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YOUR P.D.M. (POINTS DON'T MATTER) UPDATE

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Posts: 49

begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15267

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 3:19 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.

Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.

The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.

Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen. The likelihood of another outcome is very high.

Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."

Unfortunately, this doesn't help you. It doesn't. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.

Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time. (3.54% pushes)

In 2012 the numbers are similar. Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time. 'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time. (1.57% pushes.)

In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time. (3.91% pushes.)

THOSE percentages are meaningful. I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.

Then what we need is a breakdown of the favorites covering at various point spreads. In other words, what's the magic number at which point the spread starts to matter (in terms of a cover) when betting favorites? Is it 5, 6, 7 etc... For example, what % of favorites in the 7 point range, cover that number when they win? What % of favorites in the 10 point range cover when they win?

Ed-Collins

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 1634

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 7:09 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

I agree that would be more beneficial than just a P.D.M record of 52-7-2.

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55593

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 7:23 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

I agree that would be more beneficial than just a P.D.M record of 52-7-2.

Not really.

Natty68

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 3302

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 7:25 PM ET #29

COULD NOT AGREE MORE! Woulda went 8-3 this weekend had I stuck with moneyline bets but instead I got skinned alive on backdoor covers. I know it's sacrilege to suggest laying 200 plus on heavy faves but a small profit is still a profit. Unfortunately for me Bovada doesn't allow moneyline betting on heavy faves.

As long as they pretend to pay me I will pretend to work

Sire

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 29

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 9:15 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by The.Ice.Man:

At the start of the season I posted on how the points don't matter in NFL games as far as winning or losing a bet(s). This is a known fact (unknown to most) year after year. Just pick the outright winner of the game and don't worry about the points. Have a knack for picking game winners straight up ?.....well, If you do take a look. After 4 weeks in the NFL the PDM total so far are : 52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4). I will be back at mid season with your next update, till then, best of luck to you all. Ice Man

I'm gonna go ahead and be "that guy" are you saying bet the moneyline everygame. Or just pick the winer to cover and they usually cover if they win. Sorry. New at the online thing

RichieRich97

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 1609

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 9:36 PM ET #31

Sire he is saying that if you like the dog bet the money line because you are leaving money on the table otherwise because if they cover they will most likely win. If you like the fav to cover bet them with the spread and swallow the points because if they win they will cover too so don't risk losing more money on a -200 line

shug1929

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 38

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 11:00 PM ET #32

i agree that your pdm record of 52-7 is quite "impressive", but i am in complete 100% agreement with ed-collins. it doesnt help you! it doesnt help you identify which favorites win and cover (like denver or san diego last week) or which underdogs win and cover (like buffalo or new england last week) or which favorites win and dont cover (like dallas or new orleans last week). it doesnt help identify any of these or any other games or situational aspects. all pdm really tells us is that the winner of the game covers the spread at an astonishingly high rate. good luck all.

smarterthanyou

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2014

Posts: 2341

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 11:39 PM ET #33

obviously, it doesn't tell you which side to wager, but you don't have to worry about how 'tight' the lines are, or if seattle can cover 20 points against the jags.

haymo

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 1825

Posted: Oct. 8, 2014 - 11:59 PM ET #34

agree shug the record is impressive but its not easy to pick the winner!!!!

shug1929

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 38

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:46 AM ET #35

^^^ definitely agree haymo. that is my point!. if it was easy we would all be rich! the % of winning teams covering the pointspread is high because essentially you have two scenarios that produce a win (favorite wins and covers or underdog wins and de facto covers) and only one scenario that produces a loss (favorite wins but doesnt cover). but again this doesnt help identify which games and sides are which. all pdm says is that if you can correctly predict the winner of an nfl game you will cover approximately 88% of the time. good luck all.

Ed-Collins

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Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 1634

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 8:21 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:

obviously, it doesn't tell you which side to wager, but you don't have to worry about how 'tight' the lines are, or if seattle can cover 20 points against the jags.

Ah. Yes you do have to worry if Seattle can cover 20 points against the Jag. Because with a 20 point spread, you are NOT going to see a favorite covering at a 52-7-2 clip! A 20 point spread has a much, MUCH more chance of the spread coming into play. The window is larger for the favorite to win but not cover.

This is why train69 is wrong when he says "Not really" to my reply that a breakdown could only be more beneficial. How can it not be more beneficial? 52-7-2 means nothing. A breakdown of anything is always helpful.

If I told you that our company of three departments lost $10,000 last quarter, that's not nearly as beneficial as me telling you our company of three departments lost $10,000 - Department A lost $1, Department B gained $1, and Department C lost $10,000. That second piece of information tells you MUCH more.

scottstalker

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 63

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 8:46 AM ET #37

It's been around for along time. It's true, percentage's are correct. Now try and do it? Just pick the winner and play it. NFL, not NCAAF, Fav. lines can get to high, sometimes. Get lines early on favs, late with dogs, to play it more in the favor of the player,

Now, it's not as easy as it sounds. GL to all.

Hustlehard23

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 268

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:25 PM ET #38

That's what he's saying, pick the winner and forget the rest, Den -10 is a lot of points, don't worry about it, the % is in your favor IF you think Den will win the game, I've been hitting a few ML Dogs with this thinking, the points are more public perception than actual spread in talent, these teams are as good or bad as you think, Vegas makes $ off your perception

Winteriscoming

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 173

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:30 PM ET #39

Great posts Ed Collins.

Winteriscoming

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 173

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:33 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by Natty68:

COULD NOT AGREE MORE! Woulda went 8-3 this weekend had I stuck with moneyline bets but instead I got skinned alive on backdoor covers. I know it's sacrilege to suggest laying 200 plus on heavy faves but a small profit is still a profit. Unfortunately for me Bovada doesn't allow moneyline betting on heavy faves.

You need a new book!

Winteriscoming

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 173

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:39 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by Hustlehard23:

That's what he's saying, pick the winner and forget the rest, Den -10 is a lot of points, don't worry about it, the % is in your favor IF you think Den will win the game, I've been hitting a few ML Dogs with this thinking, the points are more public perception than actual spread in talent, these teams are as good or bad as you think, Vegas makes $ off your perception

Yes.

begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15267

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:41 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

Ah. Yes you do have to worry if Seattle can cover 20 points against the Jag. Because with a 20 point spread, you are NOT going to see a favorite covering at a 52-7-2 clip! A 20 point spread has a much, MUCH more chance of the spread coming into play. The window is larger for the favorite to win but not cover.

This is why train69 is wrong when he says "Not really" to my reply that a breakdown could only be more beneficial. How can it not be more beneficial? 52-7-2 means nothing. A breakdown of anything is always helpful.

If I told you that our company of three departments lost $10,000 last quarter, that's not nearly as beneficial as me telling you our company of three departments lost $10,000 - Department A lost $1, Department B gained $1, and Department C lost $10,000. That second piece of information tells you MUCH more.

Now it would be great if someone can give us this breakdown; i.e., favorites covering vs the spread.

URZ262

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 1367

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:46 PM ET #43

don't you just love it when squares come up with an aha! moment and come up with a "system" that has exactly zero mathematical edge

URZ262

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 1367

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:48 PM ET #44

here is a better system for you

take a coin out of your pocket and take the favorite if it lands heads and the dog if it lands tails, i am sure this system will be an improvement over your current one

zamigo6

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 13130

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:56 PM ET #45

Except to echo ed-collins point, the percentage for points not mattering definitely takes a decrease at double digit points. It's nearly impossible for this not to be a fact. For example, I would imagine less games are decided by fewer the 3 points than games that are decided by fewer than say 13 points. . The question is how much does the percentage decrease...In other words, there may be a thresh hold at a certain number where the PDM probability is no longer in your favor, and finding out that thresh hold would be key to using this system to profit...

wizard1183

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 820

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:02 PM ET #46

So umm why had a point spread if it doesn't matter? Seems ridiculous to play the spreads. Just play ML on all dogs and favs.

wizard1183

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 820

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:04 PM ET #47

Better yet! yet just tease everything up or down or parlay! Easy $$$$!!!!!!!!!! lol

begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15267

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:04 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

That's what I've been saying.

HoldingXYZ

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 6667

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:20 PM ET #49

I think OP is on the right track,,, I've data mined all of the spreads for the last 6 years of spreads,, there's no consistency and not enough of an edge to support a play based on that,,, However as some of you mentioned,, Its another angle to find outright dogs,, or upsets ultimately and OP is using this as a basis to narrow down the numbers... As stat geeks call it and what books use is,,Exponential smoothing to round off numbers on a larger scale...

It might be easier to zoom in on all of the upsets,, and maybe you will find something that isnt random..

Here's a tip,, taking a home dog of 3 or less on the ML on "NON PRIMETIME" GAMES is different than taking the homedog on a PRIMTIME GAME... However,, if you dont mine this data and have this mapped out by then ,, just forget it,, ... Without the data there's nothing to backtest...

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