To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

YOU OBVIOUSLY DIDN'T READ MY POST, THE 7TH GAME (THE MONDAY NITE GAME) ALMOST ALWAYS HAS LINE MOVES. YOU CAN WIN BOTH BETS, YOU CAN PUSH ONE BET AND WIN THE OTHER (2 WAYS) AND YOU WILL ALWAYS GET THE 6 TEAMER VALUE.  WHEN YOU BET A PARLAY ALWAYS PUT A GAME THAT HASN'T KICKOFF YET AS YOUR LAST GAME.

I will put the guaranteed money in my pocket everytime..........

Vanzack, I get your point when talking about the general pointspread bets. I will do some hedging also. What I look for is line movement on a later game, such as the Saints/49ers where it opened at 4.5 and has gone to 6. I have the Saints at -5 and will look to hedge the dog at +6 or better.

 I also back up my 4 teamer with a 3-team round robin, this way if I'm alive on Monday night, I have locked in a profit with a possible middle. At that point, I consider the Monday night hedge like I would with a smaller bet with the chance with a chance to win both sides or even push a side and win a side.

The main reason I like the hedge is that 50% chance of winning the last game seems to lose more often than 50% when you get to it. Your original 4 teamer had 16-1 odds against and it doesn't know which is the first game or the last game.

So you could look at it either way.

game 1= 16-1...game 1= 50/50

game 2= 8-1...game 2= 4-1

game 3= 4-1...game 3= 8-1

game 4= 50/50...game 4= 16-1

your true odds are 16-1 either way of bringing all 4 teams in.

So if you play the 3-teamer with a planned hedge 4-teamer, you get the 600 and bank part of that 4 teamer. That's a nice end to the week after sweating out Sunday.  

This thread is filled with all kinds of nonsense and I honestly can't believe it has gone on this long.  I don't believe in hedging.  I'm not going to rant and rave about why I don't hedge.  If you like hedging, fine, it's your money.  It's not for me though.  I'd rather take picks I like and if those hit, then I'll rollover some of those winnings into another pick.  Do what you want, it's your money.  I'm not saying anyone is wrong for hedging.  I just don't agree with it.  What I do disagree with is pompous, arrogant, shitheads who come into forums and talk about their professions and social status, and how much more money they wager than other cappers (i.e. "I bet 16k last weekend on college and pro football and that's more money than most people bet in a year).  You're a douche.  Good for you if you wager 16k and good for you if you wager $16.  But guess what?  I don't give a shit.  Bet your kid's college funds on a single game for all I care.  But don't be condescending with your wagers.  The fact that one would even bring this kind of business up spells out plain and simple that you're a prick.  Not surprised that guy's a lawyer.  Most of them are scumbags.  Good post Van

It comes down to bankroll too. If your up and on the house money, I would say let it ride. If you think you will need more cash than you have and can lock in a percentage more with no risk, why not. It's not aggressive, but it will get the job done.

good thread, Van

good post but i think you accidentally double counted your wagered amounts plus you need to include non wagered amount in "total pocket" value and subtract $ 100 for parlay loss - see red

had to edit length of original post to reply due to 7800 character limit

Van if you are trying to convince someone not to take guaranteed money then you need to give your head a shake. People win the lottery every week and many opt for the cash payout vs. the consistent flow of money over 20 years. Even though in the long run the 20 years is a greater sum. Of course the present value is taken for many reasons, one being that life is terminal and there is no guarantee you will be around in 20 years or for that matter around long enough for the sample in your example to be large enough for those parlays to come through enough for the money to be greater. So there is nothing wrong with taking insurance or hedging the last game of a parlay.

Now, playing a parlay to begin with may be fundamentaly wrong. But once played hedging the last play if posed with the opportunity is the bettors choice. Call it buyers remorse if you like (I played a 4 team parlay but on second thought l maybe should have played a 3 teamer so l will take a guaranteed sum instead of incurring the risk of the 4th game.) 

it seems like based on the comments made by some very stupid covers members, the only guaranteed money we should be referring to is that of the sportsbooks who book the action of people who like to hedge(are you people really that f'in stupid, how can you not understand that hedging is idiotic....morons you should never be in a position to hedge, leave the last game(later game) off of your parlay!

[Quote: Originally Posted by spiff]

You think incorrectly. You clearly did not understand my post.

 yes ,my bad i misread the full $ 676 was being wagered in each line:1 & 2 

i misread it as $100 wagered in line 1 and $ 576 in line 2

3 years later - and I am still dumbfounded by the widespread misinformation about "guaranteed money".  You guarantee yourself MORE money if you dont hedge, or better yet dont put yourself in a position to hedge.

The most important statement in this thread - and one that cant be argued is:

IF YOU ARE IN A POSITION TO HEDGE, YOU HAVE ALREADY MADE A FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKE.

That means that even if you have a choice of hedging - you have already fucked up. 

This thread is an incredible study in just how misinformed gamblers can be about math and probability, and how they will argue until they are blue in the face against math.  It is really incredible.

Bingo.  Congratulations.

God I wish this over inflated ego would just shut the hell up !

You really think you are so f'ing smart.

 If I thought as highly of myself as you do I would do what I recommend you do..............GO F@#% YOURSELF!!!!

Talking to Van...what happened to your pic with you flashing like 10 $20 bills  ..playa!!!

The downside of being smarter than everyone else is sometimes you are assumed to be egotistical.

Missed this the first time around I aint reading 24 pages so I will mention the psychological angle of why people hedge.

The math on the 3 to 4 teamer is very insightful the only problem is does someone have the balls to bet all of their winning on the 4th game.

Here is a scenerio

1.  Start with $100 hit a 3 team parlay paying 6-1 so now you have $700 most people will not have the confidence to ride out the $700 on the last game.  They would in most scenerios bet $200 and guarentee themselves a balance of $500. 

2.  Its like a buddy saying Iam going to bet $200 on black 4 straight times and walk away.  First bet $200 no big deal second bet $400 manageable 3rd bet $800 buddy might be shaking last bet $1600 I guarentee most people will say fuck it and bet $600 tops, and pocket the $1000.

Even though we are all gamblers we like when we can guarentee a profit.

Van is not the almighty he was exposed once years ago, but anybody would be stupid to go against him.  He's intelligent, brings more to the table than most, and has a shitload of time on his hands to make you look and feel stupid.