2014 NFL record: 3-2
56-14.
Does anyone remember that score?
It was the one of the biggest beatings of the season, and worse, it was on national TV for everyone to gawk at (and deride Thursday Night Games for their lack of competition).
It was Bucs@Falcons on 9/18.
I marked my calendar on that night and said I was playing Tampa no matter what when they had the Falcons in their building.
Better, we are getting a FG here with a little bit of juice at home and when I looked at it further, I found out it was not that bad a spot at all.
What has changed since that time?
1) McCown is replacing Glennon at QB.
Funny since Glennon replaced McCown in that very game and McCown hasn't played since.
You're not excited? Neither am I since McCown went 0-3 to start the year. But guess what?
McCown started and then tore ligaments in his hand and was pulled.
So really not only is this is a game of redemption for the entire Bucs team, but the guy leading them is the guy who started the original game which set up this situation.
An added bonus is that a new QB always makes defenses prepare more since this isn't the familiar face on game film in their opponent's recent weeks.
McCown did not play that bad to start the year almost taking out the Rams and Panthers in their building to start the year.
In fact, the Bucs have played well in their own building this year and miscues have cost them late:
1. Game 1 vs. Panthers - Bucs fought back from down 14-0 the entire game to get the ball on their own 32 and fumbled the game away. Panthers convert a FG and the Bucs had no time (23 seconds) to manufacture a game winning drive and lose 20-14.
2. Game 2 vs. Rams - Up 17-16, Rams kick a game-winner with 36 seconds left to steal one and win 19-17.
3. Game 6 vs. Ravens - This is the give-up game right before their bye week. Bucs lose 48-17 (but also note the Ravens came out with a purpose having lost to the Colts in a game they weren't competitive in for most of it).
4. Game 8 vs. Vikings - Tied 13-13 in OT, Bucs fumble away the game and lose 19-13.
Yes, there is a lot of coulda/shoulda/woulda there but this is a bad team. But you know what? The Falcons are bad team too...laying points on the road in a big revenge game.
So for all the games the Bucs have played at home, there's something positive despite all the losses and falling short in each.
Also, the Bucs are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 and could easily be 4-1 ATS if they didn't fumble one away against the Vikings. So Vegas is profiting off them as of late. Makes you wonder how this line has dipped to 2.5 in some places at times (off a key number of three and getting Vegas to move off three is like trying to move Mt. Rushmore with your shoulder).
That 3-2 ATS record includes an outright win against the now mighty Steelers and a near-miss against the Saints 31-37 in the Saints building.
That's not bad and in a way I wish Glennon was still given the nod here but to complete this circle of revenge, I'll take McCown.
Now do the Bucs remember the 56-14 beating? Are they bitter about it? Do they care? Will they use it as motivation today (something some posters here completely dismiss regularly in my threads which is baffling)?
Let's look at the quotes:
Lovie Smith -
As a competitor, I don't even think you have to mention that game (i.e. my insert - that we remember that game, given the previous question from a reported ). Very seldom does something like that happen to you.
We're just appreciative we get an opportunity to redeem ourselves and play them again.
DLT Gerald McCoy -
We didn't play with much heart or pride in that game so that pride has to be there this game.
Coach said, (losses like that) leave a scar, which it does. All of us have scars. When you look at a scar, your just remember I got this scar from this happening. That's how we look at it.
As for the Falcons, this is a team coming off a bye after an atrocious loss overseas to the Lions.
At 2-6, they are in the same spiral as last year where most of the weeks the books continually giving them credit for getting back into the race again. They ended up with the same record as the lousy Bucs, laying a lot of points in the process each game, at 4-12. Here they are again laying points on the road with a terrible record. The trend continues and the bettor's get mowed down with failed expectations.
But at 2-6 and the Bucs at 1-7, yes, BOTH teams think they are still in this chasing a team that is 4-4. String off 3-4 in a row and you are some where near the top of this awful division. So yes, both teams, as unlikely as it may seem to us the bettor, are playing for something here.
I'll tell you some of things that bother me:
I don't like the bye week for ATL.
I don't like the crushing loss ATL is coming off of.
I don't like the fact the Bucs are 5-21 ATS as a home dog at home in their last 26.
Still, I'll take the mildly resurgent play by the Bucs in the last 5 weeks, getting points, at home, where they have played well, trying to avenge the biggest beating of the season as the NFL world watched on in horror.
This is just a 3 star play and a flat bet.
I'm not going crazy here with the bet and I'm keeping a promise to myself to take the Bucs in this spot. When I looked into it, it wasn't as bad as I thought.
Of course, take the hook if your book is screwing you, as the hook from 2.5 to 3 is BY FAR the most valuable hook you could ever buy (actually a bargain). 5 Dimes has it at 3 with a little extra juice but again, you can't pass up 3 for that price.
Ya gotta have guts when you back these teams and yes, this pick does give me a bit of indigestion but in the end, it has paid off handsomely for me as a capper backing the bottom of the barrel over the long-term.
As a side note, yes, I have money on the Jets/Pitt game but I'm not interested in posting it or talking about it.
The pick:
BUCS +3 (-120) OVER FALCONS
B U C S BUCS BUCS BUCS!!!