05/05/2022

Good morning Gentlemen and Jules

Happy Cinco de Mayo. Celebration for that will come later. Welcome back to the party Tampa, Minnesota and Edmonton. Good night Boston, well not quite, the stats say you have a 12.7% chance of winning. It was discussed last night about the amount of penalties in games, especially in that Canes/Bs game. I thought back to the Bolts/Cats first round series last year and same thing. Buttman has mentioned this is the reason they seed the playoffs like they do. They want this divisional rivalry, heated match-ups. The league likes it. I mean other than the die hard Leafs/Bolts fan, who actually flipped the channel away from that Canes/B's game to watch in Toronto? Hell, I didn't and I did not have a bet on that game. Had one of my non-hockey friend text me after that Lindholm trucking "damn, I didn't realize it was like that". Ding, ding...league drawing non-hockey fans. Over/under on the number of goalies that will be knocked out of this year's playoffs? 

Tampa is now 15-0 following a playoff loss. Wild are now 1-14-1 vs Blues. Mike Smith returns. So flip the page. Will the Panthers go in a 2-0 hole tonight? Latest up date is DeSmith is labeled as day to day. Not good. Can Louie, Louie catch lightning in a bottle twice? I look for the Rangers and Panthers to respond similar to the Wild and the Bolts. Will keep watching this mornings pre-game skates to see who is one the ice and who is not. Tom Wilson? Would be a big loss for the Caps. Preds, what time is your tee times next week. Actually look for a repeat performance out of the Avs tonight. Think they realize to dispense of the Preds early and get the rest as the Blues/Wild series might be a long one. Man, if I could only stay up for the Flames/Stars game. Another under should be an automatic play in this series. Can Dallas get more than 16 shots on goal? 

Let's see what the day brings shall we. What do you want to talk about? 

Guess I should have pulled up lines this morning. 

Rangers already at -156 at my book. The rest are -230 and above, including the -245 Cats at home. Didn't they lose the 1st game? I am leaning their tt over though, I mean it's the same price as the Stars tt under.  What is embarrassing is Avs tt is again set at 4.5. You can get the Caps PL at -120. So, let me get this straight, the 3 meetings this year, prior to game 1, were all 1 goal games and the first playoff game went to the Caps and now I can get a goal and a half for only 120?  Ding, ding, ding...Vegas giving us a hint? 

Heading to the AVS game tonight!!!! Have a great day!!!!

Went ahead like the majority and played the Rangers in regulation for plus money without DeSmith info. 

Great job you do here GA!!! I’m going to ranger game tonight and dropping a DIME on them ??

We figured out the winning combination in yesterday's thread. Let's see if we can do the same for today.

As of now, I really like NYR/FLA/COL/DAL.

Yes, a few of the home faves are "easy" calls but no, I don't think ALL home favorites win today. I like Dallas to be the one that comes through (and they're a system play).

Give me your winning combo if you disagree. 

Let's go back to the well for one last time and say the Panthers will show up and score, and score...

Florida tt over 3.5

Omega- Rangers as a fad of Louie. Avs - no way in hell they lose to the Preds. Dallas is a tough draw but it is a Lippsman Split play. Worth the shot imo. 

Wilson out tonight 

Louis Domingue will start Game 2. "He’s confident," Sullivan said. "He has a little swagger to him. I think that serves him well.” When asked if Tristan Jarry or Casey DeSmith could be available for Game 3, Sullivan said they're not thinking that far ahead right now.

@GASportsDoc

 So I'm assuming by Vegas giving us a hint, you mean it's too good to be true and the Cats are gonna win in a blowout?  Or are you saying the Caps keep it close and the -120 on the PL is a gift?  

@Wufpack

 Well, Caps PL has dropped to -118. My thinking, and only my opinion as it is not always right. Why would you throw out that number and dangle it like low hanging fruit, unless Vegas wants people to jump on it. Yes, in my opinion this says Florida wins and wins big. Cats tt Tuesday night was 3.5 at -125. Today, 3.5 -160. What changed? Anything can happen, but to me this says Cats win. 

Let's see if the Rags line jumps with the announcement of Louie in net. In the first 20 minutes, not so much. 

@GASportsDoc

 i have:

+1.5 (-115)

-1.5 (-105)

and that now seems more suspicious

Interesting stat from listening to The Point on NHL radio. In Tampa's 14 bounce back wins after a loss, they have only allowed 20 goals total (5 shutouts) and average beating the team by more than 2 goals. Now that is amazing stat. First they can continue to bounce back. What are the odds there? Secondly, not only do they bounce back but they bounce back with vengeance. In other words, they kick your ass after you beat them. 

@GASportsDoc

Great TBAY stat to tuck away in the memory banks for next season, Doc.  Also for the rest of the playoffs, of course.  Thanks much!

Hey Doc...I hear ya about the regular season and the Caps PL.

My two cents, regular season the Panthers were home twice vs Caps (11/4 and 11/30) and lines were:

WAS +137 / PL +1.5 -182

FLA  -151 / PL -1.5  +162

WAS +125 / PL +1.5 -205

FLA  -138 / PL -1.5 +175

You can see the PL works inversely to the ML.  As the books offered lines for those 2 games, the Caps were getting +137 the first game, and then only +125 the second game.  Probably by 11/30 the Caps were playing better.

If top-tier teams play during the regular season, we might see tight lines like FLA -125/ TBAY +105 (4/24) or WAS -120/ TOR +100 (4/24).  So the PL price is gonna go way up to account for a really good team getting +1.5 goals...TBAY -210 and TOR -245 were the PL prices.  As the ML gets more expensive (david vs goliath game) the PL price will drop.  

But what happened with the Caps/Panthers here in the playoffs is the books jacked up the MLs by 60% or so from the regular season prices.  Not on all the games; looks like just this series.  They could have doubled the MLs on PIT/NYR, or on TOR/TBAY for sure, but they didn't.  Hmmm.

FLA at home vs WAS during the season was -151 and -138.  Now the price of Game 1 jumped to FLA -245/ WAS +218 and Game 2 is around FLA -242/ WAS +205.  Driving up the ML drives down the PL, and so WAS PL for Game 2 is -120 like you said.

Some regular season comparisons:  EDM -250/CMB +210 and PL was CMB -115.  CAR -240/ WPG +200 and PL was WPG-115.  DAL -250/ NJ +210 and PL was NJD -115.  As the teams' MLs goes up the PLs come down.  The difference in those 3 examples is that those teams aren't evenly matched of course, but it all starts with the ML fave price and goes from there.  

The -120 PL definitely has a neon sign on it, and not saying you're not right...you could be spot on!  Like you said, who really knows but your team totals numbers is another indicator of something possible being up.  Thing is, these are all top of the table teams, and even though NSH especially, but probably DAL also are behind the 8-ball from the first puck drop, why did they pick this series to "adjust" the prices.  It's not david vs goliath; maybe because larger market teams...but then why not NYR/PIT?

Game 1 Caps PL was -115 and it wasn't necessary; the old question of who's playing head games/influencing...or is it just us overthinking stuff.  I'll be the first to raise my hand on the "overthinking stuff" question lol.  If the ML prices weren't jacked then we'd have Caps PLs like -160 or -170 and we'd probably still be scratching our head if it was a good option lol.

Cheers 

@GASportsDoc

 Hello doc you're on the cats and rags tonight

Think avs should roll again

And stars have a shot 

@GASportsDoc

 Thanks for the insight Doc, that's what I figured you meant, which is unfortunate since I'm a Caps fan.  No Tom Wilson tonight leans even more in the Panthers favor.  Got any thoughts on the over/under 6.5 for this game?

Here are some more things (in my simple mind) that points toward Panthers. 

If I asked you which team you had more confidence in Panthers or Avs tonight, which one would you say? My guess is 95% on Avs. Well, how come the 1P line -1/2 is -105 for the Avs but -110 for the Panthers? 

Like I said, all these numbers to me says Panthers. Hope I am right. 

My card tonight: (4-0 last night, 1-3 the night before, 2-1 Monday, 7-4 playoffs so good, bad, good...is this a bad?)

Rangers in regulation

Panthers tt over

Stars ML sprinkle because it's the Lippsman Split

@GASportsDoc

 it means you have a better read on the other series 

which i think i do too, i dont like much on the board with the heavy juice, and i dont have team totals or id jump on panthers with ya

@dubz4dummyz

 Never looked at it that way...great point. It is easy to have a handle on the Leafs Had to throw that jab in there. 

Rangers opened at -140 now up to -165

and the only reason I am on the Stars is to follow the system. Personally, I like the over in that game. It is only for a very small sprinkle, like a quarter of regular bets. 

Just read Gallant's statements. He told his team he thought they didn't take enough shots on goal and passed up too many opportunities. Hmmmm...look for the Rangers to pepper Louie. Now I have to go and consider Rangers tt. 

@GASportsDoc

ya i shoulda listened to you and held off on bolts game 1, would have had much better profit on the G2 win instead of split and tiny profit

but i knew the bolts were taking 1 in toronto

glad i passed on bruins getting 1 in carolina

and should played blues game 1 but chickened out

Won with Cats/Caps 1P the other night. In fact, Florida at home vs Eastern conference, the 1P over has hit 9 times. Do I dare at -175 tonight? 

Taking a shot with Under 6-122 in the Pens/Rangers game

Pens will try and protect the rookie and be a bit more conservative tonight and Shesterkin will stand on his head again is what I foresee.

Small play

g/l