Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.
The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen. The likelihood of another outcome is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."
Unfortunately, this doesn't help you. It doesn't. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time. (3.54% pushes)
In 2012 the numbers are similar. Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time. 'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time. (1.57% pushes.)
In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time. (3.91% pushes.)
THOSE percentages are meaningful. I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.
Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.
Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.
The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.
Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window. Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen. The likelihood of another outcome is very high.
Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."
Unfortunately, this doesn't help you. It doesn't. You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.
Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time. (3.54% pushes)
In 2012 the numbers are similar. Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time. 'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time. (1.57% pushes.)
In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time. (3.91% pushes.)
THOSE percentages are meaningful. I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.
Then what we need is a breakdown of the favorites covering at various point spreads. In other words, what's the magic number at which point the spread starts to matter (in terms of a cover) when betting favorites? Is it 5, 6, 7 etc... For example, what % of favorites in the 7 point range, cover that number when they win? What % of favorites in the 10 point range cover when they win?
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