At the start of the season I posted on how the points don't matter in NFL games as far as winning or losing a bet(s). This is a known fact (unknown to most) year after year. Just pick the outright winner of the game and don't worry about the points. Have a knack for picking game winners straight up ?.....well, If you do take a look. After 4 weeks in the NFL the PDM total so far are : 52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4). I will be back at mid season with your next update, till then, best of luck to you all. Ice Man
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
At the start of the season I posted on how the points don't matter in NFL games as far as winning or losing a bet(s). This is a known fact (unknown to most) year after year. Just pick the outright winner of the game and don't worry about the points. Have a knack for picking game winners straight up ?.....well, If you do take a look. After 4 weeks in the NFL the PDM total so far are : 52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4). I will be back at mid season with your next update, till then, best of luck to you all. Ice Man
Spider-P.D.M. means that the winner of the game covers the spread. So if you like a fav., don't worry about the spread. If you like a dog, take the money line, don't worry about the points.
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Spider-P.D.M. means that the winner of the game covers the spread. So if you like a fav., don't worry about the spread. If you like a dog, take the money line, don't worry about the points.
I usually throw out games where the line is 7 or more, and a significant number of games are at least 7 points margin of victory. There are even a noteworthy number of games where the margin is at least 10 points. I agree with Ice Man. As a starting point, go with who you will think will win the game, except in the case of the Bucs playing the Steelers.
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I usually throw out games where the line is 7 or more, and a significant number of games are at least 7 points margin of victory. There are even a noteworthy number of games where the margin is at least 10 points. I agree with Ice Man. As a starting point, go with who you will think will win the game, except in the case of the Bucs playing the Steelers.
Spider-P.D.M. means that the winner of the game covers the spread. So if you like a fav., don't worry about the spread. If you like a dog, take the money line, don't worry about the points.
Thank You
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Quote Originally Posted by facehead:
Spider-P.D.M. means that the winner of the game covers the spread. So if you like a fav., don't worry about the spread. If you like a dog, take the money line, don't worry about the points.
it's the same in college--about 75% the past 3 years.
I have never tracked PDM in college games, but have been told that the % are much much lower, not that a few years couldn't be in line with the NFL %'s. NFL is year in and year out. Good luck to you.
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Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:
it's the same in college--about 75% the past 3 years.
I have never tracked PDM in college games, but have been told that the % are much much lower, not that a few years couldn't be in line with the NFL %'s. NFL is year in and year out. Good luck to you.
interesting thread..... for example if you think Arizona +7 against denver has a value just bet Zona ml....
i might parlay Zona and Rams ml this week than.
Exactly, ICE MAN posted this last year, I went back and checked, sure enough he was right, 89% chance POINTS DONT MATTER so far this season, took the Chefs ML and Bolts -12 with confidence this past weekend, good luck fellas
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Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:
interesting thread..... for example if you think Arizona +7 against denver has a value just bet Zona ml....
i might parlay Zona and Rams ml this week than.
Exactly, ICE MAN posted this last year, I went back and checked, sure enough he was right, 89% chance POINTS DONT MATTER so far this season, took the Chefs ML and Bolts -12 with confidence this past weekend, good luck fellas
Thats right, points don't matter 83% of the time. But that 17% is where you will NEVER know which games will hit on losing but covering. So playing ML on dogs while profitable can hurt you. Lets say you play 4 dogs ML and 1 dog wins outright, 1 lose ATS and 2 covers ATS. Depending on the value of the ML play won you're in the hole when had you played the points yours be 3-1. Instead you're 1-3. So IMO thats a very stupid way to look at it is playing ML on dogs simply because you DONT know which games will hit and which will win.
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Thats right, points don't matter 83% of the time. But that 17% is where you will NEVER know which games will hit on losing but covering. So playing ML on dogs while profitable can hurt you. Lets say you play 4 dogs ML and 1 dog wins outright, 1 lose ATS and 2 covers ATS. Depending on the value of the ML play won you're in the hole when had you played the points yours be 3-1. Instead you're 1-3. So IMO thats a very stupid way to look at it is playing ML on dogs simply because you DONT know which games will hit and which will win.
Very interesting insight... I think as more people play teasers,, i myself have been notciing points landing outside of that 12-14 point window.. This would effectively kill teasers.. This year its been hitting a high clip outside of the window...
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OP,
Very interesting insight... I think as more people play teasers,, i myself have been notciing points landing outside of that 12-14 point window.. This would effectively kill teasers.. This year its been hitting a high clip outside of the window...
This won't sit well with many of our - "getting the best line" - obsessed brethren
Nor will those sharps who come in here and take a team like the Redskins at +7 points and wear their pick like a badge of honor. I read this stat on this very forum last year and have been betting accordingly.
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Quote Originally Posted by tikitom:
This won't sit well with many of our - "getting the best line" - obsessed brethren
Nor will those sharps who come in here and take a team like the Redskins at +7 points and wear their pick like a badge of honor. I read this stat on this very forum last year and have been betting accordingly.
Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.
The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen. The likelihood of another outcome is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."
Unfortunately, this doesn't help you. It doesn't. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time. (3.54% pushes)
In 2012 the numbers are similar. Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time. 'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time. (1.57% pushes.)
In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time. (3.91% pushes.)
THOSE percentages are meaningful. I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.
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Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.
The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen. The likelihood of another outcome is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."
Unfortunately, this doesn't help you. It doesn't. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time. (3.54% pushes)
In 2012 the numbers are similar. Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time. 'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time. (1.57% pushes.)
In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time. (3.91% pushes.)
THOSE percentages are meaningful. I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.
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