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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    WRITE-UP! The biggest revenge game no one is talking about is today.No it doesn't involve the JETS.

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    scalabrine
    CBo
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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:17 AM ET #1

    2014 NFL record: 3-2

    56-14.

    Does anyone remember that score?

    It was the one of the biggest beatings of the season, and worse, it was on national TV for everyone to gawk at (and deride Thursday Night Games for their lack of competition).

    It was Bucs@Falcons on 9/18.

    I marked my calendar on that night and said I was playing Tampa no matter what when they had the Falcons in their building.

    Better, we are getting a FG here with a little bit of juice at home and when I looked at it further, I found out it was not that bad a spot at all.

    What has changed since that time?

    1) McCown is replacing Glennon at QB.

    Funny since Glennon replaced McCown in that very game and McCown hasn't played since.

    You're not excited? Neither am I since McCown went 0-3 to start the year. But guess what?

    McCown started and then tore ligaments in his hand and was pulled.

    So really not only is this is a game of redemption for the entire Bucs team, but the guy leading them is the guy who started the original game which set up this situation.

    An added bonus is that a new QB always makes defenses prepare more since this isn't the familiar face on game film in their opponent's recent weeks.

    McCown did not play that bad to start the year almost taking out the Rams and Panthers in their building to start the year.

    In fact, the Bucs have played well in their own building this year  and miscues have cost them late:

    1. Game 1 vs. Panthers - Bucs fought back from down 14-0 the entire game to get the ball on their own 32 and fumbled the game away. Panthers convert a FG and the Bucs had no time (23 seconds) to manufacture a game winning drive and lose 20-14.

    2. Game 2 vs. Rams - Up 17-16, Rams kick a game-winner with 36 seconds left to steal one and win 19-17.

    3. Game 6 vs. Ravens - This is the give-up game right before their bye week. Bucs lose 48-17 (but also note the Ravens came out with a purpose having lost to the Colts in a game they weren't competitive in for most of it).

    4. Game 8 vs. Vikings - Tied 13-13 in OT, Bucs fumble away the game and lose 19-13.

    Yes, there is a lot of coulda/shoulda/woulda there but this is a bad team. But you know what? The Falcons are bad team too...laying points on the road in a big revenge game.

    So for all the games the Bucs have played at home, there's something positive despite all the losses and falling short in each.

    Also, the Bucs are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 and could easily be 4-1 ATS if they didn't fumble one away against the Vikings. So Vegas is profiting off them as of late. Makes you wonder how this line has dipped to 2.5 in some places at times (off a key number of three and getting Vegas to move off three is like trying to move Mt. Rushmore with your shoulder). 

    That 3-2 ATS record includes an outright win against the now mighty Steelers and a near-miss against the Saints 31-37 in the Saints building.

    That's not bad and in a way I wish Glennon was still given the nod here but to complete this circle of revenge, I'll take McCown.

    Now do the Bucs remember the 56-14 beating? Are they bitter about it? Do they care? Will they use it as motivation today (something some posters here completely dismiss regularly in my threads which is baffling)?

    Let's look at the quotes:

    Lovie Smith -

    As a competitor, I don't even think you have to mention that game (i.e. my insert - that we remember that game, given the previous question from a reported ). Very seldom does something like that happen to you.

    We're just appreciative we get an opportunity to redeem ourselves and play them again.

    DLT Gerald McCoy -

    We didn't play with much heart or pride in that game so that pride has to be there this game.

    Coach said, (losses like that) leave a scar, which it does. All of us have scars. When you look at a scar, your just remember I got this scar from this happening. That's how we look at it.

     

    As for the Falcons, this is a team coming off a bye after an atrocious loss overseas to the Lions.

    At 2-6, they are in the same spiral as last year where most of the weeks the books continually giving them credit for getting back into the race again. They ended up with the same record as the lousy Bucs, laying a lot of points in the process each game, at 4-12. Here they are again laying points on the road with a terrible record. The trend continues and the bettor's get mowed down with failed expectations.

    But at 2-6 and the Bucs at 1-7, yes, BOTH teams think they are still in this chasing a team that is 4-4. String off 3-4 in a row and you are some where near the top of this awful division. So yes, both teams, as unlikely as it may seem to us the bettor, are playing for something here.

    I'll tell you some of things that bother me:

    I don't like the bye week for ATL.

    I don't like the crushing loss ATL is coming off of.

    I don't like the fact the Bucs are 5-21 ATS as a home dog at home in their last 26.

    Still, I'll take the mildly resurgent play by the Bucs in the last 5 weeks, getting points, at home, where they have played well, trying to avenge the biggest beating of the season as the NFL world watched on in horror.

    This is just a 3 star play and a flat bet.

    I'm not going crazy here with the bet and I'm keeping a promise to myself to take the Bucs in this spot. When I looked into it, it wasn't as bad as I thought.

    Of course, take the hook if your book is screwing you, as the hook from 2.5 to 3 is BY FAR the most valuable hook you could ever buy (actually a bargain). 5 Dimes has it at 3 with a little extra juice but again, you can't pass up 3 for that price.

    Ya gotta have guts when you back these teams and yes, this pick does give me a bit of indigestion but in the end, it has paid off handsomely for me as a capper backing the bottom of the barrel over the long-term.

    As a side note, yes, I have money on the Jets/Pitt game but I'm not interested in posting it or talking about it.

    The pick:

    BUCS +3 (-120) OVER FALCONS

    B U C S BUCS BUCS BUCS!!!

     

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    2014 NFL record: 3-2

    56-14.

    Does anyone remember that score?

    It was the one of the biggest beatings of the season, and worse, it was on national TV for everyone to gawk at (and deride Thursday Night Games for their lack of competition).

    It was Bucs@Falcons on 9/18.

    I marked my calendar on that night and said I was playing Tampa no matter what when they had the Falcons in their building.

    Better, we are getting a FG here with a little bit of juice at home and when I looked at it further, I found out it was not that bad a spot at all.

    What has changed since that time?

    1) McCown is replacing Glennon at QB.

    Funny since Glennon replaced McCown in that very game and McCown hasn't played since.

    You're not excited? Neither am I since McCown went 0-3 to start the year. But guess what?

    McCown started and then tore ligaments in his hand and was pulled.

    So really not only is this is a game of redemption for the entire Bucs team, but the guy leading them is the guy who started the original game which set up this situation.

    An added bonus is that a new QB always makes defenses prepare more since this isn't the familiar face on game film in their opponent's recent weeks.

    McCown did not play that bad to start the year almost taking out the Rams and Panthers in their building to start the year.

    In fact, the Bucs have played well in their own building this year  and miscues have cost them late:

    1. Game 1 vs. Panthers - Bucs fought back from down 14-0 the entire game to get the ball on their own 32 and fumbled the game away. Panthers convert a FG and the Bucs had no time (23 seconds) to manufacture a game winning drive and lose 20-14.

    2. Game 2 vs. Rams - Up 17-16, Rams kick a game-winner with 36 seconds left to steal one and win 19-17.

    3. Game 6 vs. Ravens - This is the give-up game right before their bye week. Bucs lose 48-17 (but also note the Ravens came out with a purpose having lost to the Colts in a game they weren't competitive in for most of it).

    4. Game 8 vs. Vikings - Tied 13-13 in OT, Bucs fumble away the game and lose 19-13.

    Yes, there is a lot of coulda/shoulda/woulda there but this is a bad team. But you know what? The Falcons are bad team too...laying points on the road in a big revenge game.

    So for all the games the Bucs have played at home, there's something positive despite all the losses and falling short in each.

    Also, the Bucs are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 and could easily be 4-1 ATS if they didn't fumble one away against the Vikings. So Vegas is profiting off them as of late. Makes you wonder how this line has dipped to 2.5 in some places at times (off a key number of three and getting Vegas to move off three is like trying to move Mt. Rushmore with your shoulder). 

    That 3-2 ATS record includes an outright win against the now mighty Steelers and a near-miss against the Saints 31-37 in the Saints building.

    That's not bad and in a way I wish Glennon was still given the nod here but to complete this circle of revenge, I'll take McCown.

    Now do the Bucs remember the 56-14 beating? Are they bitter about it? Do they care? Will they use it as motivation today (something some posters here completely dismiss regularly in my threads which is baffling)?

    Let's look at the quotes:

    Lovie Smith -

    As a competitor, I don't even think you have to mention that game (i.e. my insert - that we remember that game, given the previous question from a reported ). Very seldom does something like that happen to you.

    We're just appreciative we get an opportunity to redeem ourselves and play them again.

    DLT Gerald McCoy -

    We didn't play with much heart or pride in that game so that pride has to be there this game.

    Coach said, (losses like that) leave a scar, which it does. All of us have scars. When you look at a scar, your just remember I got this scar from this happening. That's how we look at it.

     

    As for the Falcons, this is a team coming off a bye after an atrocious loss overseas to the Lions.

    At 2-6, they are in the same spiral as last year where most of the weeks the books continually giving them credit for getting back into the race again. They ended up with the same record as the lousy Bucs, laying a lot of points in the process each game, at 4-12. Here they are again laying points on the road with a terrible record. The trend continues and the bettor's get mowed down with failed expectations.

    But at 2-6 and the Bucs at 1-7, yes, BOTH teams think they are still in this chasing a team that is 4-4. String off 3-4 in a row and you are some where near the top of this awful division. So yes, both teams, as unlikely as it may seem to us the bettor, are playing for something here.

    I'll tell you some of things that bother me:

    I don't like the bye week for ATL.

    I don't like the crushing loss ATL is coming off of.

    I don't like the fact the Bucs are 5-21 ATS as a home dog at home in their last 26.

    Still, I'll take the mildly resurgent play by the Bucs in the last 5 weeks, getting points, at home, where they have played well, trying to avenge the biggest beating of the season as the NFL world watched on in horror.

    This is just a 3 star play and a flat bet.

    I'm not going crazy here with the bet and I'm keeping a promise to myself to take the Bucs in this spot. When I looked into it, it wasn't as bad as I thought.

    Of course, take the hook if your book is screwing you, as the hook from 2.5 to 3 is BY FAR the most valuable hook you could ever buy (actually a bargain). 5 Dimes has it at 3 with a little extra juice but again, you can't pass up 3 for that price.

    Ya gotta have guts when you back these teams and yes, this pick does give me a bit of indigestion but in the end, it has paid off handsomely for me as a capper backing the bottom of the barrel over the long-term.

    As a side note, yes, I have money on the Jets/Pitt game but I'm not interested in posting it or talking about it.

    The pick:

    BUCS +3 (-120) OVER FALCONS

    B U C S BUCS BUCS BUCS!!!

     

     
    CBo
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:23 AM ET #2

    Thank god- not the Jets  
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    Thank god- not the Jets  
     
    PureButta
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:25 AM ET #3

    Great job Scally
    It was a Game that stood out to me as well.   Looking for a TB su win
    GL to us
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    Great job Scally
    It was a Game that stood out to me as well.   Looking for a TB su win
    GL to us
     
    Beningo88
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:26 AM ET #4

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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:28 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by CBo:

    Thank god- not the Jets  

     

    Well I bet that game...just not posted.

     

     

    Another stat for those who think the Falcons should be laying points on the road ...to anyone:

     

    Bucs are second to last in Yards Allowed Per Game.

    Who is the worst? Atlanta allowing 409!

    Bucs are terrible in points allowed per game (an average that is inflated by the very 56 pts we quote here) giving up 30.6 per game.

    Who is right behind them? Atlanta allowing 27.6 per game.

    So you have two teams that defensively are not that far apart and you have all the motivation at home for the Bucs. Yes, offensively leaves something to be desired backing Tampa (to say the least) but we get a FG in a big revenge spot which is pretty good compensation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CBo:

    Thank god- not the Jets  

     

    Well I bet that game...just not posted.

     

     

    Another stat for those who think the Falcons should be laying points on the road ...to anyone:

     

    Bucs are second to last in Yards Allowed Per Game.

    Who is the worst? Atlanta allowing 409!

    Bucs are terrible in points allowed per game (an average that is inflated by the very 56 pts we quote here) giving up 30.6 per game.

    Who is right behind them? Atlanta allowing 27.6 per game.

    So you have two teams that defensively are not that far apart and you have all the motivation at home for the Bucs. Yes, offensively leaves something to be desired backing Tampa (to say the least) but we get a FG in a big revenge spot which is pretty good compensation.

     
    Bizzey
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:29 AM ET #6

    Jets and Bucs win today 
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    Jets and Bucs win today 
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:29 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by PureButta:

    Great job Scally
    It was a Game that stood out to me as well.   Looking for a TB su win
    GL to us

    I'm glad someone else saw it. We all saw the 35-0 halftime score because we were all here commenting about it on this very board.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by PureButta:

    Great job Scally
    It was a Game that stood out to me as well.   Looking for a TB su win
    GL to us

    I'm glad someone else saw it. We all saw the 35-0 halftime score because we were all here commenting about it on this very board.

     

     
    VGPOP
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:29 AM ET #8

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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:31 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Bizzey:

    Jets and Bucs win today 

     

    You'd think, given their combined 1-15 record, they'd be getting more than 6.5 pts COMBINED today!

    Nope....and there are reasons for that as the bettor's line up salivating...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bizzey:

    Jets and Bucs win today 

     

    You'd think, given their combined 1-15 record, they'd be getting more than 6.5 pts COMBINED today!

    Nope....and there are reasons for that as the bettor's line up salivating...

     
    CHANGCHANG
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:31 AM ET #10

    bucs as home underdog ATS 5-21
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    bucs as home underdog ATS 5-21
     
    Barnstorm
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:32 AM ET #11

    Revenge is a big factor, but Falcons even at 2-6 are still alive in the NFC South. The Falcons are also rested and looking for redemption from blowing that game in London where they had a very good Lions team beat. And finally, even if it was in Atlanta, if you can beat a team 56-14, you must have some significant match-up advantages.

    I agree that the Bucs will play hard and not get beat by much, but the Falcons are highly motivated also. That is the difference in this one.

    Josh McCown is not much of an upgrade from Mick Glennon and Vincent Jackson is hurting. Mike Evans is a beast, though.

    I got Atlanta -1.5.

    GL
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    Revenge is a big factor, but Falcons even at 2-6 are still alive in the NFC South. The Falcons are also rested and looking for redemption from blowing that game in London where they had a very good Lions team beat. And finally, even if it was in Atlanta, if you can beat a team 56-14, you must have some significant match-up advantages.

    I agree that the Bucs will play hard and not get beat by much, but the Falcons are highly motivated also. That is the difference in this one.

    Josh McCown is not much of an upgrade from Mick Glennon and Vincent Jackson is hurting. Mike Evans is a beast, though.

    I got Atlanta -1.5.

    GL
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:32 AM ET #12

    @Ben

    @VG - You should put Interstellar as you avatar as that will be #1 this week.

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    @Ben

    @VG - You should put Interstellar as you avatar as that will be #1 this week.

     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:35 AM ET #13

    Why do we do this to ourselves? I like both

    BOL

    1.35 trillion
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    Why do we do this to ourselves? I like both

    BOL

     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:36 AM ET #14

    Here's a ATS stat for you Scal

    -- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS as a dog when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

    I like the under. So far this year in the rematch game between opponents, the O/U has gone the other way of first game.
    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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    Here's a ATS stat for you Scal

    -- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS as a dog when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

    I like the under. So far this year in the rematch game between opponents, the O/U has gone the other way of first game.
     
    DiscoD69
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 10:56 AM ET #15

    BOL Scal 
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    BOL Scal 
     
    luckyly
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:05 AM ET #16

    MY DOGGY'S,,49ERS,,AND UR BUCKS,,,,

    BOL 

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    MY DOGGY'S,,49ERS,,AND UR BUCKS,,,,

    BOL 

     
    luckyly
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:06 AM ET #17

    CK,,CK,,TAKIN MONEY LINE ALSO,,,
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    CK,,CK,,TAKIN MONEY LINE ALSO,,,
     
    BDub2308
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:09 AM ET #18

    Star rating scal

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    Star rating scal

     
    murderinc85
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:16 AM ET #19

    On the opposite side BOL
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    On the opposite side BOL
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:23 AM ET #20

    scal im actually on atlanta. at this point i dont trust luvy with the simple act of revenge. i thought for sure you were gonna do a writeup for the lakers tonight. good luck. im only on atlanta small. mike smith another fool has a great record off a bye.
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    scal im actually on atlanta. at this point i dont trust luvy with the simple act of revenge. i thought for sure you were gonna do a writeup for the lakers tonight. good luck. im only on atlanta small. mike smith another fool has a great record off a bye.
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:31 AM ET #21

    Scalabrine

     I see you have a Couple of IDIOTS that started New Alias's w/ our usernames here Bashing & Trolling useless comments ... how original 


    It's being taken care of 
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Scalabrine

     I see you have a Couple of IDIOTS that started New Alias's w/ our usernames here Bashing & Trolling useless comments ... how original 


    It's being taken care of 
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:32 AM ET #22

    Not on my radar this play but GL today scalabrine
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Not on my radar this play but GL today scalabrine
     
    Rocko5516
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:34 AM ET #23

    What is the weather in Tampa? I live here in fort lauderdale and heavy rain from the big storm up north
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    What is the weather in Tampa? I live here in fort lauderdale and heavy rain from the big storm up north
     
    rjas44
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:35 AM ET #24

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    DOVJAK
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    Posted: Nov. 9, 2014 - 11:48 AM ET #25

    bol,but i can not bet the bucs
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    bol,but i can not bet the bucs
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