ball Kamara should be back and Thomas has been practicing... you don’t see the same result that happened with GB?

Action, don’t want to clutter Vanz’s thread. In short my plan was to tease or parlay Buccaneers and Saints: risking 24 units to win 12-13. It is a stiff price to pay, but if the idea is to make money then that is the simplest route. I think they both have over a 90% chance of winning and even covering, so this is a no brainer for me. It also feels like it is Brady and Brees’ last dance, two guys who lost close games on the foo round last year. And now they face Washington and Chicago, which aren’t playoff teams, IMO. To top it off, if the NFL gives a rats a s s about making coin, these teams and their aging QBs will be in the hunt next week. All the other games can go either way, imo. A turnover here or there can change the outcome. The Bucs and Saints have enough talent, against these undermanned teams, to overcome any turnover differential. But that’s just my opinion. Good luck. 

great card Van-on the 1st 2 picks--agree, Indy has had some soft opponents and were real lucky to beat the Pack...got Buffalo -2.5 teased with Rams +8.5 early in the week-good luck!

Love your Card ....

As mentioned in the other thread I believe we are 90% or better when we're on the same side LARGE over the last decade ...

The BILLS should be laying at least 10.5 IMO ...

My large local is saying that 80% of the money is on the Steelers ...All the BROWNS covid talk has money pouring in on Pittsburgh....Was hoping it rose to 7 , but I might have to jump on the Browns soon....

Sweep your board Brother $$$$

Thank you for all your posts..

Thanks All.

I see you, and appreciate you.

@mctrap

 Oh buddy I had Indy on my survivor pool.. done Week 1

Somehow I made it through the whole season and split mine.

I wish I parlayed the MLs of the 17 picks.